IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.</li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trial-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97757" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on bottom quartile gross and operating margin, mid-tier FCF generation and unusual cash collection cycle.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
In Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on bottom quartile gross and operating margin, mid-tier FCF generation and unusual cash collection cycle.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a>, a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.</li>
<li>Trial aims to act as a one-stop shopping store where a consumer can buy whatever they want at a great price. Trial’s basic pricing strategy is Every Day Low Price.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile revenue growth, encouraging same-store sales growth, solid margin profile and cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP), a discount store operator in Japan, is seeking to raise US$380 million at the IPO reference price of JPY2,000. Pricing on 26 March.
Trial aims to act as a one-stop shopping store where a consumer can buy whatever they want at a great price. Trial’s basic pricing strategy is Every Day Low Price.
The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile revenue growth, encouraging same-store sales growth, solid margin profile and cash generation.


Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Inflation remains the biggest headwind but most retail formats will see growth in 2023 with e-commerce expected to become the largest channel in the next 18 months.</li>
<li>Supermarkets are ripe for consolidation as new competitors emerge from the discount sector and online while convenience stores will consolidate further in a saturated sector.</li>
<li>Department stores will rebound further but only the leading firms will survive in a contracting sector.</li>
</ul>


Inflation remains the biggest headwind but most retail formats will see growth in 2023 with e-commerce expected to become the largest channel in the next 18 months.
Supermarkets are ripe for consolidation as new competitors emerge from the discount sector and online while convenience stores will consolidate further in a saturated sector.
Department stores will rebound further but only the leading firms will survive in a contracting sector.


<ul>
<li>Inbound tourism only got going again from October but the pent up demand to visit Japan has meant a surge in visitors. </li>
<li>Since many tourists also have stuffed wallets due to curtailed spending during the pandemic and the Yen is at very low levels, there is much higher spending. </li>
<li>Key beneficiaries are listed below among department stores, premium fashion stores and drugstores.</li>
</ul>


Inbound tourism only got going again from October but the pent up demand to visit Japan has meant a surge in visitors. 
Since many tourists also have stuffed wallets due to curtailed spending during the pandemic and the Yen is at very low levels, there is much higher spending. 
Key beneficiaries are listed below among department stores, premium fashion stores and drugstores.


Inbound Tourism up 50%, Spending Almost at 2019 Levels

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-pacific-international-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)</a>’s 2QFY23 was a touch above consensus with revenue at ¥504.8bn (consensus: ¥497.6bn) and OP at ¥33.6bn (consensus: ¥30.3bn).</li>
<li>With consensus cautious about personal brands potential, earnings have beaten consensus in each of the past five quarters.</li>
<li>Having already proven the personal brands earnings potential, we think it is unwarranted for consensus to discount PPIH’s personal brands growth.</li>
</ul>



Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)’s 2QFY23 was a touch above consensus with revenue at ¥504.8bn (consensus: ¥497.6bn) and OP at ¥33.6bn (consensus: ¥30.3bn).
With consensus cautious about personal brands potential, earnings have beaten consensus in each of the past five quarters.
Having already proven the personal brands earnings potential, we think it is unwarranted for consensus to discount PPIH’s personal brands growth.


PPIH – Consensus Is Discounting Personal Brands Potential

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Trial Holdings IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on bottom quartile gross and operating margin, mid-tier FCF generation and unusual cash collection cycle.

Arun George

Trial Holdings IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on top quartile revenue growth, encouraging same-store sales growth, solid margin profile and cash generation.

Arun George

Outlook for Japanese Retail in 2023

Most Japanese retailers can look forward to a good year in 2023 but there will be challenges for formats like supermarkets where consolidation is...

Michael Causton

Inbound Tourism up 50%, Spending Almost at 2019 Levels

Of course inbound tourism will rebound in Japan in 2023 but spending per visitor may well exceed 2019 levels due to the weak Yen and full wallets....

Michael Causton

PPIH – Consensus Is Discounting Personal Brands Potential

PPIH’s 2QFY23 was a touch above consensus with revenue at ¥504.8bn (consensus: ¥497.6bn) and OP at ¥33.6bn (consensus: ¥30.3bn). With consensus...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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