Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-panther-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27466:1" rel="noopener">Great Panther (GPL US)</a> is a deletion from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a>. There are a lot of float changes that will result in passive flows.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 3.4% and will result in a one-way trade of US$106m at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Most index constituents have traded poorly over the last few months and the stocks with passive inflows could outperform their peers in the short-term.</li>
</ul>



Great Panther (GPL US) is a deletion from the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US). There are a lot of float changes that will result in passive flows.
One way turnover is estimated at 3.4% and will result in a one-way trade of US$106m at the September rebalance.
Most index constituents have traded poorly over the last few months and the stocks with passive inflows could outperform their peers in the short-term.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Delete & Plenty of Float Changes

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

PAAS reported mixed Q222 results that were heavily affected by one-off items stemming from the grade and production underperformance at Dolores. As a result, the company incurred US$155m in non-cash impairments and inventory revaluation charges. FY22 production is now guided towards the lower end of the original expectations and the gold segment cash costs at the top end. On a positive note, the annual mineral resources update revealed good resource replacement rates in the silver segment, and the company announced that Escobal is moving into the next stage of the ILO 169 consultation process. We have revised down our estimates, lowering our valuation to US$27.5/share.

PAAS reported mixed Q222 results that were heavily affected by one-off items stemming from the grade and production underperformance at Dolores. As a result, the company incurred US$155m in non-cash impairments and inventory revaluation charges. FY22 production is now guided towards the lower end of the original expectations and the gold segment cash costs at the top end. On a positive note, the annual mineral resources update revealed good resource replacement rates in the silver segment, and the company announced that Escobal is moving into the next stage of the ILO 169 consultation process. We have revised down our estimates, lowering our valuation to US$27.5/share. 

Pan American Silver - Mixed Q2 results, Escobal progress

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has announced the results of additional infill and exploration drilling at the La Colorada Skarn project. The latest data are based on 22 new drill holes totalling c 18,000m and contain a number of high-grade intercepts, providing a further indication of the project’s scale and potential. The company plans to release an update on the project’s mineral resource estimate in Q322.

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has announced the results of additional infill and exploration drilling at the La Colorada Skarn project. The latest data are based on 22 new drill holes totalling c 18,000m and contain a number of high-grade intercepts, providing a further indication of the project’s scale and potential. The company plans to release an update on the project’s mineral resource estimate in Q322.

Pan American Silver - Positive drill results at La Colorada Skarn

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp-4566bc5d-6053-4c59-9b54-891e37079607" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33288:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresnillo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21939:1" rel="noopener">Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsgate-consolidated-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12544:1" rel="noopener">Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU)</a>, Dakota Gold are adds; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a> and PGM Gold Mining are deletes.</li>
<li>One way turnover is US$390m and there is a big impact on a lot of stocks due to addition, deletion and float changes. Implementation at the close on 17 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)</a> was added to the GDXJ in March and rallied over 30% in 4 days since announcement. Buying this time will be even larger.</li>
</ul>



Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US), Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN), Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU), Dakota Gold are adds; Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ) and PGM Gold Mining are deletes.
One way turnover is US$390m and there is a big impact on a lot of stocks due to addition, deletion and float changes. Implementation at the close on 17 June.

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ) was added to the GDXJ in March and rallied over 30% in 4 days since announcement. Buying this time will be even larger.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flows & Impact

Pan American Silver’s (PAAS’s) Q122 financial results were supported by strong gold and silver sales, while production was affected by the latest COVID-19 outbreak. The company maintained its guidance for FY22 and expects production to be second-half weighted. Costs were generally under control, with an impressive cost performance in the silver segment. Although PAAS is seeing increased cost pressures, its full-year cost expectations remained unchanged. We have updated our estimates to reflect the results and lower commodity prices, reducing our valuation from US$31.0/share to US$29.5/share. Following the recent weakness, the shares look attractive at an FY22e EV/EBITDA of 7.5x.

Pan American Silver’s (PAAS’s) Q122 financial results were supported by strong gold and silver sales, while production was affected by the latest COVID-19 outbreak. The company maintained its guidance for FY22 and expects production to be second-half weighted. Costs were generally under control, with an impressive cost performance in the silver segment. Although PAAS is seeing increased cost pressures, its full-year cost expectations remained unchanged. We have updated our estimates to reflect the results and lower commodity prices, reducing our valuation from US$31.0/share to US$29.5/share. Following the recent weakness, the shares look attractive at an FY22e EV/EBITDA of 7.5x.

Pan American Silver - Q122 results – good cost control

Canada

Pan American Silver Corporation is a primary silver producer.   The Company has seven operating mines in Mexico,  Peru, Argentina and Bolivia and several development projects in USA,  Mexico, Peru and Argentina.

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Pan American Silver (PAAS CN)

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Delete & Plenty of Float Changes

There is only one deletion but there are a lot of stocks with free float changes. Estimated one way turnover is 3.4% resulting in a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

Pan American Silver - Mixed Q2 results, Escobal progress

PAAS reported mixed Q222 results that were heavily affected by one-off items stemming from the grade and production underperformance at Dolores. As...

Edison Investment Research

Pan American Silver - Positive drill results at La Colorada Skarn

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has announced the results of additional infill and exploration drilling at the La Colorada Skarn project. The latest...

Edison Investment Research

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flows & Impact

There are 4 adds and 2 deletes for the GDXJ Index resulting in one-way turnover of 10% and a one-way trade of US$390m. BRMS IJ has a big float...

Brian Freitas

Pan American Silver - Q122 results – good cost control

Pan American Silver’s (PAAS’s) Q122 financial results were supported by strong gold and silver sales, while production was affected by the latest...

Edison Investment Research

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