Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we've recommended shifting to defensives considering our belief that 4165-4200 will cap upside on the $SPX in 2023, while also conceding that a reach to 4300-4325 is possible.</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives and believe that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives</li>
<li>Defensive Sectors including Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX). </li>
</ul>


Since late-January/early-February we've recommended shifting to defensives considering our belief that 4165-4200 will cap upside on the $SPX in 2023, while also conceding that a reach to 4300-4325 is possible.
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives and believe that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives
Defensive Sectors including Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX). 


Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-panther-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27466:1" rel="noopener">Great Panther (GPL US)</a> is a deletion from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a>. There are a lot of float changes that will result in passive flows.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 3.4% and will result in a one-way trade of US$106m at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Most index constituents have traded poorly over the last few months and the stocks with passive inflows could outperform their peers in the short-term.</li>
</ul>



Great Panther (GPL US) is a deletion from the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US). There are a lot of float changes that will result in passive flows.
One way turnover is estimated at 3.4% and will result in a one-way trade of US$106m at the September rebalance.
Most index constituents have traded poorly over the last few months and the stocks with passive inflows could outperform their peers in the short-term.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Delete & Plenty of Float Changes

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp-4566bc5d-6053-4c59-9b54-891e37079607" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33288:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fresnillo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21939:1" rel="noopener">Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsgate-consolidated-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12544:1" rel="noopener">Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU)</a>, Dakota Gold are adds; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a> and PGM Gold Mining are deletes.</li>
<li>One way turnover is US$390m and there is a big impact on a lot of stocks due to addition, deletion and float changes. Implementation at the close on 17 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-minerals-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9136:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ)</a> was added to the GDXJ in March and rallied over 30% in 4 days since announcement. Buying this time will be even larger.</li>
</ul>



Kinross Gold Corp (KGC US), Fresnillo PLC (FRES LN), Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU), Dakota Gold are adds; Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ) and PGM Gold Mining are deletes.
One way turnover is US$390m and there is a big impact on a lot of stocks due to addition, deletion and float changes. Implementation at the close on 17 June.

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS IJ) was added to the GDXJ in March and rallied over 30% in 4 days since announcement. Buying this time will be even larger.


MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flows & Impact

<ul>
<li>Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.</li>
<li>We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.</li>
<li>Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.</li>
</ul>


Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.
We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.
Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.


Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

Canada

Pan American Silver Corporation is a primary silver producer.   The Company has seven operating mines in Mexico,  Peru, Argentina and Bolivia and several development projects in USA,  Mexico, Peru and Argentina.

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Pan American Silver (PAAS CN)

Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

Defensive Sectors including Health Care $XLV, Utilities $RYU $XLU, and Staples $XLP are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price...

Vermilion Research

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: One Delete & Plenty of Float Changes

There is only one deletion but there are a lot of stocks with free float changes. Estimated one way turnover is 3.4% resulting in a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flows & Impact

There are 4 adds and 2 deletes for the GDXJ Index resulting in one-way turnover of 10% and a one-way trade of US$390m. BRMS IJ has a big float...

Brian Freitas

Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

#Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance....

Vermilion Research

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

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