IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bairong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31486:1" rel="noopener">Bairong (6608 HK)</a> is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</p><p>Bairong was listed on the HKEx on 31 March 2021 and raised net proceeds of HK$3,759.0 million at HK$31.80 per share. The shares currently trade 62% below their IPO price. Bairong priced its IPO at the market peak and the shares have collapsed in part due to China’s regulatory reset. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> fell 15% on 5 August after a lockup expiry, as early backers headed for the exit amid fears of China’s widening online crackdown. The ongoing regulatory crackdown has alerted investors to the risk of upcoming expiring lockups.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. The cornerstones investors lock-up period expires on 30 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential share sales post-lockup expiry.</p></div>

Bairong (6608 HK) is a leading independent AI-powered technology platform in China serving the financial services industry. It is the largest independent financial big data analytics solutions provider in China with a 9.0% revenue market share in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.Bairong was listed on the HKEx on 31 March 2021 and raised net proceeds of HK$3,759.0 million at HK$31.80 per share. The shares currently trade 62% below their IPO price. Bairong priced its IPO at the market peak and the shares have collapsed in part due to China’s regulatory reset. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) fell 15% on 5 August after a lockup expiry, as early backers headed for the exit amid fears of China’s widening online crackdown. The ongoing regulatory crackdown has alerted investors to the risk of upcoming expiring lockups.  Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. The cornerstones investors lock-up period expires on 30 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential share sales post-lockup expiry.

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming.  The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory crackdowns (triggering a Tencent and Netease collapse).  Acquisitions ramp up every week (this week alone saw Roblox buy Discord competitor Guilded and Swedish game Holdco Embracer Group snap up three new developers).</p>

Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming.  The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory crackdowns (triggering a Tencent and Netease collapse).  Acquisitions ramp up every week (this week alone saw Roblox buy Discord competitor Guilded and Swedish game Holdco Embracer Group snap up three new developers).

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finaccel-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33791:1" rel="noopener">FinAccel (1411023D SP)</a>, the parent of Kredivo, is the leading buy now, pay later (BNPL) platform in Indonesia with an e-commerce BPNL market share of around 40%-45%. Kredivo intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with VPC Impact Acquisition Holdings II.</p><p>The combined company will have an EV of $2.0 billion and an equity value of $2.5 billion at closing. The deal implies 6.3x 2022 EV/Sales based on Kredivo’s forecasted revenue. The transaction involves a 100% rollover by existing Kredivo shareholders, a $120 million fully committed PIPE (led by Marshall Wace, Corbin Capital, SV Investment, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR US)</a>, Maso Capital, and sponsor Victory Park Capital) in addition to a $55 million convertible note funded by existing investors <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a> and Square Peg. Kredivo is expected to receive over $430 million of gross proceeds. Existing shareholders will have an 83% ownership of the combined company including the concurrent investment. </p><p>The BNPL market is rapidly becoming a must-have product for payment providers. This necessity has spurred the launch of in-house solutions from global payment providers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paypal-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4747:1" rel="noopener">Paypal Holdings (PYPL US)</a> as well the M&amp;A as evidenced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23755:1" rel="noopener">Square Inc (SQ US)</a>'s bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26940:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Touch (APT AU)</a>.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Since its launch in 2016, Kredivo has established itself as a leading BNPL player in Indonesia due to sustainable competitive advantages built around an in-house credit bureau and low customer acquisition costs. Kredivo is not resting on its laurels but increasing its addressable market through international expansion in adjacent countries and the launch of a new business line (Lime). Kredivo is using its market-leading position to deliver high growth with a declining loss margin. Refreshingly the YTD performance suggests that management are well on track to meet their forecasts. Finally, the proposed valuation is also attractive in comparison to global BNPL peers. </p></div>

FinAccel (1411023D SP), the parent of Kredivo, is the leading buy now, pay later (BNPL) platform in Indonesia with an e-commerce BPNL market share of around 40%-45%. Kredivo intends to go public in the US through a SPAC merger with VPC Impact Acquisition Holdings II.The combined company will have an EV of $2.0 billion and an equity value of $2.5 billion at closing. The deal implies 6.3x 2022 EV/Sales based on Kredivo’s forecasted revenue. The transaction involves a 100% rollover by existing Kredivo shareholders, a $120 million fully committed PIPE (led by Marshall Wace, Corbin Capital, SV Investment, Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR US), Maso Capital, and sponsor Victory Park Capital) in addition to a $55 million convertible note funded by existing investors Naver Corp (035420 KS) and Square Peg. Kredivo is expected to receive over $430 million of gross proceeds. Existing shareholders will have an 83% ownership of the combined company including the concurrent investment. The BNPL market is rapidly becoming a must-have product for payment providers. This necessity has spurred the launch of in-house solutions from global payment providers such as Paypal Holdings (PYPL US) as well the M&amp;A as evidenced by Square Inc (SQ US)'s bid for Afterpay Touch (APT AU).  Since its launch in 2016, Kredivo has established itself as a leading BNPL player in Indonesia due to sustainable competitive advantages built around an in-house credit bureau and low customer acquisition costs. Kredivo is not resting on its laurels but increasing its addressable market through international expansion in adjacent countries and the launch of a new business line (Lime). Kredivo is using its market-leading position to deliver high growth with a declining loss margin. Refreshingly the YTD performance suggests that management are well on track to meet their forecasts. Finally, the proposed valuation is also attractive in comparison to global BNPL peers. 

FinAccel/Kredivo SPAC Deal: Smooth Shopping

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Palantir has been one of the hottest tech stocks ever since its IPO in October 2020.</li><li>The Gotham infrastructure mainly supports U.S. governmental agencies and the Foundry platform offers private enterprises and organizations similar capabilities.</li><li>The company's stock has more than doubled in value since its listing and is one of the most expensive tech stocks on the NASDAQ.</li></ul>

Palantir has been one of the hottest tech stocks ever since its IPO in October 2020.The Gotham infrastructure mainly supports U.S. governmental agencies and the Foundry platform offers private enterprises and organizations similar capabilities.The company's stock has more than doubled in value since its listing and is one of the most expensive tech stocks on the NASDAQ.

Palantir Technologies Inc. - Investment Thesis

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Some updated thinking on our shorts: We like the Teradata short setup into 2Q21, and think Tesla may finally be <em>safe</em> to short. Well, safe as it ever gets. Apple remains our preferred large cap short, while Disney we flip from long biased to short biased as Disney+ subscriber numbers have decelerated massively. </p><p></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </p></div>

Some updated thinking on our shorts: We like the Teradata short setup into 2Q21, and think Tesla may finally be safe to short. Well, safe as it ever gets. Apple remains our preferred large cap short, while Disney we flip from long biased to short biased as Disney+ subscriber numbers have decelerated massively. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

United States

Palantir Technologies Inc. develops software to analyze information. The Company offers solutions support many kinds of data including structured, unstructured, relational, temporal, and geospatial. Palantir Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)

Bairong: Upcoming Lock-Up Expiry

Bairong’s pre-IPO investors’ lock-up period expires on 20 September. In this note, we look at the returns of the pre-IPO investors and potential...

Arun George

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #45

Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming. The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory...

Granite Bay Capital

FinAccel/Kredivo SPAC Deal: Smooth Shopping

Kredivo is using its market-leading BNPL position to deliver high growth with a declining loss margin. Refreshingly the forecasts are reasonable...

Arun George

Palantir Technologies Inc. - Investment Thesis

Palantir has been one of the hottest tech stocks ever since its IPO in October 2020. The Gotham infrastructure mainly supports U.S. governmental...

Baptista Research

2H21 Obex Research Short Portfolio

We like the Teradata short setup into 2Q21, and think Tesla may finally be safe to short. Apple remains our preferred large cap short, while...

Aaron Gabin

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