TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><p>When we first began writing about Crowdstrike last summer, we saw a company with a beautiful business model that could generate very high incremental margins over time because of its cloud based architecture...collect data once, monetize many times. This quarter was incredibly strong by any measure, but what really stood out in our work is Crowdstrike's best in class combination of revenue growth and profitability.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

When we first began writing about Crowdstrike last summer, we saw a company with a beautiful business model that could generate very high incremental margins over time because of its cloud based architecture...collect data once, monetize many times. This quarter was incredibly strong by any measure, but what really stood out in our work is Crowdstrike's best in class combination of revenue growth and profitability.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Crowdstrike 3Q21: Like Shooting Fish in a Barrel

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix (NXL AU)</a> will raise about US$698m (A$953m) in its Australia IPO and shares are due to trade tomorrow on a conditional and deferred settlement basis. </p><p>Nuix is a leading provider of investigative analytics and intelligence software. The company runs a software platform called Nuix platform which consists of a data processing engine called Nuix Engine and other software applications.</p><p>We will look at deal dynamics and provide a table for implied EV/Revenue at different share price levels.</p><p>We have earlier covered the deal in:</p><ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nuix-limited-ipo-a-stable-and-predictable-niche" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45748" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited IPO -  A Stable and Predictable Niche</a> </li></ul>

Nuix (NXL AU) will raise about US$698m (A$953m) in its Australia IPO and shares are due to trade tomorrow on a conditional and deferred settlement basis. Nuix is a leading provider of investigative analytics and intelligence software. The company runs a software platform called Nuix platform which consists of a data processing engine called Nuix Engine and other software applications.We will look at deal dynamics and provide a table for implied EV/Revenue at different share price levels.We have earlier covered the deal in:
Nuix Limited IPO -  A Stable and Predictable Niche 

Nuix Limited IPO Trading - Aiming for a Modest Debut

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Necessity is the mother of financial innovation. The non-traditional listings of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spotify-technology-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26772:1" rel="noopener">Spotify Technology SA (SPOT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/slack-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27904:1" rel="noopener">Slack Technologies Inc (WORK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR US)</a> exhibit an increasing trend toward direct listings, in place of traditional IPOs incorporating lock-up agreements and dysfunctional pricing and allocation process.</p>
<p>This week Airbnb announced plans to go public next year joining the ranks of companies like Spotify and Slack that have used a direct listing to go public.</p>
<p>Is this IPO shortcut route appropriate for all companies? What are the pros and cons? And closer to home, which exchanges are open these virtual IPOs?</p>
<p>In this insight, I address the questions above, discuss various discussions with exchanges in the Asia-Pac regions, and also analyse alternative IPO routes such as special purpose acquisition company (SPACs).</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<h2>What's Original?</h2>
<p style="text-align: start;">This insight explores the process, benefits, and track record to date of direct listings in equity markets, through to the current developments in Asia.</p>
</div>

Necessity is the mother of financial innovation. The non-traditional listings of Spotify Technology SA (SPOT US), Slack Technologies Inc (WORK US) and Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR US) exhibit an increasing trend toward direct listings, in place of traditional IPOs incorporating lock-up agreements and dysfunctional pricing and allocation process.
This week Airbnb announced plans to go public next year joining the ranks of companies like Spotify and Slack that have used a direct listing to go public.
Is this IPO shortcut route appropriate for all companies? What are the pros and cons? And closer to home, which exchanges are open these virtual IPOs?
In this insight, I address the questions above, discuss various discussions with exchanges in the Asia-Pac regions, and also analyse alternative IPO routes such as special purpose acquisition company (SPACs).

What's Original?
This insight explores the process, benefits, and track record to date of direct listings in equity markets, through to the current developments in Asia.


Virtual IPOs/Direct Listings: Uninhibited Price Discovery

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Palantir remains one of our favourite names and is one of a tiny handful of tech companies which we believe will be able to truly grow into its valuation. We noted prior to the listing that we didn’t expect immediate fireworks but that we believed the stock would perform well as results came through and this has indeed happened with the stock up over 80% since late October. Fellow IP <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/aaron-gabin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aaron Gabin</a> takes the opposite view <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-short-palantir" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> in a detailed piece that is worth reading to understand the short thesis.</p>

Palantir remains one of our favourite names and is one of a tiny handful of tech companies which we believe will be able to truly grow into its valuation. We noted prior to the listing that we didn’t expect immediate fireworks but that we believed the stock would perform well as results came through and this has indeed happened with the stock up over 80% since late October. Fellow IP Aaron Gabin takes the opposite view here in a detailed piece that is worth reading to understand the short thesis.

Palantir – Profitability and Operating Leverage Are Staggering If You Know How to Look at Them

<p>When we took a deep dive into Palantir, we thought it would be as a long. Up 90% in the past month? Its a short.</p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p>
</div>

When we took a deep dive into Palantir, we thought it would be as a long. Up 90% in the past month? Its a short.

Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.


United States

Palantir Technologies Inc. develops software to analyze information. The Company offers solutions support many kinds of data including structured, unstructured, relational, temporal, and geospatial. Palantir Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)

Crowdstrike 3Q21: Like Shooting Fish in a Barrel

Crowdstrike delivered the most impressive performance of any software company during this reporting season so far. Unlike its high valuation peers,...

Aaron Gabin

Nuix Limited IPO Trading - Aiming for a Modest Debut

Nuix (NXL AU) will raise about US$698m (A$953m) in its Australia IPO and shares are due to trade tomorrow on a conditional and deferred settlement...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Virtual IPOs/Direct Listings: Uninhibited Price Discovery

There’s no cookie-cutter approach that should be employed for every company seeking to go public. But late-stage, venture-backed technology...

David Blennerhassett

Palantir – Profitability and Operating Leverage Are Staggering If You Know How to Look at Them

Palantir has begun to move, up 69.3% since the 4th of November and remains the most attractive name within the SaaS space in our opinion.

Mio Kato

2021 High Conviction: Short Palantir

We take a deep dive into the Palantir business model and come away skeptical that the success of its first quarter as a public company is sustainable.

Aaron Gabin

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