Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With real GDP surging by 6.8%, India was one of the fastest growing economies globally, even exceeding the 6.7% posted by China. Its mega-cities of Mumbai and Delhi have traditionally concentrated the largest luxury good markets in the country, making them the most lucrative venues in India for expansion in the premium and luxury goods market. Nonetheless, in light of high corporate debt levels and growing protectionism, according to Euromonitor International research, the probability of an emerging market slowdown is estimated at 10-15% over a one year horizon, rising to 20-28% over two years. The consequences of an emerging market slowdown on Delhi’s and Mumbai’s high end market will be evaluated using our newly released Income Distribution tool.

With real GDP surging by 6.8%, India was one of the fastest growing economies globally, even exceeding the 6.7% posted by China. Its mega-cities of Mumbai and Delhi have traditionally concentrated the largest luxury good markets in the country, making them the most lucrative venues in India for expansion in the premium and luxury goods market. Nonetheless, in light of high corporate debt levels and growing protectionism, according to Euromonitor International research, the probability of an emerging market slowdown is estimated at 10-15% over a one year horizon, rising to 20-28% over two years. The consequences of an emerging market slowdown on Delhi’s and Mumbai’s high end market will be evaluated using our newly released Income Distribution tool.

How an Emerging Market Slowdown Will Impact Delhi's and Mumbai's Luxury Goods Market

Volume and value sales of consumer appliances in India increased strongly in 2016. The fact that monsoon conditions were better in 2016 [and that most Indians still depend on agriculture to make a living] resulted in an increase in disposable incomes in rural areas and a consequent rise in demand for consumer appliances. Furthermore, the number of players in the consumer appliances industry is increasing. To sustain increasing competition, manufacturers are expected to cut prices during the forecast period.

Volume and value sales of consumer appliances in India increased strongly in 2016. The fact that monsoon conditions were better in 2016 [and that most Indians still depend on agriculture to make a living] resulted in an increase in disposable incomes in rural areas and a consequent rise in demand for consumer appliances. Furthermore, the number of players in the consumer appliances industry is increasing. To sustain increasing competition, manufacturers are expected to cut prices during the forecast period.

India's Consumer Appliances Industry Gets a Boost in 2016

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

The Government presented a fiscally sound budget and avoided any major steps to boost expenditure and mitigate the shock of demonetization. Catching the street by a little surprise, the government stuck to the Fiscal responsibility act and reduced the fiscal deficit target for the year ending March'18 to 3.2% of GDP (vs 3.5% in March'17).  Relief has been provided on the personal income side to low and middle-income earners (people with salaries in Rs 0.25m-0.5m range) where the tax has been…

The Government presented a fiscally sound budget and avoided any major steps to boost expenditure and mitigate the shock of demonetization. Catching the street by a little surprise, the government stuck to the Fiscal responsibility act and reduced the fiscal deficit target for the year ending March'18 to 3.2% of GDP (vs 3.5% in March'17).  Relief has been provided on the personal income side to low and middle-income earners (people with salaries in Rs 0.25m-0.5m range) where the tax has been…

Budget a Non-Event as Govt Plays Safe; Falling Yields to Shift Asset Allocation to Equities

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

On the eve of the budget, shares on the stock market have rallied, raising hopes of the long delayed revival in private sector capital expenditure and corporate earnings. But against the backdrop of an already slowing economy followed by the ill-conceived, disastrously executed demonetisation and marginal room for a major fiscal stimulus might this be a false dawn?

On the eve of the budget, shares on the stock market have rallied, raising hopes of the long delayed revival in private sector capital expenditure and corporate earnings. But against the backdrop of an already slowing economy followed by the ill-conceived, disastrously executed demonetisation and marginal room for a major fiscal stimulus might this be a false dawn?

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>The value vs. momentum factor divergence was 17 percentage points in EM last year - India as a highly-rated, defensive market was always likely to lag given that backdrop.</li>
<li>However, it has delivered a mediocre longer term return relative to the investor hype generated - the Sensex has seen only a 4.9% annualized return over the past five years and 2.7% over the past decade in USD.</li>
<li>That partly reflects the INR falling by a third since late 2011, underperforming even the commodity exposed IDR and MYR…</li>
</ul>


The value vs. momentum factor divergence was 17 percentage points in EM last year - India as a highly-rated, defensive market was always likely to lag given that backdrop.
However, it has delivered a mediocre longer term return relative to the investor hype generated - the Sensex has seen only a 4.9% annualized return over the past five years and 2.7% over the past decade in USD.
That partly reflects the INR falling by a third since late 2011, underperforming even the commodity exposed IDR and MYR…


Still Too Many Stale Bulls on India, as Structural Risks Deepen - 11th Jan 2017

India

Page Industries Limited develops, produces, and distributes branded underwear for men, women, and children in India and Sri Lanka.

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Page Industries (PAG IN)

How an Emerging Market Slowdown Will Impact Delhi's and Mumbai's Luxury Goods Market

With real GDP surging by 6.8%, India was one of the fastest growing economies globally, even exceeding the 6.7% posted by China. Its mega-cities of...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

India's Consumer Appliances Industry Gets a Boost in 2016

Volume and value sales of consumer appliances in India increased strongly in 2016. The fact that monsoon conditions were better in 2016 [and that...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Budget a Non-Event as Govt Plays Safe; Falling Yields to Shift Asset Allocation to Equities

The Government presented a fiscally sound budget and avoided any major steps to boost expenditure and mitigate the shock of demonetization....

Asia Advisors

Pre-Budget: Marginal Room for Stimulus

On the eve of the budget, shares on the stock market have rallied, raising hopes of the long delayed revival in private sector capital expenditure...

Hemindra Hazari

Still Too Many Stale Bulls on India, as Structural Risks Deepen - 11th Jan 2017

The value vs. momentum factor divergence was 17 percentage points in EM last year - India as a highly-rated, defensive market was always likely to...

Sean Maher

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