Independent Research, Food Delivery Space, Newmoon Capital

Newmoon Capital

Independent Research, Food Delivery Space

We look for owner-operators in what we believe are either highly defensible assets or soon to be highly defensible assets, trading at a fraction of their future potential.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>It looks to me that the company is now run-rating to $500M of EBITDA, but it is possible that it is much lower depending on how Q3 turn out.</li><li>It was very possible that things were fine for the first 2 months of Q3 and then got really bad thereafter and so the run-rate EBITDA is actually much lower…but let’s just use $500M as our base case</li><li>Capex in this business is really closer to Opex. Apria is really a leasing/distribution business and so Capex is needed to keep the business running.</li></ul>

It looks to me that the company is now run-rating to $500M of EBITDA, but it is possible that it is much lower depending on how Q3 turn out.It was very possible that things were fine for the first 2 months of Q3 and then got really bad thereafter and so the run-rate EBITDA is actually much lower…but let’s just use $500M as our base caseCapex in this business is really closer to Opex. Apria is really a leasing/distribution business and so Capex is needed to keep the business running.

<ul><li>Why: Profits in “Global Products” should decline over the next two years as it emerges from a period of over-earning in 2020 and 2021, resulting in a collapse in earnings and valuation</li><li>When: Should show evidence in 1Q/2Q2022 - once investors see that Global Products profit is shrinking and start applying a low-growth multiple to normalised earnings.</li><li>Factor Exposure: Value, Covid-beneficiary, negative earnings revision</li></ul>

Why: Profits in “Global Products” should decline over the next two years as it emerges from a period of over-earning in 2020 and 2021, resulting in a collapse in earnings and valuationWhen: Should show evidence in 1Q/2Q2022 - once investors see that Global Products profit is shrinking and start applying a low-growth multiple to normalised earnings.Factor Exposure: Value, Covid-beneficiary, negative earnings revision

United States

Owens & Minor, Inc. distributes medical/surgical supplies throughout the United States.  The Company's customers include hospitals, integrated healthcare systems, and group purchasing organizations.  Owens & Minor also provides services in supply chain management, logistics, and technology.

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Owens & Minor (OMI US)

OMI update

It looks to me that the company is now run-rating to $500M of EBITDA, but it is possible that it is much lower depending on how Q3 turn out.

Newmoon Capital

Owens & Minor (OMI): Short

Why: Profits in “Global Products” should decline over the next two years as it emerges from a period of over-earning in 2020 and 2021, resulting in...

Newmoon Capital

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