Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"</li>
<li>All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).</li>
<li>Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.</li>
</ul>


Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"
All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

<ul>
<li>We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).</li>
<li>Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).</li>
<li>A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.</li>
</ul>


We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).
Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).
A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.


SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>When considering future investment opportunities, the renewable energy transition continues to be an exciting space to investors given its enormous potential total addressable market coupled with climate change legislation that is acting as a tailwind in virtually every G-20 country.</li><li>Almost every month, there continues to be a steady drumbeat of new rules issued locally and across the globe which results in faster timelines to transition to battery storage and other clean energy as well as tighter restrictions to ultimately phase out traditional gas powered transportation and coal power.</li><li>For example, while California has already passed rules requiring all new cars, pickup trucks and SUVs sold to be electric or hydrogen by 2035, California approved rules last week which will require all new medium heavy-duty truck and bus sales sold in the state in 2036 to be zero-emission</li></ul>

When considering future investment opportunities, the renewable energy transition continues to be an exciting space to investors given its enormous potential total addressable market coupled with climate change legislation that is acting as a tailwind in virtually every G-20 country.Almost every month, there continues to be a steady drumbeat of new rules issued locally and across the globe which results in faster timelines to transition to battery storage and other clean energy as well as tighter restrictions to ultimately phase out traditional gas powered transportation and coal power.For example, while California has already passed rules requiring all new cars, pickup trucks and SUVs sold to be electric or hydrogen by 2035, California approved rules last week which will require all new medium heavy-duty truck and bus sales sold in the state in 2036 to be zero-emission

We have said it before and we will say it again; new highs are not a sell signal. This time we are referring to the S&amp;P 500 which is breaking out to all-time highs (above the prior February highs), something we have been able to say about the Nasdaq 100 for over two months. Breadth remains constructive for small- and large-caps and yesterday’s price action appears to be the start of yet another rotation into cyclical value/”reopening” plays. Our outlook remains bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials &amp; Technology.

We have said it before and we will say it again; new highs are not a sell signal. This time we are referring to the S&amp;P 500 which is breaking out to all-time highs (above the prior February highs), something we have been able to say about the Nasdaq 100 for over two months. Breadth remains constructive for small- and large-caps and yesterday’s price action appears to be the start of yet another rotation into cyclical value/”reopening” plays. Our outlook remains bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials &amp; Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy: All-Time Highs Are Not a Sell Signal

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

United States

Owens Corning produces residential and commercial building materials, glass-fiber reinforcements and engineered materials for composite systems. The Company offers its products globally to various industries.

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Owens Corning (OC US)

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

We continue believe that upside is limited with the $SPX testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200). On the off chance...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 5/1

When considering future investment opportunities, the renewable energy transition continues to be an exciting space to investors given its enormous...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

U.S. Equity Strategy: All-Time Highs Are Not a Sell Signal

We have said it before and we will say it again; new highs are not a sell signal. This time we are referring to the S&P 500 which is breaking...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has...

Vermilion Research

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