High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>2022 goes in the books as the worst start to a calendar year (through April's close) in the S&amp;P 500's history; down roughly -13.3% which broke the previous record was 1970's 4-month decline of -11.45%.</li><li>The SPY, Nasdaq, and QQQ indexes remain firmly below their 10WK/30WK moving averages as the corrective action continues.</li><li>After Big Cap tech reported last week, we are officially now in the stage of the market correction where the indexes are seeing downward pressure due to their outsized weightings in the broader market indexes. </li></ul>

2022 goes in the books as the worst start to a calendar year (through April's close) in the S&amp;P 500's history; down roughly -13.3% which broke the previous record was 1970's 4-month decline of -11.45%.The SPY, Nasdaq, and QQQ indexes remain firmly below their 10WK/30WK moving averages as the corrective action continues.After Big Cap tech reported last week, we are officially now in the stage of the market correction where the indexes are seeing downward pressure due to their outsized weightings in the broader market indexes. 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000.</li>
<li>We recently hit marginal new lows; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to bearish, we believe there is potential for an oversold bounce</li>
<li>Still, we will need to see the NYSE have back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day to have confidence that a major bottom is in place.</li>
</ul>


We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000.
We recently hit marginal new lows; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to bearish, we believe there is potential for an oversold bounce
Still, we will need to see the NYSE have back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day to have confidence that a major bottom is in place.


Fed Set to Hike 50 Bps As Indexes Test Support; Energy Stocks to Buy on Pullbacks

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.</li>
<li>If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.</li>
<li>On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal</li>
</ul>


We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.
If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.
On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal


10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

<ul>
<li>Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.</li>
<li>Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.</li>
<li>Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.
Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.
Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.


United States

Ovintiv Inc. operates as an energy producer. The Company focuses on developing its multi-basin portfolio of oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas producing plays. Ovintiv serves clients in the United States and Canada.

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Ovintiv (OVV US)

Weekly Stock Bullfinder- Week of 5/2

2022 goes in the books as the worst start to a calendar year in the S&P 500's history; down roughly -13.3% which broke the previous record was...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Fed Set to Hike 50 Bps As Indexes Test Support; Energy Stocks to Buy on Pullbacks

We recently hit marginal new lows, something we have warned about over the past month; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to...

Vermilion Research

10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

10-year Treas yield $TNX is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance at 2.8-2.82%. If interest rates are to move lower, now would be the time,...

Vermilion Research

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

Stick With Energy and Financials

Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward. Attractive Sectors include Energy and...

Vermilion Research

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