Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the dollar and has the potential to break its 2 year consolidation and move towards parity very fast. In March 2015 it traded at 1.0460 and a break of that level might send the dollar flying higher. My sense though is that the next big move up in the dollar will have more to do with bad news elsewhere, than positive news on the US. Having said that today we…

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the dollar and has the potential to break its 2 year consolidation and move towards parity very fast. In March 2015 it traded at 1.0460 and a break of that level might send the dollar flying higher. My sense though is that the next big move up in the dollar will have more to do with bad news elsewhere, than positive news on the US. Having said that today we…

Money Matters: Is the RMB About to Shoot?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We are numb to the concept of there being just three major banks in Singapore. And while this may to true, there are in fact at least 48 banks with some financial statement data available. A look here, at the uncovered, unknown, hidden banks, may offer insights as to how high NPLs can go. It puts a whole new perspective on the 1-2% figures we see for mainstream banks.DNB Asia tops the charts in Developed Asia for the highest NPL ratio of any bank. For its most recent data at 2015, its NPL ratio…

We are numb to the concept of there being just three major banks in Singapore. And while this may to true, there are in fact at least 48 banks with some financial statement data available. A look here, at the uncovered, unknown, hidden banks, may offer insights as to how high NPLs can go. It puts a whole new perspective on the 1-2% figures we see for mainstream banks.DNB Asia tops the charts in Developed Asia for the highest NPL ratio of any bank. For its most recent data at 2015, its NPL ratio…

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great store of value, even by its own standards this fall is alarming in its speed.  Turkey has USD420bn of external debt of which about USD100bn is short term (2015 Nominal GDP was UD718bn). The country continues to run a a current account deficit despite politically unacceptably low growth and a low oil price (it is an oil importer). Unemployment has been…

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great store of value, even by its own standards this fall is alarming in its speed.  Turkey has USD420bn of external debt of which about USD100bn is short term (2015 Nominal GDP was UD718bn). The country continues to run a a current account deficit despite politically unacceptably low growth and a low oil price (it is an oil importer). Unemployment has been…

Money Matters: Is the Lira Signalling Default Is on the Way?

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian referendum, as expected, produced a bad outcome for believers in the single European currency but as it turns out it was so widely expected that it triggered short covering in the Euro. I would highlight a few data points in the next few days that may add to dollar strength, cement the break-out in the DXY and lead to an acceleration in the up-trend in…

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian referendum, as expected, produced a bad outcome for believers in the single European currency but as it turns out it was so widely expected that it triggered short covering in the Euro. I would highlight a few data points in the next few days that may add to dollar strength, cement the break-out in the DXY and lead to an acceleration in the up-trend in…

Money Matters: Short-Term Dollar Catalysts.

Equity Bottom-Up

Over the past month many banks in Asia have seen an increase in market capitalization. Presumably, this is a reflection of expected higher interest rates and better income as a result. However, there is a vast disparity in these expectations, which appear most overdone with DBS.  As earnings falter and NPLs rise further, DBS’ US$4.3bn gain in market capitalization in the past 30 days, will seem out of place.Market capitalization change past month (%)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/017/153/original/image%201.png?1480589919" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="17153"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Bloomberg, Tabbush Report</div>In percentage…

Over the past month many banks in Asia have seen an increase in market capitalization. Presumably, this is a reflection of expected higher interest rates and better income as a result. However, there is a vast disparity in these expectations, which appear most overdone with DBS.  As earnings falter and NPLs rise further, DBS’ US$4.3bn gain in market capitalization in the past 30 days, will seem out of place.Market capitalization change past month (%)Source: Bloomberg, Tabbush ReportIn percentage…

Singapore

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

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Money Matters: Is the RMB About to Shoot?

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the...

Stewart Paterson

A Bank with 22% NPLs in Singapore?

We are numb to the concept of there being just three major banks in Singapore. And while this may to true, there are in fact at least 48 banks with...

Daniel Tabbush

Money Matters: Is the Lira Signalling Default Is on the Way?

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Short-Term Dollar Catalysts.

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian...

Stewart Paterson

Misguided Expectations for DBS

Over the past month many banks in Asia have seen an increase in market capitalization. Presumably, this is a reflection of expected higher interest...

Daniel Tabbush

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