Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great store of value, even by its own standards this fall is alarming in its speed.  Turkey has USD420bn of external debt of which about USD100bn is short term (2015 Nominal GDP was UD718bn). The country continues to run a a current account deficit despite politically unacceptably low growth and a low oil price (it is an oil importer). Unemployment has been…

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great store of value, even by its own standards this fall is alarming in its speed.  Turkey has USD420bn of external debt of which about USD100bn is short term (2015 Nominal GDP was UD718bn). The country continues to run a a current account deficit despite politically unacceptably low growth and a low oil price (it is an oil importer). Unemployment has been…

Money Matters: Is the Lira Signalling Default Is on the Way?

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian referendum, as expected, produced a bad outcome for believers in the single European currency but as it turns out it was so widely expected that it triggered short covering in the Euro. I would highlight a few data points in the next few days that may add to dollar strength, cement the break-out in the DXY and lead to an acceleration in the up-trend in…

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian referendum, as expected, produced a bad outcome for believers in the single European currency but as it turns out it was so widely expected that it triggered short covering in the Euro. I would highlight a few data points in the next few days that may add to dollar strength, cement the break-out in the DXY and lead to an acceleration in the up-trend in…

Money Matters: Short-Term Dollar Catalysts.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Over the past month many banks in Asia have seen an increase in market capitalization. Presumably, this is a reflection of expected higher interest rates and better income as a result. However, there is a vast disparity in these expectations, which appear most overdone with DBS.  As earnings falter and NPLs rise further, DBS’ US$4.3bn gain in market capitalization in the past 30 days, will seem out of place.Market capitalization change past month (%)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/017/153/original/image%201.png?1480589919" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="17153"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Bloomberg, Tabbush Report</div>In percentage…

Over the past month many banks in Asia have seen an increase in market capitalization. Presumably, this is a reflection of expected higher interest rates and better income as a result. However, there is a vast disparity in these expectations, which appear most overdone with DBS.  As earnings falter and NPLs rise further, DBS’ US$4.3bn gain in market capitalization in the past 30 days, will seem out of place.Market capitalization change past month (%)Source: Bloomberg, Tabbush ReportIn percentage…

Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between the RMB and US bond yields. RMB strength has been associated with rising US bond yields while RMB weakness has been associated with falling bond yields. The rationale should be apparent but as RMB weakness is associated with the potential for Chinese exporters to lower their USD prices (and incidentally reduce Asian corporate earnings outside of China)…

 Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between the RMB and US bond yields. RMB strength has been associated with rising US bond yields while RMB weakness has been associated with falling bond yields. The rationale should be apparent but as RMB weakness is associated with the potential for Chinese exporters to lower their USD prices (and incidentally reduce Asian corporate earnings outside of China)…

Money Matters: US Bond Yields & USD/RMB - A Paradigm Shift?

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

§  As many as 9 STI Stocks have traded more than double their three month daily average volume in trading sessions for the early week of 21 November.§  Biggest volume surges were generated by Genting Singapore PLC which traded almost 5x its average volume on Monday, and StarHub which traded 4x its average volume on Monday – then 3x its average volume on Tuesday.§  The 9 Stocks, which represent five Sectors have together averaged a 1.5% gain in the November MTD, bringing their 2016 YTD average…

§  As many as 9 STI Stocks have traded more than double their three month daily average volume in trading sessions for the early week of 21 November.§  Biggest volume surges were generated by Genting Singapore PLC which traded almost 5x its average volume on Monday, and StarHub which traded 4x its average volume on Monday – then 3x its average volume on Tuesday.§  The 9 Stocks, which represent five Sectors have together averaged a 1.5% gain in the November MTD, bringing their 2016 YTD average…

Nine STI Stocks See Volume Surge in Early Week

Singapore

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited offers a comprehensive range of financial services.  The Company's services include deposit-taking, corporate, enterprise and personal lending, international trade financing, investment banking, private banking, treasury, stockbroking, insurance, credit cards, cash management, asset management and other financial and related services.

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OCBC (OCBC SP)

Money Matters: Is the Lira Signalling Default Is on the Way?

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Short-Term Dollar Catalysts.

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian...

Stewart Paterson

Misguided Expectations for DBS

Over the past month many banks in Asia have seen an increase in market capitalization. Presumably, this is a reflection of expected higher interest...

Daniel Tabbush

Money Matters: US Bond Yields & USD/RMB - A Paradigm Shift?

Over the past five years or so, since the RMB moved into over-valuation territory, there has been a consistent and inverse relationship between...

Stewart Paterson

Nine STI Stocks See Volume Surge in Early Week

§ As many as 9 STI Stocks have traded more than double their three month daily average volume in trading sessions for the early week of 21...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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