Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temasek-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28816:1" rel="noopener">Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP)</a>, Singapore’s state investment firm, is reportedly eyeing a 10-15% stake in India’s top snack maker Haldirams (Unlisted), valued at $11 billion.</li>
<li>India's packaged and processed food sector is booming, driven by modern retail growth, improved food standards, rising convenience demand, and greater affordability.</li>
<li>Big acquisitions, upcoming IPOs, and strong growth prospects keep this sector in the spotlight, with listed companies offering investors opportunity to play the upswing.</li>
</ul>



Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP), Singapore’s state investment firm, is reportedly eyeing a 10-15% stake in India’s top snack maker Haldirams (Unlisted), valued at $11 billion.
India's packaged and processed food sector is booming, driven by modern retail growth, improved food standards, rising convenience demand, and greater affordability.
Big acquisitions, upcoming IPOs, and strong growth prospects keep this sector in the spotlight, with listed companies offering investors opportunity to play the upswing.


Temasek's USD1Bn+ Bite into India's Booming Snack Food Sector.Top Listed Stocks to Watch

Equity Bottom-Up

Pop Mart International Group L / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Consumer Tales &amp; Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.</li>
<li>Despite weak consumer spending in China, there are a few bright spots—an example is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK)'s</a> strong sales growth partly driven by the "red lipstick effect."</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">Miniso (MNSO US)</a>’s stock plunged early last week but quickly recovered, reinforcing our view that its deal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yonghui-superstores-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15910:1" rel="noopener">Yonghui Superstores Co., (601933 CH)</a> has some promise.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Consumer Tales &amp; Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
Despite weak consumer spending in China, there are a few bright spots—an example is Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK)'s strong sales growth partly driven by the "red lipstick effect."

Miniso (MNSO US)’s stock plunged early last week but quickly recovered, reinforcing our view that its deal with Yonghui Superstores Co., (601933 CH) has some promise.


Weekly Consumer Tales: Pop Mart's Unique Appeal-Miniso's Yonghui Buy-China Stimulus-MTR's Spicy IPO

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India's packaged and processed food segment is in limelight with leading consumer companies launching/expanding their branded staples portfolio, and recent acquisitions in the branded spice segment.</li>
<li>Reliance retail launched packaged staples and food brand <em><strong>Independence; </strong></em>a potential competition to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-wilmar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34763:1" rel="noopener">Adani Wilmar</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consumer-products" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:258:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consumer</a> that have been expanding in this space.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur (DABUR IN)</a> had announced acquisition of a 51% stake in veteran spice brand Badshah Masala in October this year, now followed by Wipro Consumer's takeover of spice player Nirapara.</li>
</ul>


India's packaged and processed food segment is in limelight with leading consumer companies launching/expanding their branded staples portfolio, and recent acquisitions in the branded spice segment.
Reliance retail launched packaged staples and food brand Independence; a potential competition to Adani Wilmar, ITC Ltd, and Tata Consumer that have been expanding in this space.

Dabur (DABUR IN) had announced acquisition of a 51% stake in veteran spice brand Badshah Masala in October this year, now followed by Wipro Consumer's takeover of spice player Nirapara.


Spicy Hot: India Branded Staples in Limelight - Acquisitions & Fresh Forays

Norway

Orkla ASA manufactures branded consumer goods to the Nordic grocery market, and operates in the branded consumer goods, materials, renewable energy and financial investment sectors.

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Orkla ASA (ORK NO)

Temasek's USD1Bn+ Bite into India's Booming Snack Food Sector.Top Listed Stocks to Watch

India's packaged food sector could continue to be in spotlight with big acquisitions, upcoming IPOs and expected strong growth. Top listed stocks...

Devi Subhakesan

Weekly Consumer Tales: Pop Mart's Unique Appeal-Miniso's Yonghui Buy-China Stimulus-MTR's Spicy IPO

Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer...

Devi Subhakesan

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Spicy Hot: India Branded Staples in Limelight - Acquisitions & Fresh Forays

Leading consumer companies launching/expanding branded staples portfolios, and recent acquisitions in branded spice segment turn the spotlight on...

Devi Subhakesan

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