Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The weight of the evidence continues to support our mixed, but overall constructive outlook. Below we outline the basis for our outlook, and we also highlight opportunities within Real Estate and Health Care.</p>

The weight of the evidence continues to support our mixed, but overall constructive outlook. Below we outline the basis for our outlook, and we also highlight opportunities within Real Estate and Health Care.

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities In Real Estate and Health Care

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinxin-fertility-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28003:1" rel="noopener">Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951 HK)</a>while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>. Shorts increased on Financials, while decreasing on Communication Services, Health Care, Financials and Energy, while shorts decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Information Technology.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-real-estate-master-fu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22930:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Real Estate Master Fund, (3462 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-jreit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:314:1" rel="noopener">Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmg-mori-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11125:1" rel="noopener">Dmg Mori Co Ltd (6141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharma-foods-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10530:1" rel="noopener">Pharma Foods International (2929 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased in Real Estate and decreased in Industrials.</p></div><div>
<p>In Korea, there was large short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pearl-abyss-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24391:1" rel="noopener">Pearl Abyss (263750 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotte-chemical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8757:1" rel="noopener">Lotte Chemical (011170 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>. </p>
<p>Taiwan was closed for the week due to the Lunar New Year.</p>
</div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) and Jinxin Fertility Co Ltd (1951 HK)while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and BYD (1211 HK). Shorts increased on Financials, while decreasing on Communication Services, Health Care, Financials and Energy, while shorts decreased on Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate and Information Technology.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP), Nomura Real Estate Master Fund, (3462 JP), freee (4478 JP) and Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP) while shorts decreased on Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP), Dmg Mori Co Ltd (6141 JP) and Pharma Foods International (2929 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased in Real Estate and decreased in Industrials.
In Korea, there was large short covering in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Pearl Abyss (263750 KS), Lotte Chemical (011170 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS). 
Taiwan was closed for the week due to the Lunar New Year.


Asia Short Interest: WuXi Bio, PSBC, Jinxin Fertility, BYD, Ryohin, Freee, Itochu, Pearl Abyss

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<p>In 2020, we have so far witnessed 15 follow-on JREIT offerings cumulatively raising JPY463bn (~US$4.5bn). This has been something of a weak year, understandable because of the covid-19 crisis which hit equity market and JREIT prices in March, and keeping them soft for months afterwards.</p>
<p>Historically, January and February are the busiest months, for a variety of reasons.</p>
<p>From 2015-2020, on average, there have been ~7 offerings from the top 40 JREITs announced within the first two months of the calendar year accounting for roughly a third of the total number of offerings in each year during that period. </p>
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Source: Quiddity, Capital IQ (Data)</div>
In this insight, we take a look at the prospective candidates who are most likely to launch follow-on equity offerings near-term, and we look at the performance characteristics of J-REIT follow-on offerings and the likelihood of profit from participating in the event.</section>

In 2020, we have so far witnessed 15 follow-on JREIT offerings cumulatively raising JPY463bn (~US$4.5bn). This has been something of a weak year, understandable because of the covid-19 crisis which hit equity market and JREIT prices in March, and keeping them soft for months afterwards.
Historically, January and February are the busiest months, for a variety of reasons.
From 2015-2020, on average, there have been ~7 offerings from the top 40 JREITs announced within the first two months of the calendar year accounting for roughly a third of the total number of offerings in each year during that period. 









Source: Quiddity, Capital IQ (Data)
In this insight, we take a look at the prospective candidates who are most likely to launch follow-on equity offerings near-term, and we look at the performance characteristics of J-REIT follow-on offerings and the likelihood of profit from participating in the event.

J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>* Poor Results To Continue:</em></strong> Orix (8591.JP/IX.US) reported consolidated FY (March) 1Q21 results of JPY 50.0 bn, declining JPY 19.2 bn (28%) YOY and below consensus forecasts. The bulk of the decline can be attributed to a JPY 12.2 bn reduction in capital gains; and</p><p><strong><em>* Opacity Doesn’t Help:</em></strong> ORIX is a riddle. Its business structure makes it relatively opaque and quite difficult to gauge profitability. ORIX shares have fallen to their March lows, and earnings/dividends expectations now lack confidence.</p>

* Poor Results To Continue: Orix (8591.JP/IX.US) reported consolidated FY (March) 1Q21 results of JPY 50.0 bn, declining JPY 19.2 bn (28%) YOY and below consensus forecasts. The bulk of the decline can be attributed to a JPY 12.2 bn reduction in capital gains; and* Opacity Doesn’t Help: ORIX is a riddle. Its business structure makes it relatively opaque and quite difficult to gauge profitability. ORIX shares have fallen to their March lows, and earnings/dividends expectations now lack confidence.

<div><p>The short notional in the market for the week ended 6 December is US$25.84bn (up by US$570m) with the largest short positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-mitsui-financial-gr" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a> while the stocks with the highest days to cover are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vital-ksk-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7398:1">Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1">Dcm Holdings (3050 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shoei-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15038:1">Shoei Co Ltd (7839 JP)</a>. </p></div><div><p>The largest increases in short notional over the week were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1">Monotaro Co Ltd (3064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1">Disco Corp (6146 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1">Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP)</a> while shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airport-terminal-co" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18034:1">Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-payment-gateway-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1">GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandai-namco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13435:1">Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP)</a>.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1"></a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/casio-computer-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18338:1"></a></p></div><div><p>Sectorally, short positions were increased in Consumer Discretionary (US$68m), Communication Services (US$66m) and Industrials (US$65m) while shorts were covered in Real Estate (US$27m) and Financials (US$10m).</p></div>

The short notional in the market for the week ended 6 December is US$25.84bn (up by US$570m) with the largest short positions in Itochu Corp (8001 JP), Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP). Most shorted stocks as a percentage of free float are Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Tokai Carbon (5301 JP) and Anritsu Corp (6754 JP) while the stocks with the highest days to cover are Katakura Industries (3001 JP), Vital Ksk Holdings (3151 JP), Dcm Holdings (3050 JP) and Shoei Co Ltd (7839 JP). The largest increases in short notional over the week were Monotaro Co Ltd (3064 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Disco Corp (6146 JP) and Cyberagent Inc (4751 JP) while shorts were covered in Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP), Tokai Carbon (5301 JP), GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP) and Bandai Namco Holdings (7832 JP).   Sectorally, short positions were increased in Consumer Discretionary (US$68m), Communication Services (US$66m) and Industrials (US$65m) while shorts were covered in Real Estate (US$27m) and Financials (US$10m).

Japan - Shorts Increase on Pigeon, Fast Retailing; Decrease on Bandai Namco, Orix JREIT

Japan

ORIX JREIT Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) which invests in securitized real estate products.  The Company directly invests in real estate properties such as offices, rental housings, and hotels.

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Orix JREIT Inc (8954 JP)

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities In Real Estate and Health Care

The weight of the evidence continues to support our mixed, but overall constructive outlook. We outline the basis for our outlook and also...

Vermilion Research

Asia Short Interest: WuXi Bio, PSBC, Jinxin Fertility, BYD, Ryohin, Freee, Itochu, Pearl Abyss

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

J-REIT Offering Primer: Get Ready for Offering Season 2021

JREIT Follow-On Offerings - A Primer: January and February are the busiest times of the year for a variety of reasons and there are multiple...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ORIX Corp.– Enigma Wrapped In A Riddle

* Poor Results To Continue: Orix (8591.JP/IX.US) reported consolidated FY (March) 1Q21 results of JPY 50.0 bn, declining JPY 19.2 bn (28%) YOY and...

Thomas J. Monaco

Japan - Shorts Increase on Pigeon, Fast Retailing; Decrease on Bandai Namco, Orix JREIT

The short notional in the market for the week ended 6 December is US$25.84bn (up by US$570m) with the largest short positions in Itochu Corp (8001...

Brian Freitas

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