Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We are positive on Orion Corp. Regardless of the overall market movement next year (up or down), we believe Orion Corp could outperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months.</li>
<li>The company has millions of loyal customers in major overseas countries including China, Russia, and Vietnam. Despite difficult operating conditions, Orion continues to generate stable growth in sales and profits.</li>
<li>Orion Corp's valuations are attractive. Orion Corp is currently trading at 2024E EV/EBITDA of 4.4x (42% lower than average valuation multiple from 2019 to 2023).</li>
</ul>


We are positive on Orion Corp. Regardless of the overall market movement next year (up or down), we believe Orion Corp could outperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months.
The company has millions of loyal customers in major overseas countries including China, Russia, and Vietnam. Despite difficult operating conditions, Orion continues to generate stable growth in sales and profits.
Orion Corp's valuations are attractive. Orion Corp is currently trading at 2024E EV/EBITDA of 4.4x (42% lower than average valuation multiple from 2019 to 2023).


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 15 January, Orion Corp announced that its subsidiary PAN Orion Corp will purchase a 25.7% stake in Legochem Biosciences for 549 billion won. </li>
<li>LegoChem Bio specializes in antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology. Legochem Bio signed a total of 13 technology transfer contracts amounting to 8.7 trillion won in the past 9 years. </li>
<li>Most investors in Orion Corp would rather have the company focus on its core confectionery/snack business, rather than expand into high risk/high reward biotech business.</li>
</ul>


On 15 January, Orion Corp announced that its subsidiary PAN Orion Corp will purchase a 25.7% stake in Legochem Biosciences for 549 billion won. 
LegoChem Bio specializes in antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology. Legochem Bio signed a total of 13 technology transfer contracts amounting to 8.7 trillion won in the past 9 years. 
Most investors in Orion Corp would rather have the company focus on its core confectionery/snack business, rather than expand into high risk/high reward biotech business.


Orion Corp: Concerns About Diversification into LegoChem Bioscience

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
In the past year, cocoa prices have spiked to elevated levels.
</li>
<li>
The culprit has been heavy rainfall in West Africa, leading to poor cocoa crops.
</li>
<li>
There’s nothing suggesting that the tightness in the cocoa market will end anytime soon. 
</li>
</ul>



In the past year, cocoa prices have spiked to elevated levels.


The culprit has been heavy rainfall in West Africa, leading to poor cocoa crops.


There’s nothing suggesting that the tightness in the cocoa market will end anytime soon. 



Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2024.</li>
<li>Volatility has been high in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks resulting in some interesting widening of some gaps among numerous holdcos and opcos in Korea. </li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 19 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and the other 19 opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2024.
Volatility has been high in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks resulting in some interesting widening of some gaps among numerous holdcos and opcos in Korea. 
Of the 38 pair trades, 19 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and the other 19 opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period. 


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2024

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.</li>
<li>We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that are expected to have passive flows from global and local index trackers over the next few months and that will add to the impact.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 June and will end on 31 August.
We see 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 1 new addition to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and 3 new additions to MidCap.
There are a few stocks that are expected to have passive flows from global and local index trackers over the next few months and that will add to the impact.


KOSPI Size Indices: Outperformance Slows on Momentum Stalls

South Korea

Orion Corp. manufactures and distributes snacks and beverages. The Company also engages in movie production and investments.

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Orion Corp (271560 KS)

2024 High Conviction: Orion Corp

We are positive on Orion Corp. Regardless of the overall market movement next year (up or down), we believe Orion Corp could outperform KOSPI in...

Douglas Kim

Orion Corp: Concerns About Diversification into LegoChem Bioscience

Orion Corp's investment in LegoChem Bio raises concerns about diversification into risky biotech business. Investors would rather have Orion Corp...

Douglas Kim

The cocoa question

In the past year, cocoa prices have spiked to elevated levels. The culprit has been heavy rainfall in West Africa, leading to poor cocoa crops.

Asian Century Stocks

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2024

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Indices: Outperformance Slows on Momentum Stalls

There could be 41 stocks migrating between size segments in September. The upward migrations have outperformed the downward migrations but the...

Brian Freitas

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