HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We stay bearish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> despite record net profit in FY22. The collapse in spot freight rate will take a toll on FY23 earnings.</li>
<li>Management is also conservative on outlook, citing both demand and supply issues. It expects gross margin to return to pre-pandemic levels (17-20%) in the future, vs. 41.8% in 2H22.</li>
<li>Market consensus is just too optimistic, projecting just 37% YoY decline in earnings for FY23. We believe actual earnings may be at least 18-27% lower than current street forecasts. </li>
</ul>


We stay bearish on SITC International (1308 HK) despite record net profit in FY22. The collapse in spot freight rate will take a toll on FY23 earnings.
Management is also conservative on outlook, citing both demand and supply issues. It expects gross margin to return to pre-pandemic levels (17-20%) in the future, vs. 41.8% in 2H22.
Market consensus is just too optimistic, projecting just 37% YoY decline in earnings for FY23. We believe actual earnings may be at least 18-27% lower than current street forecasts. 


SITC International (1308 HK): Still Not Easy to Find the Bright Spot

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. </li>
<li>We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.</li>
<li>Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC International (1308 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> will fare better than others.</li>
</ul>


Weaker OECD demand, diversification of supply chain out of China, lesser room for Rmb depreciation and high base effects all suggest challenging export environment for China in 2023. 
We expect 5-10% drop in China's export in next year, against consensus of 0.2% growth. Except ASEAN, exports to all major trading partners are already deep in negative in Nov.
Long-Haul container shipping is the most disastrous, while port and logistics sectors are less vulnerable. We think SITC International (1308 HK) and Sinotrans (598 HK) will fare better than others.


China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 11th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in AIA, Li Ning, SHK PPT, CSPC Pharma, Fosun Pharma, Kingsoft.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 11th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in AIA, Li Ning, SHK PPT, CSPC Pharma, Fosun Pharma, Kingsoft.


HK Short Interest Weekly: AIA, Li Ning, SHK PPT, CSPC Pharma, Fosun Pharma, Kingsoft

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 30th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in CSPC Pharma, Hygeia, GCL Technology, SHK Properties, Techtronic.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 30th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in CSPC Pharma, Hygeia, GCL Technology, SHK Properties, Techtronic.


HK Short Interest Weekly: CSPC Pharma, Hygeia, GCL Technology, SHK Properties, Techtronic

Research from Quam Securities, Quam Securities

Quam Securities Research

Research from Quam Securities

Quam Securities

Since its inception in 1986, Quam Securities Limited (Quam Securities) has grown to become one of the few mid-tier securities brokerages in Hong Kong with global execution capabilities for both private and institutional clients. It boasts a well-established network in Greater China including Taiwan and in major world markets through the Global Alliance Partners (GAP). Quam Securities is well-positioned not only to harness and drive business within the China Tonghai International Financial Limited but also between China and the world markets.

<ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li>Shipping rates continued their downtrend last week with the WCI Composite Container Index fell 5.4% w/w and the rate for one of the mostly watched key routes, SH-to-LA falling 9.2%</li><li>Dry bulk rates fell even more with the Baltic Dry Bulk Index falling 15.4% w/w and the latest level of 1082 basically normalized to pre-pandemic levels</li><li>Crude oil tanker rate was flat w/w and continued to outperform the other two sectors</li></ul>

Shipping rates continued their downtrend last week with the WCI Composite Container Index fell 5.4% w/w and the rate for one of the mostly watched key routes, SH-to-LA falling 9.2%Dry bulk rates fell even more with the Baltic Dry Bulk Index falling 15.4% w/w and the latest level of 1082 basically normalized to pre-pandemic levelsCrude oil tanker rate was flat w/w and continued to outperform the other two sectors

Tactical Trade Idea – Shipping Sector : Shipping Rates Remained Under Pressure

Hong Kong

Orient Overseas International Ltd, through its subsidiaries, owns and leases ships, operates terminals, and provides freight forwarding and container transportation services.  The Company also develops and invests in properties, leases equipment, and invests in securities.

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Orient Overseas International (316 HK)

SITC International (1308 HK): Still Not Easy to Find the Bright Spot

SITC is still facing tough operating environment with freight rate pressure. Market consensus looks too optimistic which means downgrade risks....

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

We are cautious on China's export outlook in 2023, and operating environment of port, container shipping and logistics sectors will be challenging....

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: AIA, Li Ning, SHK PPT, CSPC Pharma, Fosun Pharma, Kingsoft

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Nov 11th and highlight short interest changes in AIA, Li Ning, SHK PPT,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: CSPC Pharma, Hygeia, GCL Technology, SHK Properties, Techtronic

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position and highlight short interest changes in CSPC Pharma, Hygeia, GCL Technology, SHK...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tactical Trade Idea – Shipping Sector : Shipping Rates Remained Under Pressure

Dry bulk rates fell even more with the Baltic Dry Bulk Index falling 15.4% w/w and the latest level of 1082 basically normalized to pre-pandemic...

Quam Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)