FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments.  These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last month and its significant correction in recent days.  Throughout this move we have been skeptical that the AUD can sustain its rally with significant local political and economic uncertainty.  These risks remain and continue to make it difficult to hold long AUD positions.  On the other hand, political and economic uncertainty in many alternative currencies are equally troubling. In Australia, economic momentum picked up in 2015, but has been more mixed in 2016.  The housing market is starting to ebb from strong levels, political risks remain elevated, bank equity performance has been weak, potentially a drag on confidence.  However, Global drivers remain in control, and while uncertainty is elevated in Australia, it is not clear that it will be sufficient to throw the Australian economy off course.  The RBA Statement continued to express a steady policy outlook albeit with an easing bias.

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments.  These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last month and its significant correction in recent days.  Throughout this move we have been skeptical that the AUD can sustain its rally with significant local political and economic uncertainty.  These risks remain and continue to make it difficult to hold long AUD positions.  On the other hand, political and economic uncertainty in many alternative currencies are equally troubling. In Australia, economic momentum picked up in 2015, but has been more mixed in 2016.  The housing market is starting to ebb from strong levels, political risks remain elevated, bank equity performance has been weak, potentially a drag on confidence.  However, Global drivers remain in control, and while uncertainty is elevated in Australia, it is not clear that it will be sufficient to throw the Australian economy off course.  The RBA Statement continued to express a steady policy outlook albeit with an easing bias.

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Unlike gold and oil, Lithium is not an exchange traded commodity but is nevertheless considered one. From mid 2014, the commodities market has seen the worst slump in prices in 20 years and some commodities have been trading at multi-year lows. Lithium has defied the price decline and is currently trading at record highs which has sparked investor interest. This article covers the basics of the lithium industry, its demand and supply mechanics as well as its outlook five years hence.

Unlike gold and oil, Lithium is not an exchange traded commodity but is nevertheless considered one. From mid 2014, the commodities market has seen the worst slump in prices in 20 years and some commodities have been trading at multi-year lows. Lithium has defied the price decline and is currently trading at record highs which has sparked investor interest. This article covers the basics of the lithium industry, its demand and supply mechanics as well as its outlook five years hence.

Lithium - An Outlier Among Sinking Commodities

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<div>In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.</div><ul>
<li>Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).</li>
<li>Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.</li>
<li>The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…</li>
</ul>

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.
Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).
Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.
The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…


Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li class="p1">Incitec Pivot is a leading global explosives company and&nbsp;Australian fertiliser manufacturer and distributor.</li><li class="p1">Fertiliser&nbsp;is a cyclical business and, despite a strong domestic market&nbsp;position, prices are subject to global supply and demand,&nbsp;so earnings are volatile.</li><li class="p1">Explosives provide greater earnings&nbsp;stability, with demand from the global mining sector.</li><li class="p1">The Australian explosives&nbsp;(ammonium nitrate) industry and the global explosive&nbsp;markets face considerable headwinds.</li><li class="p1">Oversupply, driven&nbsp;by capacity additions, at a time when the outlook for growth&nbsp;in demand for Australian coal and iron ore is muted, is&nbsp;central to the more subdued outlook.</li><li class="p1">We downgrade our fair value estimate to A$ 2.50 per share&nbsp;from A$ 3.30 per share after reassessing Incitec's&nbsp;medium-term growth potential.</li></ul>Analysts: Mark Taylor &amp; Mathew Hodge

Incitec Pivot is a leading global explosives company and&nbsp;Australian fertiliser manufacturer and distributor.Fertiliser&nbsp;is a cyclical business and, despite a strong domestic market&nbsp;position, prices are subject to global supply and demand,&nbsp;so earnings are volatile.Explosives provide greater earnings&nbsp;stability, with demand from the global mining sector.The Australian explosives&nbsp;(ammonium nitrate) industry and the global explosive&nbsp;markets face considerable headwinds.Oversupply, driven&nbsp;by capacity additions, at a time when the outlook for growth&nbsp;in demand for Australian coal and iron ore is muted, is&nbsp;central to the more subdued outlook.We downgrade our fair value estimate to A$ 2.50 per share&nbsp;from A$ 3.30 per share after reassessing Incitec's&nbsp;medium-term growth potential.Analysts: Mark Taylor &amp; Mathew Hodge

Tough Medium-Term Outlook. Our Fair Value Estimate is A$2.50

Potash Corp Of Saskatchewan / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li class="p1">We have lowered our long-term potash price outlook roughly&nbsp;10% to $285 (real terms) per metric ton from $315.</li><li class="p1">We now&nbsp;expect negotiations with China in 2016 will end in a cut to&nbsp;the contract price.</li><li class="p1">We expect potash supply growth to&nbsp;slightly exceed demand up to 2020.</li><li class="p1">As a result, we expect&nbsp;prices to slide in real terms until that time.</li><li class="p1">At $22 per share, we think PotashCorp's shares are&nbsp;undervalued.</li><li class="p1">It seems the market is pricing in flat volumes&nbsp;and weaker prices than we're expecting</li></ul>

We have lowered our long-term potash price outlook roughly&nbsp;10% to $285 (real terms) per metric ton from $315.We now&nbsp;expect negotiations with China in 2016 will end in a cut to&nbsp;the contract price.We expect potash supply growth to&nbsp;slightly exceed demand up to 2020.As a result, we expect&nbsp;prices to slide in real terms until that time.At $22 per share, we think PotashCorp's shares are&nbsp;undervalued.It seems the market is pricing in flat volumes&nbsp;and weaker prices than we're expecting

We've Cut Our Potash Producer Fair Value Estimate on Price Pressure, But Shares Look Compelling

Australia

Incitec Pivot Limited is a fertilizer manufacturer and supplier, and also a supplier for explosives products and services. The Company has operations throughout the United States, Canada, Mexico and Australia.

Nufarm Limited manufactures and supplies a range of agricultural chemicals used by farmers to protect crops from damage caused by weeds, pests and disease. The Company has worldwide operations.

Alpha HPA Limited operates as a chemical company. The Company produces high purity aluminium oxides, hydroxides, nitrates, and sulphates. These products are found in a wide range of high technology industries. Alpha HPA serves customers worldwide. Alpha HPA provides purification techniques to achieve purity levels with a reduced carbon profile.

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

Boral Limited is a manufacturer and supplier of building and construction materials in Australia and internationally.  Boral supplies building products to the residential and commercial building markets, operates clay brick business in the U.S. (for clay roof tiles and fly ash) along with the production of plasterboard, timber products and concrete products.

Highfield Resources Ltd. is potash development company. The Company owns potash projects located in Spain's Ebro Basin. Highfield Resources also owns the right to earn an interest in tenements in the Canning Basin in Western Australia.

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

Yancoal Australia Limited provides coal mining services. The Company mines, processes, and sells pure-coal, metallurgical coal, and more. Yancoal Australia also exports its products.

MMG Limited is a mid-tier global resources company which explores, develops and mines base metal projects around the world.  The Company currently owns and operates the Century, Golden Grove and Rosebery mines in Australia, the Kinsevere mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the LXML Sepon mine in Laos.

MITSUBISHI GAS CHEMICAL COMPANY, INC. produces chemical products such as xylene and methanol.  The Company also manufactures engineering plastics and specialty chemicals.

Resonac Holdings Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products. The Company produces synthetic resins, petrochemical products, inorganics, and other related products. Resonac Holdings also produces ceramics, metals, carbon, electronic materials, and other products.

Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. manufactures and markets a variety of chemical products. The Company's products include ethylene, propylene and other petrochemicals, basic chemicals, synthetic resins, and fine chemicals.  The Company operates worldwide.

Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., Ltd. manufactures a variety of dyes including high intensity and rapid-dying Lonsperse Dye. The Company sells its products domestically and exports worldwide.

Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., (600352 CH)

Huntsman Corporation manufactures differentiated and commodity chemical products.  The Company markets a broad range of chemical products and formulations to a diversified group of consumer and industrial customers. Huntsman's products are used in a range of applications, including those in adhesives, aerospace, automotive, construction products, and consumer products.

Zhejiang Huafeng Spandex Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets spandex products.

SKC Co., Ltd. manufactures a variety of films, including polyester films, silicon coated films, and inkjet films.  The Company also produces chemical products, such as propylene oxide, propylene glycol, and styrene monomer. In addition, SKC provides materials for photovoltaic.

Nissan Chemical Industries, Ltd. produces a variety of chemical products, ranging from basic chemicals to functional chemical products.  The Company also manufactures agrochemicals and pharmaceutical products.

Balchem Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets specialty performance ingredients for the food, feed, and medical sterilization industries. The Company micro-encapsulates performance ingredients, and also repackages and markets specialty gases. Balchem sells its products through its own sales force, independent distributors, and sales agents.

TongKun Group Co., Ltd. develops, produces and sells polyester and Terylene filament.  The Company also invests in real estate, finance, business trade and education businesses.

Orica Limited is a diversified manufacturing company.  The Company produces industrial and specialty chemicals, polyethylene, surface coatings for vehicles, food and beverage flavoring and fragrances, packaging and appliances. The Company also supplies explosive and blasting services to the mining, quarrying and construction industries.

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Orica Ltd (ORI AU)

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments. These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last...

Greg Gibbs

Lithium - An Outlier Among Sinking Commodities

Unlike gold and oil, Lithium is not an exchange traded commodity but is nevertheless considered one. From mid 2014, the commodities market has seen...

Ishita Jain

RBA Downbeat on Commodity Price Outlook

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further,...

Sam Ferraro

Tough Medium-Term Outlook. Our Fair Value Estimate is A$2.50

Incitec Pivot is a leading global explosives company and Australian fertiliser manufacturer and distributor. Fertiliser is a cyclical business...

Morningstar, Inc.

We've Cut Our Potash Producer Fair Value Estimate on Price Pressure, But Shares Look Compelling

We have lowered our long-term potash price outlook roughly 10% to $285 (real terms) per metric ton from $315. We now expect negotiations with...

Morningstar, Inc.

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