Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>New orders are running ahead of sales as semiconductor capital spending continues to rise and the company follows TSMC to Arizona.</li>
<li>Water treatment for the semiconductor industry is of growing importance as more emphasis is put on recycling.</li>
<li>Share price up, but still reasonably valued. 3Q results should be out the first week of February.</li>
</ul>


New orders are running ahead of sales as semiconductor capital spending continues to rise and the company follows TSMC to Arizona.
Water treatment for the semiconductor industry is of growing importance as more emphasis is put on recycling.
Share price up, but still reasonably valued. 3Q results should be out the first week of February.


Organo (6368 JP): From Taiwan to the U.S.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• RESULTS - 29th MARCH •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/979/original/image_20691903021617048798901.png?1617048799" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197979"></figure>RESULTS -  Of Monday's three results, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcland-sakamoto-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10395:1" rel="noopener">Arcland Sakamoto (9842 JP)</a> stands out but is driven by the LIXIL VIVA acquisition. The FY22 forecasts are conservative and leave ample room for an upward revision. Arcland is our preferred Home Centre holding and is back into an attractive buying zone following last year's COVID-driven spike into OverBought territory.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/985/original/image_58825059031617049684417.png?1617049685" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197985"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/986/original/image_44235549241617050056401.png?1617050057" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197986"></figure>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 29th MARCH •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/987/original/image_83881428151617050520638.png?1617050521" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197987"></figure>FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Of the 14 annual forecasts and revisions, 57% scored positively. The DETAIL Section below focuses on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/organo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1972:1" rel="noopener">Organo (6368 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keihan-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6120:1" rel="noopener">Keihan Electric Railway (9045 JP)</a>. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/988/original/image_80065899161617052150856.png?1617052151" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197988"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/989/original/image_62815698771617052194528.png?1617052195" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197989"></figure>

• RESULTS - 29th MARCH •RESULTS -  Of Monday's three results, Arcland Sakamoto (9842 JP) stands out but is driven by the LIXIL VIVA acquisition. The FY22 forecasts are conservative and leave ample room for an upward revision. Arcland is our preferred Home Centre holding and is back into an attractive buying zone following last year's COVID-driven spike into OverBought territory.• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 29th MARCH •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Of the 14 annual forecasts and revisions, 57% scored positively. The DETAIL Section below focuses on Organo (6368 JP) and Keihan Electric Railway (9045 JP). 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​​​​​29 - Arcland, Organo & Keihan

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<ul>
<li>Organo has rebounded from December's sharp sell-off, but remains attractively valued on a long-term view, in our estimation. </li>
<li>New orders for water treatment systems from the semiconductor and other industries were up 22% year-on-year and exceeded sales by 33% in the nine months to December.</li>
<li>According to management, orders continued to exceed sales in the three months to March, but are likely to drop below sales in 1H of FY Mar-20 due to the downturn in memory ICs.</li>
<li>But the situation is not dire, as overall silicon wafer shipments and demand for image sensors both continue to rise, while foundry is doing better than memory.</li>
<li>Longer term, management expects growth driven by IIoT, power devices,  electric vehicles, and a cyclical recovery in memory. The biggest uncertainty is Chinese domestic demand.</li>
<li>Some orders have been deferred by one or two quarters, but the company has so far not suffered any cancellations. With a one-year lag from order to revenue recognition for larger projects, management believes it has sufficient visibility to predict improvement in 2H.</li>
<li>Management has no plans to revise FY Mar-19 guidance, which is for a 14.9% increase in sales, a 43.9% increase in operating profit and a 33.1% increase in net profit to ¥322.5 per share. At ¥3,200 (Friday, April 5 closing price), this translates into a P/E ratio of 9.9x.</li>
<li>In our estimation, this is cheap enough to be of interest to long-term investors. In the meantime, the calculations of Japan Analytics show upside to a no-growth valuation. Little or no growth appears to be the most likely scenario for FY Mar-20.</li>
<li class="content-highlight">Organo is Japan's second-ranking industrial water treatment company after Kurita Water Industries (6370). Both provide ultra-pure water processing equipment and related products and services to the semiconductor industry. Kurita ranks first in Japan and Korea, Organo ranks first in Taiwan, and both companies compete in China.</li>
</ul>


Organo has rebounded from December's sharp sell-off, but remains attractively valued on a long-term view, in our estimation. 
New orders for water treatment systems from the semiconductor and other industries were up 22% year-on-year and exceeded sales by 33% in the nine months to December.
According to management, orders continued to exceed sales in the three months to March, but are likely to drop below sales in 1H of FY Mar-20 due to the downturn in memory ICs.
But the situation is not dire, as overall silicon wafer shipments and demand for image sensors both continue to rise, while foundry is doing better than memory.
Longer term, management expects growth driven by IIoT, power devices,  electric vehicles, and a cyclical recovery in memory. The biggest uncertainty is Chinese domestic demand.
Some orders have been deferred by one or two quarters, but the company has so far not suffered any cancellations. With a one-year lag from order to revenue recognition for larger projects, management believes it has sufficient visibility to predict improvement in 2H.
Management has no plans to revise FY Mar-19 guidance, which is for a 14.9% increase in sales, a 43.9% increase in operating profit and a 33.1% increase in net profit to ¥322.5 per share. At ¥3,200 (Friday, April 5 closing price), this translates into a P/E ratio of 9.9x.
In our estimation, this is cheap enough to be of interest to long-term investors. In the meantime, the calculations of Japan Analytics show upside to a no-growth valuation. Little or no growth appears to be the most likely scenario for FY Mar-20.
Organo is Japan's second-ranking industrial water treatment company after Kurita Water Industries (6370). Both provide ultra-pure water processing equipment and related products and services to the semiconductor industry. Kurita ranks first in Japan and Korea, Organo ranks first in Taiwan, and both companies compete in China.


Organo (6368 JP): Company Visit Notes and Conclusions

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We screened for names with little or no coverage that have been growing over the last couple of years and the valuations look really good. For the forecast numbers, we are using company guidance as most of the names do not have Analyst coverage. Basically we are looking for names that are not well known but are growing and valuations are cheap.Names with very low PE ratios are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15900" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15900:1">Sanyo Special Steel Co Ltd (5481 JP)</a> with a 2x PE, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9957" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9957:1">Toenec Corp (1946 JP)</a> with a 3x PE and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1972" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1972:1">Organo Corp (6368 JP)</a> with a…

We screened for names with little or no coverage that have been growing over the last couple of years and the valuations look really good. For the forecast numbers, we are using company guidance as most of the names do not have Analyst coverage. Basically we are looking for names that are not well known but are growing and valuations are cheap.Names with very low PE ratios are Sanyo Special Steel Co Ltd (5481 JP) with a 2x PE, Toenec Corp (1946 JP) with a 3x PE and Organo Corp (6368 JP) with a…

Small-Cap Growth Names with Good Valuations in Japan....

Japan

ORGANO CORPORATION manufactures water treatment equipment and other related peripherals and supplies.  The Company also produces industrial chemical products such as activated carbon and charcoal, water treatment compounds, and ion exchange resins.  Organo's water treatment systems are used for ultra-pure water production in nuclear power and semiconductor manufacturing processes.

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Organo Corp (6368 JP)

Organo (6368 JP): From Taiwan to the U.S.

Share price up but now consolidating and reasonably valued. Following TSMC to Arizona. Geared to semiconductor capacity expansion and growing...

Scott Foster

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/29 - Arcland, Organo & Keihan

Of Monday's three results, Arcland Sakamoto (9842 JP) stands out but is driven by the LIXIL VIVA acquisition. The FY22 forecasts are conservative...

Campbell Gunn

Organo (6368 JP): Company Visit Notes and Conclusions

Organo has rebounded from December's sharp sell-off, but remains attractively valued on a long-term view, in our estimation. New orders for water...

Scott Foster

Small-Cap Growth Names with Good Valuations in Japan....

We screened for names with little or no coverage that have been growing over the last couple of years and the valuations look really good. For the...

Custom Products Group

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Organo (6368 JP): From Taiwan to the U.S.

Share price up but now consolidating and reasonably valued. Following TSMC to Arizona. Geared to semiconductor capacity expansion and growing...

Scott Foster

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​​​​​29 - Arcland, Organo & Keihan

Of Monday's three results, Arcland Sakamoto (9842 JP) stands out but is driven by the LIXIL VIVA acquisition. The FY22 forecasts are conservative...

Campbell Gunn

Organo (6368 JP): Company Visit Notes and Conclusions

Organo has rebounded from December's sharp sell-off, but remains attractively valued on a long-term view, in our estimation. New orders for water...

Scott Foster

Small-Cap Growth Names with Good Valuations in Japan....

We screened for names with little or no coverage that have been growing over the last couple of years and the valuations look really good. For the...

Custom Products Group

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/29 - Arcland, Organo & Keihan