Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they <em>could</em> roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tokyo stocks faced a volatile week, with the Nikkei falling 1.5% and the Topix down 1.7%, largely impacted by shifting global sentiment and policy uncertainty.</li>
<li>Trump’s surprise 25% auto tariff announcement triggered a sharp selloff in automakers, especially Nissan (-7%) and Mazda (-6%).</li>
<li>Oracle Japan stock rose 12% on record Q3 earnings, strong cloud growth, and AI projects, while Sumitomo Realty gained 10% on Elliott’s stake and governance reform hopes.</li>
</ul>


Tokyo stocks faced a volatile week, with the Nikkei falling 1.5% and the Topix down 1.7%, largely impacted by shifting global sentiment and policy uncertainty.
Trump’s surprise 25% auto tariff announcement triggered a sharp selloff in automakers, especially Nissan (-7%) and Mazda (-6%).
Oracle Japan stock rose 12% on record Q3 earnings, strong cloud growth, and AI projects, while Sumitomo Realty gained 10% on Elliott’s stake and governance reform hopes.


Japan Strategy Weekly | Trump’s Surprise 25% Auto Tariff

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: Equity Rally Continues SPX +1.5% with all Sectors Up; Tech Surges -&gt;NDX100 +2.2%;  China Banks Cuts Mortgage rates to shore up economy;  BitCoin lease on life w/US Court Ruling</li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% v Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Yen's buying power at 53 year low; Japan's jobless rate ticks up-risk for higher wages; SDF Head says Military Capabilities Inadequate</li>
<li>JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Aims to Dominate India with Manufacturing Expansion. With more locally manufactured products, Fasty will be better able to grow share in India. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: Equity Rally Continues SPX +1.5% with all Sectors Up; Tech Surges -&gt;NDX100 +2.2%;  China Banks Cuts Mortgage rates to shore up economy;  BitCoin lease on life w/US Court Ruling
JAPAN: NKY Futures +0.7% v Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Yen's buying power at 53 year low; Japan's jobless rate ticks up-risk for higher wages; SDF Head says Military Capabilities Inadequate
JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Aims to Dominate India with Manufacturing Expansion. With more locally manufactured products, Fasty will be better able to grow share in India. 


Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India

Japan

ORACLE CORPORATION JAPAN sells a variety of software, including database management system software, application development tools, decision-making support tools, and business related applications.  The Company also provides support services for users.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Oracle Corp Japan (4716 JP)

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | Trump’s Surprise 25% Auto Tariff

Tokyo stocks see volatility as global sentiment shifts, Trump's auto tariff announcement triggers selloff in automakers, Oracle Japan and Sumitomo...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India

US stocks rally; Tech surges. NKY Futures +0.7% v Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Yen's buying power at 53 year low; Japan's jobless rate ticks up; SDF Head...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | Trump’s Surprise 25% Auto Tariff

​Tokyo stocks see volatility as global sentiment shifts, Trump's auto tariff announcement triggers selloff in automakers, Oracle Japan and Sumitomo...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan|Equity Rally Continues; Tech Surges; JAPAN X: Fast Retailing Sets Its Sights on India

US stocks rally; Tech surges. NKY Futures +0.7% v Cash; USDJPY 145.9; Yen's buying power at 53 year low; Japan's jobless rate ticks up; SDF Head...

Mark Chadwick

Tokyo stocks see volatility as global sentiment shifts, Trump's auto tariff announcement triggers selloff in automakers, Oracle Japan and Sumitomo...