Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle.</li><li>I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between the lines (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chatgpt-o1-strawberry-and-memory" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory)</a></li><li>Fast-forward a week, and it seems that the calls for the end of memory were a bit premature.</li></ul>

Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle.I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between the lines (ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory)Fast-forward a week, and it seems that the calls for the end of memory were a bit premature.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Some more minor data points and highlights: KLIC (ball bonders) says that utilization is 75-80%, which is a good read on China despite the negative industrial headwind.</li>
<li>Allegro Microsystems is definitely scraping the bottom, and while Sanken (its distributor) is still increasing its inventory, I like the setup there.</li>
<li>Arrow Electronics (Distributor) says things are improving, which is a big counterpoint to everything else.</li>
</ul>


Some more minor data points and highlights: KLIC (ball bonders) says that utilization is 75-80%, which is a good read on China despite the negative industrial headwind.
Allegro Microsystems is definitely scraping the bottom, and while Sanken (its distributor) is still increasing its inventory, I like the setup there.
Arrow Electronics (Distributor) says things are improving, which is a big counterpoint to everything else.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

<ul><li>Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable) convertible offering that tanked shares right after.</li><li>All subsystems (except Ichor which sucks) look to be in a much better spot.</li><li>The summary is that Subsystems revenue should continue improving into the second half and that 2025 will be a strong year.</li></ul>

Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable) convertible offering that tanked shares right after.All subsystems (except Ichor which sucks) look to be in a much better spot.The summary is that Subsystems revenue should continue improving into the second half and that 2025 will be a strong year.

Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Onto Innovation, a leading provider of innovative technological services, recently marked a successful close of its fourth quarter for the fiscal year 2023 with revenue figures exceeding the high-end projection.</li><li>This financial success was primarily credited to the strong demand for the company's Dragonfly inspection systems supporting the packaging of memory and logic devices for AI applications.</li><li>Onto Innovation's CEO, Michael Plisinski, forecasts continued demand for the products reiterating their crucial role in AI device production.</li></ul>

Onto Innovation, a leading provider of innovative technological services, recently marked a successful close of its fourth quarter for the fiscal year 2023 with revenue figures exceeding the high-end projection.This financial success was primarily credited to the strong demand for the company's Dragonfly inspection systems supporting the packaging of memory and logic devices for AI applications.Onto Innovation's CEO, Michael Plisinski, forecasts continued demand for the products reiterating their crucial role in AI device production.

Onto Innovation: Is The Strong Demand For AI Catapulting Them Into A Different League? - Major Drivers

United States

Onto Innovation Inc. provides process control solutions and inspection systems. The Company offers solutions which primarily used in the fabrication of semiconductors and other solid-state devices, as well as industrial and scientific applications. Onto Innovation serves customers in the United States.

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Nanometrics Inc (ONTO US)

Micron and WFE

Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle. I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings: ALGM, LRCX, TOLEY, NVMI, ONTO

Hello, this is a slightly more relaxed week of earnings. I’m going to focus a lot on Allegro and then mention some high-level reads. I’ll keep...

Fabricated Knowledge

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime

The final week of earnings other than Nvidia. Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable)...

Fabricated Knowledge

Onto Innovation: Is The Strong Demand For AI Catapulting Them Into A Different League? - Major Drivers

Onto Innovation, a leading provider of innovative technological services, recently marked a successful close of its fourth quarter for the fiscal...

Baptista Research

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