External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>NBS property data in 1Q24 remained sluggish but was well expected by the market.</li><li>REI decline widened to 9.5% from -9.0% in 2M24 even though continued base adjustment lowered the number in 1Q23 by 6%. REI was at - 15% if excluding this impact.</li><li>The decline of property sales value narrowed a bit more than decline in sales volume, reflecting a 1.4% hike in ASP as more supply was from higher tier cities with higher ASP in Mar. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NBS property data in 1Q24 remained sluggish but was well expected by the market.REI decline widened to 9.5% from -9.0% in 2M24 even though continued base adjustment lowered the number in 1Q23 by 6%. REI was at - 15% if excluding this impact.The decline of property sales value narrowed a bit more than decline in sales volume, reflecting a 1.4% hike in ASP as more supply was from higher tier cities with higher ASP in Mar. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - NBS 1Q24: Weakness Was Well Expected, Expecting More Financing-Side Policies

<ul><li>The State Council’s meeting held last Friday reiterated the crucial role of real estate industry for stabilizing the macro economy, which sparked another round of anticipation for more supporting policies among investors.</li><li>Share prices of quality names in the sector inched up 2-3% yesterday in response.</li><li>We think it is possible to see more relaxation in tier-1 cities while the effect on property sales could be limited as residents’ future income expectation has not yet recovered and developers are still deeply mired in debt crisis. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The State Council’s meeting held last Friday reiterated the crucial role of real estate industry for stabilizing the macro economy, which sparked another round of anticipation for more supporting policies among investors.Share prices of quality names in the sector inched up 2-3% yesterday in response.We think it is possible to see more relaxation in tier-1 cities while the effect on property sales could be limited as residents’ future income expectation has not yet recovered and developers are still deeply mired in debt crisis. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly highlight: Tier-1 cities showed WoW recovery, YoY decline remains deep

<ul><li>YY’s Asia reported that 12 national banks are planning to provide RMB 80bn syndicate loan for Vanke to repay its future maturing debt, and several banks have confirmed this news.</li><li>We think this confirms our previous statement that “regulators have reached a consensus on Vanke’s position as a systematically important developer”, showing a clear attitude to provide financial assistance to Vanke.</li><li>This would bring more confidence to the market during the debt repayment peak.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

YY’s Asia reported that 12 national banks are planning to provide RMB 80bn syndicate loan for Vanke to repay its future maturing debt, and several banks have confirmed this news.We think this confirms our previous statement that “regulators have reached a consensus on Vanke’s position as a systematically important developer”, showing a clear attitude to provide financial assistance to Vanke.This would bring more confidence to the market during the debt repayment peak.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Sales Show Recovery Sign, Banks May Help Semi-SOE

<ul><li>The NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) property data was in-line in December 2023, the full year property sales value/property investment decline narrowed to -6.5%/-9.6% YoY (-12.5/-16.5% excluding base adjustment impact) from -26.7/- 10% in 2022，still in bottoming process.</li><li>Looking into 2024, we believe the recovery in new home market will still take time.</li><li>Sales and investments may show a continuous fall at -4/-9% YoY in our view, considering the diminishing policy effect, developers’ debt issue which may squeeze purchase demand to secondary market, low land acquisition in 2023 which may result in a lower level of quality saleable resource, and higher affordable housing supply which may lead to less demand for commercial housing. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) property data was in-line in December 2023, the full year property sales value/property investment decline narrowed to -6.5%/-9.6% YoY (-12.5/-16.5% excluding base adjustment impact) from -26.7/- 10% in 2022，still in bottoming process.Looking into 2024, we believe the recovery in new home market will still take time.Sales and investments may show a continuous fall at -4/-9% YoY in our view, considering the diminishing policy effect, developers’ debt issue which may squeeze purchase demand to secondary market, low land acquisition in 2023 which may result in a lower level of quality saleable resource, and higher affordable housing supply which may lead to less demand for commercial housing. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – NBS Dec data in line, still in bottoming process

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100 KS)</a> continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.</li>
<li>There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.</li>
<li>Creations continued in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US)</a> ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.</li>
</ul>



Posco DX (022100 KS) continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.
There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in CSI 300 Index ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.
Creations continued in the iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

China

Onewo Inc. operates as a property management service provider. The Company operates and manages residential communities, workspaces, public premises, and others. Onewo provides its services throughout Hong Kong.

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Onewo (2602 HK)

Property - NBS 1Q24: Weakness Was Well Expected, Expecting More Financing-Side Policies

REI decline widened to 9.5% from -9.0% in 2M24 even though continued base adjustment lowered the number in 1Q23 by 6%. REI was at - 15% if...

CMB International

Property - Weekly highlight: Tier-1 cities showed WoW recovery, YoY decline remains deep

The State Council’s meeting held last Friday reiterated the crucial role of real estate industry for stabilizing the macro economy

CMB International

Property - Sales Show Recovery Sign, Banks May Help Semi-SOE

Yesterday, the developers surged 8% due to the Vanke’s news mentioned above. We believe news related to developers debt repayment will continue to...

CMB International

China Property Sector – NBS Dec data in line, still in bottoming process

The NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) property data was in-line in December 2023, the full year property sales value/property investment decline...

CMB International

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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