IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-robotics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36816:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Robotics (454910 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (1822695D US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integral-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40028:1" rel="noopener">Integral Corporation (5842 JP)</a> IPOs and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a> de-SPAC.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intage-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3151:1" rel="noopener">Intage Holdings (4326 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mason-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17664:1" rel="noopener">Mason Group Holdings (273 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Doosan Robotics (454910 KS), ARM Holdings (1822695D US), VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US), Integral Corporation (5842 JP) IPOs and Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK) de-SPAC.
Event-Driven developments - JMDC (4483 JP), Intage Holdings (4326 JP), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (10 Sep) - JMDC, Intage, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, ARM, Integral, Doosan, VNG

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In February 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/noritsu-koki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3091:1" rel="noopener">Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)</a> sold a chunk of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron Corp (6645 JP)</a> for nearly US$1bn. 7mos later, Omron supported a primary offering.</li>
<li>Now Omron is going to 50+%, as Noritsu Koki is getting out. Other investors have to participate for this to succeed. </li>
<li>The question of pro-ration may be a question of Elmer vs Mr Partridge. But Elmer has a point here. </li>
</ul>


In February 2022, Noritsu Koki (7744 JP) sold a chunk of JMDC (4483 JP) to Omron Corp (6645 JP) for nearly US$1bn. 7mos later, Omron supported a primary offering.
Now Omron is going to 50+%, as Noritsu Koki is getting out. Other investors have to participate for this to succeed. 
The question of pro-ration may be a question of Elmer vs Mr Partridge. But Elmer has a point here. 


Omron Partial Offer for JMDC (4483) - The Engagement Is On! This Is the Script, This Is the Timing

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> announced a partial tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron Corp (6645 JP)</a>, the largest shareholder. Omron aims to make JMDC a consolidated subsidiary.  </li>
<li>The offer is for a minimum of 12.0m shares (18.52% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 15.0m shares (23.08%) at JPY5,700 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Irrevocables (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/noritsu-koki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3091:1" rel="noopener">Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)</a>) represent a 13.63% ownership ratio. While the offer is light, it will likely succeed as the minimum acceptance condition requires a 7.1% minority acceptance rate. </li>
</ul>



JMDC (4483 JP) announced a partial tender offer for Omron Corp (6645 JP), the largest shareholder. Omron aims to make JMDC a consolidated subsidiary.  
The offer is for a minimum of 12.0m shares (18.52% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 15.0m shares (23.08%) at JPY5,700 per share, a 22.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
Irrevocables (Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)) represent a 13.63% ownership ratio. While the offer is light, it will likely succeed as the minimum acceptance condition requires a 7.1% minority acceptance rate. 


JMDC (4483 JP): Omron’s Partial Tender Offer

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Omron's stock price has collapsed 20% after missing Q1 earnings estimates. </li>
<li>The recovery in demand has been pushed back - the company may cut its full year guidance at the interim stage</li>
<li>On near-term earnings, the stock is around fair value. There is +20% upside for longer-term investors based on our DCF </li>
</ul>


Omron's stock price has collapsed 20% after missing Q1 earnings estimates. 
The recovery in demand has been pushed back - the company may cut its full year guidance at the interim stage
On near-term earnings, the stock is around fair value. There is +20% upside for longer-term investors based on our DCF 


Omron (6645) | Long-Term View Unchanged but Bumpy Ride

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.</li>
<li>On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.</li>
<li>Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That's the dream scenario. But I don't see it coming soon.</li>
</ul>



Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.
On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.
Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That's the dream scenario. But I don't see it coming soon.


Japan

OMRON Corporation manufactures electronic components, equipment and systems used for factory automation. The Company provides products and services in a variety of fields including industrial automation, electronic components, automotive electronics, social systems such as ticket gate machines and traffic control, and healthcare.

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Omron Corp (6645 JP)

Weekly Deals Digest (10 Sep) - JMDC, Intage, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, ARM, Integral, Doosan, VNG

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (JMDC, Intage, Mason, Liontown, Newcrest, OreCorp, United Malt, MPI) and ECM (Doosan...

Arun George

Omron Partial Offer for JMDC (4483) - The Engagement Is On! This Is the Script, This Is the Timing

The Omron TOB for JMDC is designed to consolidate JMDC, and give both Noritsu Koki and minorities a chance to sell higher. We have an Elmer vs Mr...

Travis Lundy

JMDC (4483 JP): Omron’s Partial Tender Offer

While the offer is light, it will succeed as the minimum acceptance condition requires a low 7.1% minority acceptance rate. The tender offer runs...

Arun George

Omron (6645) | Long-Term View Unchanged but Bumpy Ride

We remain bullish on Industrial Automation where we see structural growth from industry 4.0. On a 1-2 year view IAB will continue to benefit from...

Mark Chadwick

Bank of Kyoto (8369) - Too Far Too Fast

Bank of Kyoto (8369) has a 50% payout but its shareholder base isn’t that supportive of activism need to monetise the value of the equity...

Travis Lundy

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