Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Old Dominion Freight Line / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>This is our first report on a major LTL shipping company, Old Dominion Freight Line.</li><li>As a result, the company delivered double-digit growth in earnings per diluted share in the fourth quarter.</li><li>Besides that, the productive labor expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 170 basis points within their direct operating costs, while their purchase transportation costs decreased by 200 basis points.</li></ul>

This is our first report on a major LTL shipping company, Old Dominion Freight Line.As a result, the company delivered double-digit growth in earnings per diluted share in the fourth quarter.Besides that, the productive labor expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 170 basis points within their direct operating costs, while their purchase transportation costs decreased by 200 basis points.

Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>According to BeSpoke investment firm research, the top 10% of the most heavily shorted stocks are up an average of 36.3% so far this year.</li><li>This includes troubled retailer Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY) whose shares surged by more than 18% Thursday, a day after they missed a Feb. 1 interest payment and warned that it might file for bankruptcy within weeks.</li><li>Other stocks like online car dealer Carvana and any company which has anything remotely associated with artificial intelligence (AI) have seen similar spikes.</li></ul>

According to BeSpoke investment firm research, the top 10% of the most heavily shorted stocks are up an average of 36.3% so far this year.This includes troubled retailer Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY) whose shares surged by more than 18% Thursday, a day after they missed a Feb. 1 interest payment and warned that it might file for bankruptcy within weeks.Other stocks like online car dealer Carvana and any company which has anything remotely associated with artificial intelligence (AI) have seen similar spikes.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Select Medical Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are starting to see some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that additional downside is limited from here.</li>
<li>We need to see downtrend reversals (get above 4030-4040 on SPX, $189 on IWM, and $115 on IWC) and for the NDX(QQQ) to break above $315, to get more constructive.</li>
<li>Positive signals include, among other things: the Financial Sector (XLF) and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges ETF (IAI) are reversing topside their 4-5-month downtrends.</li>
</ul>


We are starting to see some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that additional downside is limited from here.
We need to see downtrend reversals (get above 4030-4040 on SPX, $189 on IWM, and $115 on IWC) and for the NDX(QQQ) to break above $315, to get more constructive.
Positive signals include, among other things: the Financial Sector (XLF) and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges ETF (IAI) are reversing topside their 4-5-month downtrends.


Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

We continue to believe we are nearing the end of the "mixed market environment," and the beginning of a new, broad-based bull market advance. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Additionally, we would like to see MSCI China (MCHI) break above $74 resistance; this would be a major boon for risk sentiment.Charts highlighted: Russell 2000 (IWM), SOXX, XTN, GLD vs. SPY, TNX, S&amp;P 500, AMD, MRVL, XLNX, STM, MPWR, ON, ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, RUN, SPWR, CSIQ, SOL, ODFL, JBHT, KNX, LSTR, SAIA, SNDR, ARCB, MRTN, PTSI, YELL, and USAK

We continue to believe we are nearing the end of the "mixed market environment," and the beginning of a new, broad-based bull market advance. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Additionally, we would like to see MSCI China (MCHI) break above $74 resistance; this would be a major boon for risk sentiment.Charts highlighted: Russell 2000 (IWM), SOXX, XTN, GLD vs. SPY, TNX, S&amp;P 500, AMD, MRVL, XLNX, STM, MPWR, ON, ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, RUN, SPWR, CSIQ, SOL, ODFL, JBHT, KNX, LSTR, SAIA, SNDR, ARCB, MRTN, PTSI, YELL, and USAK

U.S. Equity Strategy: All Eyes On The Small Cap Russell 2000. Buying Semiconductors, Solar, Truckers

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

Back on January 5, 2021, we published an insight highlighting the proposed break-up of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpo-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12017:1" rel="noopener">Xpo Logistics (XPO US) </a>- SpinTalk: Multiple Envy Propels XPO Logistics' Break-Up Move To Get Its Mojo Back - via the separation of its logistics operations from its transportation business. This corporate event is now just a few days away and will be executed via  the tax-free spin-off of the logistics business GXO Logistics (GXO US) on August 2, 2021, effected through a 1-for-1 distribution of new GXO shares to XPO shareholders. With the separating companies having begun When-Issued trading as of July 22, 2021,  we believe this to be an opportune to review and update our value assessment of the upcoming  event. On a pre-spin basis , our updated assessment values  XPO at $163-$197, not too far from our first stab of $169-$186 made in January. This represents  an increase of 16% to 40% on the prevailing share price of $141.03,  which itself represents an 19% accretion from the $118.92 price printed in our January insight. However, with only one trading left before the separation becomes effective, the focus should be on the post-spin entities when they begin trading regular on Monday. While the XPO share price has reacted well to the break-up strategy, we believe there is still more value to be had in both sides of the spin-off as we lay out our thesis below.

Back on January 5, 2021, we published an insight highlighting the proposed break-up of Xpo Logistics (XPO US) - SpinTalk: Multiple Envy Propels XPO Logistics' Break-Up Move To Get Its Mojo Back - via the separation of its logistics operations from its transportation business. This corporate event is now just a few days away and will be executed via  the tax-free spin-off of the logistics business GXO Logistics (GXO US) on August 2, 2021, effected through a 1-for-1 distribution of new GXO shares to XPO shareholders. With the separating companies having begun When-Issued trading as of July 22, 2021,  we believe this to be an opportune to review and update our value assessment of the upcoming  event. On a pre-spin basis , our updated assessment values  XPO at $163-$197, not too far from our first stab of $169-$186 made in January. This represents  an increase of 16% to 40% on the prevailing share price of $141.03,  which itself represents an 19% accretion from the $118.92 price printed in our January insight. However, with only one trading left before the separation becomes effective, the focus should be on the post-spin entities when they begin trading regular on Monday. While the XPO share price has reacted well to the break-up strategy, we believe there is still more value to be had in both sides of the spin-off as we lay out our thesis below.

SpinTalk: More Value To Be Had In Now Imminent XPO Logistics Break-Up

United States

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is an inter-regional and multi-regional motor carrier.  The Company primarily transports less-than-truckload shipments of general commodities, such as consumer goods, textiles, and capital goods.  Old Dominion serves regional markets throughout the United States.

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Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL US)

Old Dominion Freight Line Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

This is our first report on a major LTL shipping company, Old Dominion Freight Line. As a result, the company delivered double-digit growth in...

Baptista Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 2/6

According to BeSpoke investment firm research, the top 10% of the most heavily shorted stocks are up an average of 36.3% so far this year.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

Positive developments are popping up, such as bullish reversals of 4-5-month downtrends for Financials $XLF and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges $IAI ....

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: All Eyes On The Small Cap Russell 2000. Buying Semiconductors, Solar, Truckers

The PHLX Semiconductor index (SOXX) and the equal-weighted Transportation Sector (XTN) are the latest cyclical areas to break out to new YTD...

Vermilion Research

SpinTalk: More Value To Be Had In Now Imminent XPO Logistics Break-Up

XPO may have got its mojo back since first announcing the possible break-up of the company in early 2020, but with the break-up now imminent, we...

Robert Sassoon

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