Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam International (OLAM SP)</a> has been a poor stock price performer on the SGX ever since it was attacked by short-seller Muddy Waters in 2012. Olam was essentially rescued by Temasek while peer Noble went bust. The 10-year stock chart says it all. Olam recently closed at 1.76 SGD, far below its peak of 2.64 SGD last reached in February 2012!<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/233/967/original/image_58873528221633585900666.png?1633585903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="233967"></figure>Fast forward almost ten years and Olam is set to go into a period of heightened corporate activity to get Temasek (53% shareholder) its required exit. As well-telegraphed OFI (Olam Food Ingredients) will list on the LSE in 1H22. The OGA (Olam Global Agri) business could get a listing in the US by late 2022 or early 2023.Both listings could unlock significant value for Temasek and Olam minorities. We expect full-on press coverage, analyst, and corporate banking awareness of the OFI deal come 1H22. Olam is a small company in a global context but at 6.7 billion SGD (18 billion SGD Enterprise Value) it is a big deal for the SGX.Back-of-the-envelope calculations and comments to Reuters and The Times make us conclude that Olam could be worth well over 3 SGD/share depending on the eventual OFI valuation and debt assigned to the unit. In a blue-sky scenario, we even get a valuation as high as 4 SGD. That is 70% to 124% upside from Olam's last traded price on SGX. In this scenario, we assign 0 value to OGA which is unrealistic. Major wild card: what % of Olam's 15 billion SGD debt gets assigned to OFI.Given Temasek's ($400 billion AUM and Singapore's key SWF) importance to global investment banks, we are betting that the players involved will pull out all stops to make OFI's listing a success. Minority investors looking to ride the coattails of "the great Temasek unlock" would be wise to position themselves in Olam stock during 4Q21. The downside is protected by a 4% dividend yield which should be safe in case capital markets make an IPO impossible in 1H22.

Olam International (OLAM SP) has been a poor stock price performer on the SGX ever since it was attacked by short-seller Muddy Waters in 2012. Olam was essentially rescued by Temasek while peer Noble went bust. The 10-year stock chart says it all. Olam recently closed at 1.76 SGD, far below its peak of 2.64 SGD last reached in February 2012!Fast forward almost ten years and Olam is set to go into a period of heightened corporate activity to get Temasek (53% shareholder) its required exit. As well-telegraphed OFI (Olam Food Ingredients) will list on the LSE in 1H22. The OGA (Olam Global Agri) business could get a listing in the US by late 2022 or early 2023.Both listings could unlock significant value for Temasek and Olam minorities. We expect full-on press coverage, analyst, and corporate banking awareness of the OFI deal come 1H22. Olam is a small company in a global context but at 6.7 billion SGD (18 billion SGD Enterprise Value) it is a big deal for the SGX.Back-of-the-envelope calculations and comments to Reuters and The Times make us conclude that Olam could be worth well over 3 SGD/share depending on the eventual OFI valuation and debt assigned to the unit. In a blue-sky scenario, we even get a valuation as high as 4 SGD. That is 70% to 124% upside from Olam's last traded price on SGX. In this scenario, we assign 0 value to OGA which is unrealistic. Major wild card: what % of Olam's 15 billion SGD debt gets assigned to OFI.Given Temasek's ($400 billion AUM and Singapore's key SWF) importance to global investment banks, we are betting that the players involved will pull out all stops to make OFI's listing a success. Minority investors looking to ride the coattails of "the great Temasek unlock" would be wise to position themselves in Olam stock during 4Q21. The downside is protected by a 4% dividend yield which should be safe in case capital markets make an IPO impossible in 1H22.

Olam: Lots of Corporate Activity in '22/'23 to Unlock Significant Value for Temasek and Minorities

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss the Indonesian real estate market, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related lockdowns on the residential, commercial and industrial property markets. We also provide an overview of recent bond defaults. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss the Indonesian real estate market, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related lockdowns on the residential, commercial and industrial property markets. We also provide an overview of recent bond defaults.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Real Estate Market Update - Lucror Analytics

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Yoma Strategic Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

Key Singapore Market Moves and Flows in 3Q21

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - September 2021 - Lucror Analytics

Singapore

Olam Group Ltd operates as a food and agri-business company. The Company supplies food ingredients, feed, fibre, and edible oil. Olam Group serves customers worldwide.

Through our purpose to ‘Re-imagine Global Agriculture and Food Systems’, Olam aims to address the many challenges involved in meeting the needs of a growing global population, while achieving positive impact for farming communities, our planet and all our stakeholders. 

Headquartered and listed in Singapore, Olam currently ranks among the top 30 largest primary listed companies in terms of market capitalisation on SGX-ST.

More information on Olam can be found at www.olamgroup.com. 
	 	 
Olam is located at 7 Straits View, Marina One East Tower #20-01, Singapore 018936. Telephone: +65 63394100, Facsimile: +65 63399755.

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Olam Group (OLG SP)

Olam: Lots of Corporate Activity in '22/'23 to Unlock Significant Value for Temasek and Minorities

Olam is set to see a significant increase in corporate activity in 1H22. Investors would be wise to position in the stock before the newsflow hits...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Asia HY Monthly - Indonesian Real Estate Market Update - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss the Indonesian real estate market, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related...

Lucror Analytics

Key Singapore Market Moves and Flows in 3Q21

In 3Q21, the STI saw its narrowest quarterly trading range since 3Q17, generating a 0.2% decline in total return, while the FTSE APAC Index...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Asia HY Trade Book - September 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - September 2021 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of September includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report...

Lucror Analytics

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