Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Paper manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oji-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11348:1" rel="noopener">Oji Holdings (3861 JP)</a> has spent 25 years not going anywhere. Their current MTMP isn't exciting. And it looks like they will fail worse than last time.</li>
<li>But an activist put their head above the parapet recently, and now the company has announced larger new cross-holding selldown targets, and a big 9% buyback, with a ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow. </li>
<li>The stock is at 0.47x book. They have nearly ¥400bn of financial assets which are non-core. They have land and property holdings. And they have lots of cross-holdings to repurchase.</li>
</ul>


Paper manufacturer Oji Holdings (3861 JP) has spent 25 years not going anywhere. Their current MTMP isn't exciting. And it looks like they will fail worse than last time.
But an activist put their head above the parapet recently, and now the company has announced larger new cross-holding selldown targets, and a big 9% buyback, with a ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow. 
The stock is at 0.47x book. They have nearly ¥400bn of financial assets which are non-core. They have land and property holdings. And they have lots of cross-holdings to repurchase.


Oji Paper (3861 JP) - Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register

David Blennerhassett

Nec Networks & System Integr / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks (1973 JP)</a>'s own FA didn't include any measure of transaction synergies to be created about which NEC and NESIC were so sure. This is not being done right.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-post-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:150:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Post (SPOST SP)</a>'s muted price action after announcing the ~S$900mn FMH sale is illustrative. But expect more value to be unlocked from divesting non-core ops going forward. </li>
<li>The FTC' blocking the giant grocery merger of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kroger-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20824:1" rel="noopener">Kroger Co (KR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albertsons-cos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33026:1" rel="noopener">Albertsons Cos (ACI US)</a> spells trouble for ACT and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Nec Networks (1973 JP)'s own FA didn't include any measure of transaction synergies to be created about which NEC and NESIC were so sure. This is not being done right.

Singapore Post (SPOST SP)'s muted price action after announcing the ~S$900mn FMH sale is illustrative. But expect more value to be unlocked from divesting non-core ops going forward. 
The FTC' blocking the giant grocery merger of Kroger Co (KR US) and Albertsons Cos (ACI US) spells trouble for ACT and Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP).


Last Week in Event SPACE: NEC Network, SingPost, Seven & I, CPMC, Exedy

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Japanese stock market posted a modest gain of 1% for the week, with the Nikkei closing at 39,470 on Friday</li>
<li>Looking ahead, the market remains sensitive to external catalysts such as U.S. monetary policy decisions (FOMC on 17/18th), the BOJ (18/19th), and developments in China’s economic policies.</li>
<li>Topcon's stock skyrocketed 63% this week, fueled by speculation that the eyecare leader may go private.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese stock market posted a modest gain of 1% for the week, with the Nikkei closing at 39,470 on Friday
Looking ahead, the market remains sensitive to external catalysts such as U.S. monetary policy decisions (FOMC on 17/18th), the BOJ (18/19th), and developments in China’s economic policies.
Topcon's stock skyrocketed 63% this week, fueled by speculation that the eyecare leader may go private.


Japan Weekly | Nikkei Edges Up; Topcon, Rakuten, Oji, Bandai

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Silicon carbide chips and new electric vehicles are dominating the news in deep value space, highlighting Rohm, Honda, and Aisin.</li>
<li>We also highlight some juicy dividends that we think need to be taken seriously by growth managers.</li>
<li>This round-up is provided for thought provocation only. Comprehensive deep-dive analysis available to clients on request. </li>
</ul>


Silicon carbide chips and new electric vehicles are dominating the news in deep value space, highlighting Rohm, Honda, and Aisin.
We also highlight some juicy dividends that we think need to be taken seriously by growth managers.
This round-up is provided for thought provocation only. Comprehensive deep-dive analysis available to clients on request. 


Unloved Japan Roundup: Rohm, Honda, Aisin, Jtekt

<ul>
<li>Mazda’s domestic unit volume was up 24% in September, compared to an industrywide total of only 1.1%.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, Q2 consensus EBIT estimates have come down by 32% since the release of Q1 results.</li>
<li>But the yield is over 6%, and the Payout ratio is only 17% even on the new estimates.</li>
</ul>


Mazda’s domestic unit volume was up 24% in September, compared to an industrywide total of only 1.1%.
Meanwhile, Q2 consensus EBIT estimates have come down by 32% since the release of Q1 results.
But the yield is over 6%, and the Payout ratio is only 17% even on the new estimates.


Japan

Oji Holdings Corp manufactures paper, pulp, and processed paper goods, including news print, carbonless paper, wrapping and packaging paper, and paperboard. The Company also produces sanitary paper goods such as disposable diapers. Oji Paper has forests in Japan and overseas, and operates forestry, timber sales, and real estate businesses.

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Oji Holdings (3861 JP)

Oji Paper (3861 JP) - Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register

Oji Paper announced a higher cross-holding selldown target in Nov24. Yesterday, they announced a big buyback. The stock is <10x EPS and 0.47x book....

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: NEC Network, SingPost, Seven & I, CPMC, Exedy

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Edges Up; Topcon, Rakuten, Oji, Bandai

Japanese stock market sees 1% gain, Topcon's stock soars 63%, market remains sensitive to external factors like U.S. monetary policy and China's...

Mark Chadwick

Unloved Japan Roundup: Rohm, Honda, Aisin, Jtekt

New product launches could be the start of a deluge of Silicon carbide-based chips that improve performance and reduce costs of high-powered...

Michael Allen

Unloved Japan Roundup: Bracing for Q3

Mazda’s domestic volume up 24% in September, compared to industrywide average of 1.1%. Q2 estimates down by 32% in 3 months, but yield over 6%,...

Michael Allen

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Oji Paper (3861 JP) - Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register

Oji Paper announced a higher cross-holding selldown target in Nov24. Yesterday, they announced a big buyback. The stock is <10x EPS and 0.47x book....

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: NEC Network, SingPost, Seven & I, CPMC, Exedy

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Edges Up; Topcon, Rakuten, Oji, Bandai

​Japanese stock market sees 1% gain, Topcon's stock soars 63%, market remains sensitive to external factors like U.S. monetary policy and China's...

Mark Chadwick

Unloved Japan Roundup: Rohm, Honda, Aisin, Jtekt

New product launches could be the start of a deluge of Silicon carbide-based chips that improve performance and reduce costs of high-powered...

Michael Allen

Unloved Japan Roundup: Bracing for Q3

Mazda’s domestic volume up 24% in September, compared to industrywide average of 1.1%. Q2 estimates down by 32% in 3 months, but yield over 6%,...

Michael Allen

Japanese stock market sees 1% gain, Topcon's stock soars 63%, market remains sensitive to external factors like U.S. monetary policy and China's...