New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The RBNZ has done its best to make sure none of us approach 2023 with any illusions of good times ahead</li><li>Mortgage rates have hit a 10 year high, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly elevated, and the icing on RBNZ's economic cake is its forecast of four quarters of declining GDP</li><li>When choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan Steel [VSL], KMD Brands [KMD]) or with attractive valuations (Oceania Healthcare [OCA], SkyCity [SKC]) where we think that the bad news is firmly in the price</li></ul>

The RBNZ has done its best to make sure none of us approach 2023 with any illusions of good times aheadMortgage rates have hit a 10 year high, inflation is expected to remain stubbornly elevated, and the icing on RBNZ's economic cake is its forecast of four quarters of declining GDPWhen choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan Steel [VSL], KMD Brands [KMD]) or with attractive valuations (Oceania Healthcare [OCA], SkyCity [SKC]) where we think that the bad news is firmly in the price

Equity Strategy - The Year Ahead: Five Themes and Five Stocks

<ul><li>The aged care sector is valued around or significantly below equity book value</li><li>It's a RYM problem, not a sector problem; three of the four operators are close to debt free in FY26/FY27</li><li>6x EV/annuity EBITDA with no debt in FY27/28 — an attractive proposition</li></ul>

The aged care sector is valued around or significantly below equity book valueIt's a RYM problem, not a sector problem; three of the four operators are close to debt free in FY26/FY276x EV/annuity EBITDA with no debt in FY27/28 — an attractive proposition

Aged Care Sector: What If? Fast Track to Ex-Growth

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered underlying earnings below our expectations due to higher costs and lower new sale gains</li><li>Annuity EBITDA fared better, up +21% versus 1H22 and +4% ahead of our forecasts.</li><li>We remain of the view that OCA is one of the most attractive medium and long term investments under our coverage</li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered underlying earnings below our expectations due to higher costs and lower new sale gainsAnnuity EBITDA fared better, up +21% versus 1H22 and +4% ahead of our forecasts.We remain of the view that OCA is one of the most attractive medium and long term investments under our coverage

Oceania Healthcare: 1H23 Result — Time to Slow Down?

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed 1H23 result with underlying EBITDA of NZ$38.7m below our expectations of NZ$43.1m</li><li>OCA commented that new sales had been slower than expected, in particular with regards to Awatere in Hamilton</li><li>Despite the below expectation headline results, the mix in the result is solid with strong underlying resale gains supporting annuity EBITDA of NZ$26.0 – up +21% versus 1H22 and +4% ahead of our expectations</li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed 1H23 result with underlying EBITDA of NZ$38.7m below our expectations of NZ$43.1mOCA commented that new sales had been slower than expected, in particular with regards to Awatere in HamiltonDespite the below expectation headline results, the mix in the result is solid with strong underlying resale gains supporting annuity EBITDA of NZ$26.0 – up +21% versus 1H22 and +4% ahead of our expectations

Oceania Healthcare (OCA): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

<ul><li>Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reports its 1H23 result on Wednesday 23 November</li><li>We expect focus to be on care profitability, cost control, cash generation and total debt levels</li><li>For OCA we expect ~NZ$80m of increased net debt in 1H23, primarily driven by the acquisition of two villages in the period</li></ul>

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reports its 1H23 result on Wednesday 23 NovemberWe expect focus to be on care profitability, cost control, cash generation and total debt levelsFor OCA we expect ~NZ$80m of increased net debt in 1H23, primarily driven by the acquisition of two villages in the period

Oceania Healthcare: 1H23 Preview — Care, Cash, Credit and Costs

New Zealand

Oceania Healthcare is New Zealand’s largest owners and operators of retirement villages.

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Oceania Healthcare (OCA NZ)

Equity Strategy - The Year Ahead: Five Themes and Five Stocks

When choosing our five stocks to watch we have leaned on companies with the majority of their exposure overseas (Infratil [IFT], Vulcan...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: What If? Fast Track to Ex-Growth

The aged care sector is valued around or significantly below equity book value, which suggests to us that the market is losing confidence not only...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare: 1H23 Result — Time to Slow Down?

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) delivered underlying earnings below our expectations due to higher costs and lower new sale gains; annuity EBITDA fared...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare (OCA): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reported a mixed 1H23 result with underlying EBITDA of NZ$38.7m below our expectations of NZ$43.1m; underlying NPAT of...

Forsyth Barr

Oceania Healthcare: 1H23 Preview — Care, Cash, Credit and Costs

Oceania Healthcare (OCA) reports its 1H23 result on Wednesday 23 November; we expect focus to be on care profitability, cost control, cash...

Forsyth Barr

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