Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In last week’s Compass we noted the S&amp;P 500 was near the top end of the uptrend channel and that the index could fall 2.75%-3.25% before we get to uptrend support. Considering the S&amp;P 500 fell roughly 1% last week we believe the recent pause appears to be a normal and healthy pullback within the multi-month uptrend. Despite the potential for additional backing-and-filling toward the uptrend support, our expectation is that this uptrend continues, supporting our overall positive outlook.

In last week’s Compass we noted the S&amp;P 500 was near the top end of the uptrend channel and that the index could fall 2.75%-3.25% before we get to uptrend support. Considering the S&amp;P 500 fell roughly 1% last week we believe the recent pause appears to be a normal and healthy pullback within the multi-month uptrend. Despite the potential for additional backing-and-filling toward the uptrend support, our expectation is that this uptrend continues, supporting our overall positive outlook.

S&P 500: A Pause in the Uptrend - More Consolidation Expected.

The S&amp;P 500 remains in a long-term uptrend and a shorter-term, YTD consolidation. The next key resistance level to be tested is the all-time high of 2,873 which was set in January. On the plus side, the Advance-Decline (A-D) line, hit a new all-time high last week. Additionally, cap- and equal-weighted cyclicals vs. staples ratios have given up some ground recently but remain conducive to a risk-on environment.In today’s report we provide a complete U.S. equity strategy overview, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Discretionary sector, including: auto parts, small-cap apparel, accessory &amp; luxury goods, and off-price retailers.

The S&amp;P 500 remains in a long-term uptrend and a shorter-term, YTD consolidation. The next key resistance level to be tested is the all-time high of 2,873 which was set in January. On the plus side, the Advance-Decline (A-D) line, hit a new all-time high last week. Additionally, cap- and equal-weighted cyclicals vs. staples ratios have given up some ground recently but remain conducive to a risk-on environment.In today’s report we provide a complete U.S. equity strategy overview, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Discretionary sector, including: auto parts, small-cap apparel, accessory &amp; luxury goods, and off-price retailers.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Retailing Stocks

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

2016 was another bumpy year for China’s luxury goods market, plagued by the long-term impact of the anti-corruption campaign undertaken by the central government and the economic downturn as well as China’s latest effort to curb wrongdoing in luxury consumption in a crackdown on the grey market.

2016 was another bumpy year for China’s luxury goods market, plagued by the long-term impact of the anti-corruption campaign undertaken by the central government and the economic downturn as well as China’s latest effort to curb wrongdoing in luxury consumption in a crackdown on the grey market.

China's Luxury Market Set for Steady Performance Amid Unfavourable Market Environment

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>The secular overweight since 2012 to semiconductor growth themes including sensor, parallel processing and communication chip stocks has outperformed wider tech indices.</li>
<li>The explosion in video steaming, cloud computing and the shift toward semi-autonomous vehicles as well as the huge computational intensity of AI software are all key drivers through end decade.</li>
<li>Global semiconductor industry sales saw accelerating growth from mid-2016, with Q4 sales of $93bn 12.3% higher y/y - semiconductors are…</li>
</ul>


The secular overweight since 2012 to semiconductor growth themes including sensor, parallel processing and communication chip stocks has outperformed wider tech indices.
The explosion in video steaming, cloud computing and the shift toward semi-autonomous vehicles as well as the huge computational intensity of AI software are all key drivers through end decade.
Global semiconductor industry sales saw accelerating growth from mid-2016, with Q4 sales of $93bn 12.3% higher y/y - semiconductors are…


Structural and Cyclical Drivers Underpin Semiconductor Outperformance

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Relations between the US and China could (and likely will) deteriorate in the medium-term for any of the three following reasons: a) increased friction over US-China trade issues; b) more intemperate words or actions from the new US administration regarding Taiwan's political status; c) China more aggressively pursuing various territorial claims in the region (South China Sea, Senkaku Islands). One likely victim of rising tensions between the US and China is tourism between the two countries…

Relations between the US and China could (and likely will) deteriorate in the medium-term for any of the three following reasons: a) increased friction over US-China trade issues; b) more intemperate words or actions from the new US administration regarding Taiwan's political status; c) China more aggressively pursuing various territorial claims in the region (South China Sea, Senkaku Islands). One likely victim of rising tensions between the US and China is tourism between the two countries…

Rising US-China Tensions Will Hurt Tourism; Who Stands to Lose (And to Gain) The Most?

United States

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. retails and supplies automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories.  The Company sells its products to do-it-yourself customers and professional mechanics or service technicians. O'Reilly operates stores throughout the United States.

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O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY US)

S&P 500: A Pause in the Uptrend - More Consolidation Expected.

In last week’s Compass we noted the S&P 500 was near the top end of the uptrend channel and that the index could fall 2.75%-3.25% before we get...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Retailing Stocks

The S&P 500 remains in a long-term uptrend and a shorter-term, YTD consolidation. The next key resistance level to be tested is the all-time...

Vermilion Research

China's Luxury Market Set for Steady Performance Amid Unfavourable Market Environment

2016 was another bumpy year for China’s luxury goods market, plagued by the long-term impact of the anti-corruption campaign undertaken by the...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Structural and Cyclical Drivers Underpin Semiconductor Outperformance

The secular overweight since 2012 to semiconductor growth themes including sensor, parallel processing and communication chip stocks has...

Sean Maher

Rising US-China Tensions Will Hurt Tourism; Who Stands to Lose (And to Gain) The Most?

Relations between the US and China could (and likely will) deteriorate in the medium-term for any of the three following reasons: a) increased...

Daniel Hellberg

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