Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class="">
<li>
This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the merits of Ray Dalio's 'Big Short' on European stocks and add long EUR-SEK and short ZAR-MXN to our watchlist. We stay defensive on USD, US Treasurys and US equities via long positions in JPY, EUR, UST 10s vs 30s and US banks vs FANG+ stocks. We are long AUD-NZD and SGD-CNH and prefer Malaysia to Indian and Philippine equities.</li>
<li>
Monday: Japan trade, Thailand…</li>
</ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the merits of Ray Dalio's 'Big Short' on European stocks and add long EUR-SEK and short ZAR-MXN to our watchlist. We stay defensive on USD, US Treasurys and US equities via long positions in JPY, EUR, UST 10s vs 30s and US banks vs FANG+ stocks. We are long AUD-NZD and SGD-CNH and prefer Malaysia to Indian and Philippine equities.

Monday: Japan trade, Thailand…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

In our report last week, (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bond-yields-in-driver-s-seat-time-for-correction-in-equities-and-the-usd" target="_blank">Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan</a>), we anticipated rising US yields spilling over to a correction in global equities and the USD.  The recovery in the USD has been modest so far, but it may be a creeper as the market pays more attention to risks associated with late-cycle economic growth and central bank policy tightening.   Progress by the US Congress on a funding deal could be the immediate catalyst for more dollar gains.  The recent fall in AUD/NZD appears out-of-line with relative economic trends, yield spread and commodity prices.

In our report last week, (Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan), we anticipated rising US yields spilling over to a correction in global equities and the USD.  The recovery in the USD has been modest so far, but it may be a creeper as the market pays more attention to risks associated with late-cycle economic growth and central bank policy tightening.   Progress by the US Congress on a funding deal could be the immediate catalyst for more dollar gains.  The recent fall in AUD/NZD appears out-of-line with relative economic trends, yield spread and commodity prices.

<div class="content-highlight">
Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 
<ul>
<li>
Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.</li>
<li>
Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee</li>
<li>
Tuesday…</li>
</ul>
</div>


Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 


Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.

Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee

Tuesday…



Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined. Any USD rise is unlikely to provide major headwinds for EM equities until we clear the 92 handle.Macro Euro cycle peak target outlined in the weekly chart.Top bets to front run a DXY low are seen in TRY, BRL, AUD and GBP. We are taking off our USD/SGD short within our Asian transition scenario.USD downside looks limited as down trends in Asia lose bear momentum/conviction as bull divergence takes shape. Can weaker Asian FX turn ahead or a DXY low? The Peso is leading the USD bull turn making the SGD more vulnerable. Korea's Won chart decline is maturing. MYR and CNH long vs the dollar still have more gas.A domino USD bottoming cycle is due in February with a backfill and re test touted into March which should complete an intermediate equity peak, commodity peak and USD low.

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined. Any USD rise is unlikely to provide major headwinds for EM equities until we clear the 92 handle.Macro Euro cycle peak target outlined in the weekly chart.Top bets to front run a DXY low are seen in TRY, BRL, AUD and GBP. We are taking off our USD/SGD short within our Asian transition scenario.USD downside looks limited as down trends in Asia lose bear momentum/conviction as bull divergence takes shape. Can weaker Asian FX turn ahead or a DXY low? The Peso is leading the USD bull turn making the SGD more vulnerable. Korea's Won chart decline is maturing. MYR and CNH long vs the dollar still have more gas.A domino USD bottoming cycle is due in February with a backfill and re test touted into March which should complete an intermediate equity peak, commodity peak and USD low.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Macroeconomics

We conclude five points about Global Liquidity in 2018:<ul><li> Global Liquidity will expand by around US$5 trillion net in 2018. This is still a positive rise, but it is one-third of the 2017 pace. 2017 proved a spectacular year for inflows</li><li>Threats of US Fed and ECB Reverse QE or ‘quantitative squeezing’ will be offset by net expansion of Central Bank balance sheets in EM and Japan</li><li>Reverse QE by Central Banks is not helpful, but cross-border flows pose by far the bigger threat for asset markets this year</li><li>China (27% share) is the most important economy for Global Liquidity, both directly and indirectly through its impact on the Emerging Market flows</li><li>At a 66% share of liquidity flows, the US dollar (with its surrogates) remains de facto the most important currency Worldwide. But if the Chinese Yuan is included based on China’s economic importance, it would immediately take a 26% point market share away from the US dollar. Gold would soar in price?</li></ul>

We conclude five points about Global Liquidity in 2018: Global Liquidity will expand by around US$5 trillion net in 2018. This is still a positive rise, but it is one-third of the 2017 pace. 2017 proved a spectacular year for inflowsThreats of US Fed and ECB Reverse QE or ‘quantitative squeezing’ will be offset by net expansion of Central Bank balance sheets in EM and JapanReverse QE by Central Banks is not helpful, but cross-border flows pose by far the bigger threat for asset markets this yearChina (27% share) is the most important economy for Global Liquidity, both directly and indirectly through its impact on the Emerging Market flowsAt a 66% share of liquidity flows, the US dollar (with its surrogates) remains de facto the most important currency Worldwide. But if the Chinese Yuan is included based on China’s economic importance, it would immediately take a 26% point market share away from the US dollar. Gold would soar in price?

'Quantitative Squeezing': Prospects for Global Liquidity in 2018

New Zealand

The New Zealand dollar is the official currency of New Zealand.  

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NZD (NZD BGN CURNCY)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

USD Rebound Is a Creeper

In our report last week, (Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan), we anticipated rising US yields...

Greg Gibbs

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

USD Short to Long Transition Cycle

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined....

Thomas Schroeder

'Quantitative Squeezing': Prospects for Global Liquidity in 2018

We conclude five points about Global Liquidity in 2018: Global Liquidity will expand by around US$5 trillion net in 2018. This is stilla positive...

Michael J. Howell

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)