Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. </li>
<li>Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.</li>
<li>Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.</li>
</ul>


Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. 
Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.
Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.</li>
<li>TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.</li>
<li>Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.
TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.
Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.


TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
The new clarification of the October export restrictions came out today, and as far as I can tell, it is a slight liberalization of the previous export restrictions for semicap. 
</li>
<li>
For AI, it looks to be the closing of the A800 and H800 loopholes.
</li>
<li>
I read both documents. They are pretty dense, and instead of going through a super detailed analysis, I want to give you a spark notes version of the export restrictions and the implications.
</li>
</ul>



The new clarification of the October export restrictions came out today, and as far as I can tell, it is a slight liberalization of the previous export restrictions for semicap. 


For AI, it looks to be the closing of the A800 and H800 loopholes.


I read both documents. They are pretty dense, and instead of going through a super detailed analysis, I want to give you a spark notes version of the export restrictions and the implications.



Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang joined Hon Hai at its annual Tech Day yesterday, announcing  an expansion of their partnership into the development of AI factories that will produce new software.</li>
<li>Hon Hai unveiled its new 'Model N' EV, a van designed for logistics use cases. Its Model C SUV will have first customer deliveries in Taiwan in January 2024E.</li>
<li>The latest Nvidia partnership expansion announcement and EV developments will transform Hon Hai's unique value proposition to automakers. We continue to expect nearly 50% upside for the shares.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang joined Hon Hai at its annual Tech Day yesterday, announcing  an expansion of their partnership into the development of AI factories that will produce new software.
Hon Hai unveiled its new 'Model N' EV, a van designed for logistics use cases. Its Model C SUV will have first customer deliveries in Taiwan in January 2024E.
The latest Nvidia partnership expansion announcement and EV developments will transform Hon Hai's unique value proposition to automakers. We continue to expect nearly 50% upside for the shares.


Hon Hai Tech Day Takeaways: Nvidia Announces AI Factories Partnership; Competitive Advantage for EVs

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>KKR is looking to raise around US$730m via selling a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> (KE) in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.</li>
<li>In our previous notes we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>


KKR is looking to raise around US$730m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
In our previous notes we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.


Kokusai Electric IPO - Not Wholly Convinced, One Needs to Look past the Cycle

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

China's National Team seems absent as Chinese stocks tumble, geopolitics take center stage, but still, Sentiment is not depressed enough.

Jeroen Blokland

TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

TSMC maintained its expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. It also reiterated its view that it can maintain its gross margin near all...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

October Restrictions Implications

The new clarification of the October export restrictions came out today, and as far as I can tell, it is a slight liberalization of the previous...

Fabricated Knowledge

Hon Hai Tech Day Takeaways: Nvidia Announces AI Factories Partnership; Competitive Advantage for EVs

The latest Nvidia partnership expansion will transform Hon Hai's unique value proposition to automakers. We continue to expect nearly 50% upside...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Kokusai Electric IPO - Not Wholly Convinced, One Needs to Look past the Cycle

KKR is looking to raise around US$730m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

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