Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india-lic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15618:1" rel="noopener">Tata Power (TPWR IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-100-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36051:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nmdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2016:1" rel="noopener">Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> and there will be no replacement in the index.</li>
<li>The NMDC deletion along with capping changes means that there is decent volume (and ADV) to buy on quite a few names in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN) and Tata Power (TPWR IN) will be added to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) and Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). 

Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN) will be deleted from the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and there will be no replacement in the index.
The NMDC deletion along with capping changes means that there is decent volume (and ADV) to buy on quite a few names in the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN).


NIFTY100 & CPSE Index Rebalance: Some Big Changes in 3 Weeks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><ul><li>Hybrid structures to gain more traction: We expect India will add ~342GW of RES capacity over FY22-FY30, led by solar +280GW which represents a capex opportunity of INR11.2 trillion (debt funding of INR9.0trillion).</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Duty imposition and incentives to amplify domestic solar equipment industry: Duty imposition on cells/modules and other supportive schemes will provide the much- needed price parity for domestic manufacturers, to compete with Chinese players.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Green hydrogen—huge potential ahead: We believe that green hydrogen’s early adoption will take place across the fertilizer, refining, ammonia, marine, and steel industries.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Hybrid structures to gain more traction: We expect India will add ~342GW of RES capacity over FY22-FY30, led by solar +280GW which represents a capex opportunity of INR11.2 trillion (debt funding of INR9.0trillion).Duty imposition and incentives to amplify domestic solar equipment industry: Duty imposition on cells/modules and other supportive schemes will provide the much- needed price parity for domestic manufacturers, to compete with Chinese players.Green hydrogen—huge potential ahead: We believe that green hydrogen’s early adoption will take place across the fertilizer, refining, ammonia, marine, and steel industries.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Power - Shifting Energy Landscape: Grey to Green Gains Pace

<div><div><div><ul><li>NTPC: Generation/sales increased 3.0%/2.4%YoYto79.9/73.9bnunitsinQ4FY22 on higher YoY base, led by improved demand.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Shree Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Shree Cement, with a revised SOTP target price of INR 22,200/share.</li></ul></div><div><div><div><ul><li>V-GuardIndustries: V-Guard delivered a beat on revenue, with 24 % YoY. growth (12% three-year CAGR), while EBITDA came in line.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

NTPC: Generation/sales increased 3.0%/2.4%YoYto79.9/73.9bnunitsinQ4FY22 on higher YoY base, led by improved demand.Shree Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on Shree Cement, with a revised SOTP target price of INR 22,200/share.V-GuardIndustries: V-Guard delivered a beat on revenue, with 24 % YoY. growth (12% three-year CAGR), while EBITDA came in line.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: NTPC, Shree Cement, V-Guard Industries, Sobha

<ul><li>Our power universe is expected to report a strong 30.8% YoY earnings growth, owing to better power demand in the latter part of Q4FY22 and overall improved merchant realisations</li><li>Revenue for our coverage universe is likely to improve by 7.5% YoY, while PAT is likely to grow 30.8% YoY during the quarter</li><li>The quarter also witnessed a steep rise in imported coal prices and domestic supply constraints, which led to almost 80 plants operating at low inventory levels</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Our power universe is expected to report a strong 30.8% YoY earnings growth, owing to better power demand in the latter part of Q4FY22 and overall improved merchant realisationsRevenue for our coverage universe is likely to improve by 7.5% YoY, while PAT is likely to grow 30.8% YoY during the quarterThe quarter also witnessed a steep rise in imported coal prices and domestic supply constraints, which led to almost 80 plants operating at low inventory levelsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Power: Better Realisation and Low YoY Base to Boost PAT

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The base deficit rose marginally to 0.4% in Dec-21 while peak deficit fell to 0.1% vs 0.6% MoM, with the merchant rate at INR3.2/unit. As of Jan-22, discoms' outstanding dues have risen to INR1066 bn (+18%/+8% on YoY/MoM). We expect power demand to revive during Feb-Mar-22. NTPC, PGCIL, and CESC are our top picks. Generation growth remained subdued in Dec-21 at 2.5% YoY due to low temperatures at the onset of peak winter, which dampened power demand. In the MTD Jan-22 period as well, demand growth stood at 1.5% YoY, mainly due to a partial lockdown imposed across states due to rising COVID cases.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

The base deficit rose marginally to 0.4% in Dec-21 while peak deficit fell to 0.1% vs 0.6% MoM, with the merchant rate at INR3.2/unit. As of Jan-22, discoms' outstanding dues have risen to INR1066 bn (+18%/+8% on YoY/MoM). We expect power demand to revive during Feb-Mar-22. NTPC, PGCIL, and CESC are our top picks. Generation growth remained subdued in Dec-21 at 2.5% YoY due to low temperatures at the onset of peak winter, which dampened power demand. In the MTD Jan-22 period as well, demand growth stood at 1.5% YoY, mainly due to a partial lockdown imposed across states due to rising COVID cases.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Power Plus: Peak winter demand remains subdued

India

NTPC Ltd. owns and operates power generation plants that supply power to state electricity boards throughout India.  The Company is a public sector undertaking of the Government of India and it also undertakes turnkey consulting projects to set up power plants.

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NTPC Ltd (NTPC IN)

NIFTY100 & CPSE Index Rebalance: Some Big Changes in 3 Weeks

LIC and Tata Power will be added to the NIFTY100 Index at the close on 5 August. NMDC is being deleted from the NIFTY100 & CPSE indices. There is a...

Brian Freitas

Power - Shifting Energy Landscape: Grey to Green Gains Pace

Renewables are poised to play a huge role in India’s energy sector, with capacity increasing fourfold by 2030, aided by stringent Renewable Power...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: NTPC, Shree Cement, V-Guard Industries, Sobha

NTPC:Generation/salesincreased3.0%/2.4%YoYto79.9/73.9bnunitsinQ4FY22 on higher YoY base, led by improved demand. Coal PAF improved marginally in Q4...

HDFC Securities

Power: Better Realisation and Low YoY Base to Boost PAT

Our power universe is expected to report a strong 30.8% YoY earnings growth, owing to better power demand in the latter part of Q4FY22 and overall...

HDFC Securities

Power Plus: Peak winter demand remains subdued

The base deficit rose marginally to 0.4% in Dec-21 while peak deficit fell to 0.1% vs 0.6% MoM, with the merchant rate at INR3.2/unit. As of Jan...

HDFC Securities

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