Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.</li>
<li>Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.</li>
<li>This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.</li>
</ul>


A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.
Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.
This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.


Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

<ul>
<li>The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.</li>
<li>We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.</li>
</ul>


The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.
Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.
We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.


Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Genor Biopharma Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jhbp-cy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29201:1" rel="noopener">JHBP (Genor) (6998 HK)</a> received approval in China for its first commercial drug, GB242, a biosimilar to Remicade (infliximab). Approved indications have an addressable patient population of 10 million.</li>
<li>The company is also expected to obtain marketing approval for its drug candidate for the treatment of relapsed and refractory peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL) in China this year.</li>
<li>In-Licensed GB491 (lerociclib) has entered in two phase 3 clinical trials for first and second-line treatments of breast cancer. NDA for GB491 is expected to be filed in 2023.</li>
</ul>



JHBP (Genor) (6998 HK) received approval in China for its first commercial drug, GB242, a biosimilar to Remicade (infliximab). Approved indications have an addressable patient population of 10 million.
The company is also expected to obtain marketing approval for its drug candidate for the treatment of relapsed and refractory peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL) in China this year.
In-Licensed GB491 (lerociclib) has entered in two phase 3 clinical trials for first and second-line treatments of breast cancer. NDA for GB491 is expected to be filed in 2023.


Genor Biopharma (6998 HK): First Product Approved in China; Late-Stage Pipeline Entails Visibility

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santen-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8602:1" rel="noopener">Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP)</a> is the market leader for prescription ophthalmic pharmaceuticals in Japan, with 52% market share. 68% of total revenue comes from domestic market.  </li>
<li>Santen’s key partnered drug, Eylea, which contributes 29% of total revenue, is set to lose patent protection in Japan this year.</li>
<li>Eylea is expected to face competition from biosimilars as well as new biologic drugs launched. This will limit Santen’s near-term growth potential.  </li>
</ul>



Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP) is the market leader for prescription ophthalmic pharmaceuticals in Japan, with 52% market share. 68% of total revenue comes from domestic market.  
Santen’s key partnered drug, Eylea, which contributes 29% of total revenue, is set to lose patent protection in Japan this year.
Eylea is expected to face competition from biosimilars as well as new biologic drugs launched. This will limit Santen’s near-term growth potential.  


Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Future Is Uncertain Beyond Eylea

Switzerland

Novartis AG manufactures pharmaceutical and consumer healthcare products. The Company uses innovative science and digital technologies to create transformative treatments in areas of great medical need. Novartis offers patent protected prescription medicine and generic pharmaceuticals and biosimilars.

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Novartis (NOVN SW)

Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

A bear market bounce is underway after the SPX, QQQ, and IWM found support at their respective downtrend channels. Until these indexes can break...

Vermilion Research

Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

The $DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while China $MCHI and China Internet $KWEB are currently testing their respective multi-month...

Vermilion Research

Genor Biopharma (6998 HK): First Product Approved in China; Late-Stage Pipeline Entails Visibility

Genor obtained marketing approval for its first product in China, one more is expected this year. Commercial execution remains the key near-term...

Tina Banerjee

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Future Is Uncertain Beyond Eylea

Santen’s key drug to face biosimilar competition is the major overhang on the company’s near-term growth potential. The company does not have any...

Tina Banerjee

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