Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics (207940 KS)</a> expects 2023 revenue to grow by more than 20% YoY compared to 15–20% YoY growth expectations earlier, due to better-than-expected utilization of Plant 4.</li>
<li>For the first time in the company’s history, Samsung Biologics has won contracts worth nearly KRW3T during the first half of 2023, with eight contracts worth more than KRW100B each.</li>
<li>Anticipating strong demand, Samsung Biologics is building its fifth manufacturing plant with 180KL capacity, which is expected to be completed by April 2025.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) expects 2023 revenue to grow by more than 20% YoY compared to 15–20% YoY growth expectations earlier, due to better-than-expected utilization of Plant 4.
For the first time in the company’s history, Samsung Biologics has won contracts worth nearly KRW3T during the first half of 2023, with eight contracts worth more than KRW100B each.
Anticipating strong demand, Samsung Biologics is building its fifth manufacturing plant with 180KL capacity, which is expected to be completed by April 2025.


Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Raises 2023 Sales Guidance Second Time This Year; Buy the Dip

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peptidream-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1" rel="noopener">Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)</a> has reported strong result for H1 2023. Revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with the year-ago period.</li>
<li>2023 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue of ¥30B (+12% YoY), core operating profit of ¥6.7B (-31% YoY), and net profit of ¥2.7B (-64% YoY).</li>
<li>In the mid-term (over the next 3–4 years), Peptidream aims for revenue of ~¥50B. The company has set a goal to reach revenue of ~¥100B by 2030.  </li>
</ul>



Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) has reported strong result for H1 2023. Revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with the year-ago period.
2023 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue of ¥30B (+12% YoY), core operating profit of ¥6.7B (-31% YoY), and net profit of ¥2.7B (-64% YoY).
In the mid-term (over the next 3–4 years), Peptidream aims for revenue of ~¥50B. The company has set a goal to reach revenue of ~¥100B by 2030.  


Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On August 29, the Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services unveiled list of 10 drugs, which will come for the first round of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act.</li>
<li>From June 2022 to May 2023, more than 8 million people covered by Medicare used these 10 drugs, which accounted for more than $50B spending in Medicare Part D.</li>
<li>The negotiated price will be effective on January 1, 2026. Most of the companies will not be significantly impacted by the drug price negotiation.</li>
</ul>


On August 29, the Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services unveiled list of 10 drugs, which will come for the first round of price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act.
From June 2022 to May 2023, more than 8 million people covered by Medicare used these 10 drugs, which accounted for more than $50B spending in Medicare Part D.
The negotiated price will be effective on January 1, 2026. Most of the companies will not be significantly impacted by the drug price negotiation.


10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation

<ul>
<li>In 1Q23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peptidream-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1" rel="noopener">Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)</a> recorded revenue of ¥4,963 million, compared to ¥419 million revenue in year-ago period, driven by radiopharmaceutical business segment, which contributed 80% of total revenue.</li>
<li>As of March 31, 2023, the company’s pipeline consisted of 127 discovery and development programs (representing a net increase of 1 program from the end of the prior financial year).</li>
<li>Peptidream reiterated guidance for full-year 2024. Revenue is expected to increase 12% to ¥30B in 2024, while operating and net profits are expected to decline 30% and 64%, respectively.    </li>
</ul>


In 1Q23, Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) recorded revenue of ¥4,963 million, compared to ¥419 million revenue in year-ago period, driven by radiopharmaceutical business segment, which contributed 80% of total revenue.
As of March 31, 2023, the company’s pipeline consisted of 127 discovery and development programs (representing a net increase of 1 program from the end of the prior financial year).
Peptidream reiterated guidance for full-year 2024. Revenue is expected to increase 12% to ¥30B in 2024, while operating and net profits are expected to decline 30% and 64%, respectively.    


Peptidream (4587 JP): 1Q23 Result- Radiopharma Drove Sales; Losses Narrowed; Guidance Reiterated

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

Switzerland

Novartis AG manufactures pharmaceutical and consumer healthcare products. The Company uses innovative science and digital technologies to create transformative treatments in areas of great medical need. Novartis offers patent protected prescription medicine and generic pharmaceuticals and biosimilars.

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Novartis AG Reg (NOVN VX)

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Raises 2023 Sales Guidance Second Time This Year; Buy the Dip

Samsung Bio raised 2023 sales forecast from 15–20% YoY growth to more than 20% YoY increase. Previously, in January, the company expected that this...

Tina Banerjee

Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged

In 1H23, revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with 1H22. 2023 guidance calls for a 12% YoY revenue...

Tina Banerjee

10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation

CMS announces first round of price negotiations for 10 drugs under Inflation Reduction Act, affecting millions of Medicare users and $50B in...

Tina Banerjee

Peptidream (4587 JP): 1Q23 Result- Radiopharma Drove Sales; Losses Narrowed; Guidance Reiterated

Peptidream recorded ¥5B revenue in 1Q23. While base business revenue jumped 133% YoY, acquired radiopharma contributed ¥4B revenue. Compared with...

Tina Banerjee

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

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Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Raises 2023 Sales Guidance Second Time This Year; Buy the Dip

Samsung Bio raised 2023 sales forecast from 15–20% YoY growth to more than 20% YoY increase. Previously, in January, the company expected that this...

Tina Banerjee

Peptidream (4587 JP): Solid Revenue Growth Continued in 1H23; 2023 Guidance Remains Unchanged

In 1H23, revenue jumped 88% YoY, and both the operating and net losses have narrowed compared with 1H22. 2023 guidance calls for a 12% YoY revenue...

Tina Banerjee

10 Drugs To Come Under First Round of Medicare Price Negotiations in US to Curb Inflation

​CMS announces first round of price negotiations for 10 drugs under Inflation Reduction Act, affecting millions of Medicare users and $50B in...

Tina Banerjee

Peptidream (4587 JP): 1Q23 Result- Radiopharma Drove Sales; Losses Narrowed; Guidance Reiterated

Peptidream recorded ¥5B revenue in 1Q23. While base business revenue jumped 133% YoY, acquired radiopharma contributed ¥4B revenue. Compared with...

Tina Banerjee

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

CMS announces first round of price negotiations for 10 drugs under Inflation Reduction Act, affecting millions of Medicare users and $50B in...