Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After 3D Investment Partners bought a large slug of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a> in early 2022, the company started a review of governance and capital allocation. </li>
<li>The company updated investors in August, and bought in 4 listed subs in November-December 2023. The August update suggested a Q1 2024 decision on use/ownership of real estate.</li>
<li>The Final Report is due in a month. In the meantime, the stock rallied Friday off a news article suggesting the Board was reviewing take-private proposals. Yes, but...</li>
</ul>


After 3D Investment Partners bought a large slug of Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) in early 2022, the company started a review of governance and capital allocation. 
The company updated investors in August, and bought in 4 listed subs in November-December 2023. The August update suggested a Q1 2024 decision on use/ownership of real estate.
The Final Report is due in a month. In the meantime, the stock rallied Friday off a news article suggesting the Board was reviewing take-private proposals. Yes, but...


Fuji Soft (9749) - Much Better Governance Process But The Stock Has Run Too Far

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the US$4.0 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>’s shares are down 4.3% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,298 per share (28 November).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Denso’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 13 December. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$4.0 billion secondary placement announcement, Denso Corp (6902 JP)’s shares are down 4.3% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,298 per share (28 November).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Denso’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 13 December. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passives trackers will need to buy 2.4-22.5x ADV (10-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-42.5x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> capping, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> increase in PAF, a big funding trade, and potentially new stocks being added in two-steps. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
Depending on the changes, passives trackers will need to buy 2.4-22.5x ADV (10-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-42.5x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping, Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) increase in PAF, a big funding trade, and potentially new stocks being added in two-steps. 


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> announced a secondary offering of up to 294.8 billion shares (including overallotment) and a buyback (maximum shares of 125 million or maximum value of JPY200 billion).</li>
<li>Denso also announced a cross-holding reduction policy. In an unspecified timeframe, it will sell part of its holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 13 and 18 December (likely 13 December).</li>
</ul>



Denso Corp (6902 JP) announced a secondary offering of up to 294.8 billion shares (including overallotment) and a buyback (maximum shares of 125 million or maximum value of JPY200 billion).
Denso also announced a cross-holding reduction policy. In an unspecified timeframe, it will sell part of its holdings in Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Aisin (7259 JP).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 13 and 18 December (likely 13 December).


Denso (6902 JP): US$4.0 Billion Secondary Offering and US$1.4 Billion Buyback

Asahi Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the US$1.3 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>’s shares are down -6.2% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,804 per share (16 November).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Asahi’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements. </li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 28 November. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$1.3 billion secondary placement announcement, Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)’s shares are down -6.2% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,804 per share (16 November).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Asahi’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements. 
The offering will likely be priced on 28 November. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Asahi Group (2502 JP): The Current Playbook

Japan

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. provides information technology, research, consulting, and analyzing for business strategy decision-making.  The Company also provides application software for system operation services.

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Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)

Fuji Soft (9749) - Much Better Governance Process But The Stock Has Run Too Far

Fuji Soft rallied 9% Friday after reaching a near-all-time high on Thursday. A Nikkei article hinted the Board was considering PE Firms' take...

Travis Lundy

Denso (6902 JP): The Current Playbook

The shares are down 4.3% since announcing the offering, which will likely be priced on 13 December. Investors participating in previous large...

Arun George

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There could be 3 changes at the March rebal. Socionext moves up the add list following the stock split. Fast Retailing is back above 11% index...

Brian Freitas

Denso (6902 JP): US$4.0 Billion Secondary Offering and US$1.4 Billion Buyback

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 13 and 18...

Arun George

Asahi Group (2502 JP): The Current Playbook

The shares are down 6.2% since announcing the offering, which will likely be priced on 28 November. Investors participating in previous large...

Arun George

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