Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Average monthly savings rates and total savings stocks have long been high in Japan, but savings rates broke all records in June 2018.
In one sense, this was a sign that the government's six-year effort to increase wages – and thus consumption and inflation – was finally bearing fruit, albeit small not very sweet fruit.
However, anxiety about the future, coupled with a lack of incentive to spend, meant that most of the increases in wages and bonuses stayed in the bank.
At the same time, while the majority hoarded, brands and retailers at both the luxury and discount ends of the market are reporting a record year, and discount retailers, in particular, are worthy long-term investments.
This demonstrates the further polarisation of the retail market but inventive marketing and solid cost performance will still unlock those wallets in premium mass markets too.

Average monthly savings rates and total savings stocks have long been high in Japan, but savings rates broke all records in June 2018.
In one sense, this was a sign that the government's six-year effort to increase wages – and thus consumption and inflation – was finally bearing fruit, albeit small not very sweet fruit.
However, anxiety about the future, coupled with a lack of incentive to spend, meant that most of the increases in wages and bonuses stayed in the bank.
At the same time, while the majority hoarded, brands and retailers at both the luxury and discount ends of the market are reporting a record year, and discount retailers, in particular, are worthy long-term investments.
This demonstrates the further polarisation of the retail market but inventive marketing and solid cost performance will still unlock those wallets in premium mass markets too.

Japanese Savings Rates Soar in 2018: A Blow to Abe's Plans but a Boon for Discount Retailing

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://discover.decathlon.fr/conception" target="_blank">Decathlon</a> is a category killer sans pareil and will finally open its first store in Japan in March. If Decathlon implements its store roll out well, the French sports retailer will cause a major disruption in Japan's sports market.
Large domestic sports retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13955" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13955:1">Xebio Holdings (8281 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17762" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17762:1">Alpen Co Ltd (3028 JP)</a> will be gearing up to compete in some categories but are far behind in private label development and cost performance, and the major sports brands will have to accelerate their plans for retail stores while reviewing pricing (downwards). Sports firms like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14244" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14244:1">Mizuno (8022 JP)</a>, with relatively low perceived brand value, could face challenges in the newly polarised market that will emerge from Decathlon's entry.
A major source of competition for Decathlon will come from a more unlikely retailer: the uniforms to outdoor apparel/gear firm, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8467" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1">Workman (7564 JP)</a>. While still small, Workman is already manoeuvring to hinder Decathlon's growth in Japan, and looks like having establishment backing to do so – and echoes the growth of Uniqlo after Gap entered the Japanese market in the 1990s and the rise and rise of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20386" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> after IKEA's launch in 2006.
Both Gap and IKEA have relatively small operations in Japan today compared to their early potential. Decathlon will need to expand rapidly if it is to gain sufficient share to stop Workman emerging with a clear lead in its market.

Decathlon is a category killer sans pareil and will finally open its first store in Japan in March. If Decathlon implements its store roll out well, the French sports retailer will cause a major disruption in Japan's sports market.
Large domestic sports retailers like Xebio Holdings (8281 JP) and Alpen Co Ltd (3028 JP) will be gearing up to compete in some categories but are far behind in private label development and cost performance, and the major sports brands will have to accelerate their plans for retail stores while reviewing pricing (downwards). Sports firms like Mizuno (8022 JP), with relatively low perceived brand value, could face challenges in the newly polarised market that will emerge from Decathlon's entry.
A major source of competition for Decathlon will come from a more unlikely retailer: the uniforms to outdoor apparel/gear firm, Workman (7564 JP). While still small, Workman is already manoeuvring to hinder Decathlon's growth in Japan, and looks like having establishment backing to do so – and echoes the growth of Uniqlo after Gap entered the Japanese market in the 1990s and the rise and rise of Nitori (9843 JP) after IKEA's launch in 2006.
Both Gap and IKEA have relatively small operations in Japan today compared to their early potential. Decathlon will need to expand rapidly if it is to gain sufficient share to stop Workman emerging with a clear lead in its market. 

Workman Vs. Decathlon: The Upcoming Battle for Japan's Sports Market

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/363/original/2019-01-11_14-16-49.png?1547292773" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75363"></figure>

Source: Japan Analytics</div>
CURRENCY DRIVER - The ¥/US$ cross rate has strengthened by 5.3% since the recent US$ peak of ¥114.20 on November 12th 2018, which has led some FX and technical specialists (including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/381" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381">Thomas Schroeder </a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dollar-yen-big-short-phase-ii" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27163">here</a> on Smartkarma) to call for a more sustained bout of US$ weakness. A period of Yen strength is far from a consensus forecast for most Japanese equity investors, and historically a stronger Yen has resulted in a weaker Japanese equity market. The three Yen 'peaks' highlighted by the vertical lines in the chart above all coincided with medium-term lows in TOPIX.  
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/287/original/2019-01-11_14-44-07.png?1547185462" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75287"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
¥ &lt; 100 - If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when the USDJPY cross has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975, which would imply 36% downside for Japanese equities were the Yen to rise above ¥90. Nevertheless, the three Yen peaks we have isolated have proved to be excellent entry points with the subsequent trough-to-peak performance being 28% in 1995~1996, 108% in 2011~2015 and 48% in 2016~2018. Long-term Japan 'bulls' should welcome the coming US dollar bear market. 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/313/original/2019-01-12_10-50-14.png?1547257825" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75313"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
EARNINGS DRIVER - The USDJPY cross remains an important driver of earnings and earnings momentum in Japan. As measured by our Results and Revision Scores, there is a good correlation between the trends in both scores and the year-on-year change in USDJPY lagged by six months, especially around significant turning points for the cross rate (marked by the vertical lines). The Results and Revision Scores have declined since January 2018 in line with the stronger Yen. A move up to above the ¥90 level would, without doubt, take both scores into negative territory again- the only question being, are we replaying 2009/10 or 2016/17? 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/319/original/2019-01-12_13-40-19.png?1547268030" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75319"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
CURRENCY CORRELATIONS - In the DETAIL below, we list the larger capitalisation companies whose share price performance most closely correlated with the dollar-yen cross rate. As a preview, the most correlated larger capitalisation company that has been listed since 2006 is, unsurprisingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/318/original/2019-01-12_13-15-40.png?1547266553" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75318"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT - We also go one step further and use the 'Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment' that forms part of Other Comprehensive Income (which has been disclosed in corporate balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively) to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight after adding two-month lag for the reporting cycle. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored.




Source: Japan Analytics
CURRENCY DRIVER - The ¥/US$ cross rate has strengthened by 5.3% since the recent US$ peak of ¥114.20 on November 12th 2018, which has led some FX and technical specialists (including Thomas Schroeder  here on Smartkarma) to call for a more sustained bout of US$ weakness. A period of Yen strength is far from a consensus forecast for most Japanese equity investors, and historically a stronger Yen has resulted in a weaker Japanese equity market. The three Yen 'peaks' highlighted by the vertical lines in the chart above all coincided with medium-term lows in TOPIX.  

Source: Japan Analytics
¥ &lt; 100 - If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when the USDJPY cross has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975, which would imply 36% downside for Japanese equities were the Yen to rise above ¥90. Nevertheless, the three Yen peaks we have isolated have proved to be excellent entry points with the subsequent trough-to-peak performance being 28% in 1995~1996, 108% in 2011~2015 and 48% in 2016~2018. Long-term Japan 'bulls' should welcome the coming US dollar bear market. 

Source: Japan Analytics
EARNINGS DRIVER - The USDJPY cross remains an important driver of earnings and earnings momentum in Japan. As measured by our Results and Revision Scores, there is a good correlation between the trends in both scores and the year-on-year change in USDJPY lagged by six months, especially around significant turning points for the cross rate (marked by the vertical lines). The Results and Revision Scores have declined since January 2018 in line with the stronger Yen. A move up to above the ¥90 level would, without doubt, take both scores into negative territory again- the only question being, are we replaying 2009/10 or 2016/17? 

Source: Japan Analytics
CURRENCY CORRELATIONS - In the DETAIL below, we list the larger capitalisation companies whose share price performance most closely correlated with the dollar-yen cross rate. As a preview, the most correlated larger capitalisation company that has been listed since 2006 is, unsurprisingly, Toyota Motor (7203 JP).

Source: Japan Analytics
THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT - We also go one step further and use the 'Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment' that forms part of Other Comprehensive Income (which has been disclosed in corporate balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively) to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight after adding two-month lag for the reporting cycle. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored.

Japan: What to Buy & Sell if the ¥ Rises to 90

IKEA Japan is following its parent company’s international strategy of opening smaller stores and expanding e-commerce. The first small store in Japan is now confirmed and will open in a high profile location in Harajuku.
With the correct design and positioning, it should help IKEA Japan back onto a higher growth path, and give <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20386" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> some competition at last – if only a little.

IKEA Japan is following its parent company’s international strategy of opening smaller stores and expanding e-commerce. The first small store in Japan is now confirmed and will open in a high profile location in Harajuku.
With the correct design and positioning, it should help IKEA Japan back onto a higher growth path, and give Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) some competition at last – if only a little.

IKEA: Small Store Rollout in Japan to Start in 2020

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ SOUTH KOREA: Strategic downgrade on Kospi from overweight to neutral ( Note that Kospi has broken key support at 270 as well.) ⦁ JAPAN: Nikkei 225 long term outperformance in progress. ⦁ HONG KONG: HSI strategic view remains "Neutral" due to mixed elements. ⦁ CHINA: HSCEI strategic view remains "Neutral", awaiting elements/signals. ⦁ AUSTRALIA: ASX 200 outperformance still valid. ⦁ TAIWAN: TWSE/MXAP in sideways/range. Neutral at the moment. ⦁ INDIA: NIFTY/MXAP shows mixed elements. Neutral India for now. Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ Downgrade Korea (KOSPI 200), Taiwan (TWSE) from “Hold” to “Decrease Exposure” as respective Ratios vs MXAP are below tactical resistances. ⦁ Maintain “Increase Exposure” for Japan (Nikkei), Australia (ASX) and still a “Hold” for Hong Kong (HSI), China (HSCEI) and India (Nifty).

THE MAIN IDEA (Relative Value Approach in USD Terms) Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ SOUTH KOREA: Strategic downgrade on Kospi from overweight to neutral ( Note that Kospi has broken key support at 270 as well.) ⦁ JAPAN: Nikkei 225 long term outperformance in progress. ⦁ HONG KONG: HSI strategic view remains "Neutral" due to mixed elements. ⦁ CHINA: HSCEI strategic view remains "Neutral", awaiting elements/signals. ⦁ AUSTRALIA: ASX 200 outperformance still valid. ⦁ TAIWAN: TWSE/MXAP in sideways/range. Neutral at the moment. ⦁ INDIA: NIFTY/MXAP shows mixed elements. Neutral India for now. Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms ⦁ Downgrade Korea (KOSPI 200), Taiwan (TWSE) from “Hold” to “Decrease Exposure” as respective Ratios vs MXAP are below tactical resistances. ⦁ Maintain “Increase Exposure” for Japan (Nikkei), Australia (ASX) and still a “Hold” for Hong Kong (HSI), China (HSCEI) and India (Nifty).

Japan

Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd., is based in Hokkaido and operates a furniture retail chain.  The Company sells living room furniture, storage furniture, dining furniture, office furniture, beds, and interior goods.  Nitori Holdings also sells original brand merchandise and imported merchandise.

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Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)

Japanese Savings Rates Soar in 2018: A Blow to Abe's Plans but a Boon for Discount Retailing

Average monthly savings rates and total savings stocks have long been high in Japan, but savings rates broke all records in June 2018. In one...

Michael Causton

Workman Vs. Decathlon: The Upcoming Battle for Japan's Sports Market

Decathlon is a category killer sans pareil and will finally open its first store in Japan in March. If Decathlon implements its store roll out...

Michael Causton

Japan: What to Buy & Sell if the ¥ Rises to 90

CURRENCY DRIVER - The ¥/US$ cross rate has strengthened by 5.3% since the recent US$ peak of ¥114.20 on November 12th 2018, which has led some FX...

Campbell Gunn

IKEA: Small Store Rollout in Japan to Start in 2020

IKEA Japan is following its parent company’s international strategy of opening smaller stores and expanding e-commerce. The first small store in...

Michael Causton

BBSP Asia Weekly Equity Book

THE MAIN IDEA(Relative Value Approach in USD Terms)Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms⦁ SOUTH KOREA:...

BBSP Asia

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