Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda (7267 JP) </a> announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>'s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. </li>
<li>Murakami-San has started selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>, earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.</li>
</ul>



Honda (7267 JP)  announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)'s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. 
Murakami-San has started selling Exedy Corp (7278 JP), earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

<ul>
<li>Today, along with the announcement of Memorandum of Understanding between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> to work towards negotiating a Joint Holding Company by June 2025... </li>
<li>Honda cancelled their existing ¥100bn buyback, and initiated a truly mammoth NEW Buyback - up to 1.1 billion shares (23.7% of TSO), spending up to ¥1.1trln on market through Dec-2025.</li>
<li>Assuming the stock pops, it is probably "only" worth 15-18%, but that's still a LOT. At that rate it boosts BVPS by 8+% on its own, and EPS by 17%.</li>
</ul>


Today, along with the announcement of Memorandum of Understanding between Honda Motor (7267 JP), and Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to work towards negotiating a Joint Holding Company by June 2025... 
Honda cancelled their existing ¥100bn buyback, and initiated a truly mammoth NEW Buyback - up to 1.1 billion shares (23.7% of TSO), spending up to ¥1.1trln on market through Dec-2025.
Assuming the stock pops, it is probably "only" worth 15-18%, but that's still a LOT. At that rate it boosts BVPS by 8+% on its own, and EPS by 17%.


Honda (7267 JP) - MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rapidus vs. TSMC: Can Japan's Newcomer Compete in the 2nm Race?</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech </li>
<li>Hon Hai Pauses Nissan Pursuit Amid Honda Talks -- A Japanese Savior for Nissan is Likely But This Confirms Hon Hai's EV Ambitions Remain High</li>
</ul>


Rapidus vs. TSMC: Can Japan's Newcomer Compete in the 2nm Race?
Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech 
Hon Hai Pauses Nissan Pursuit Amid Honda Talks -- A Japanese Savior for Nissan is Likely But This Confirms Hon Hai's EV Ambitions Remain High


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus's Challenge Vs. TSMC for 2nm; Hon Hai Hunting for Automaker Acquisition

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>A potential merger between Nissan Motor and Honda Motor would create the third largest auto group in the world.</li>
<li>If this merger is successful, it could have a short term positive impact on Hyundai Motor since it could result in a reduction of overlapping sales/marketing and production of Nissan.</li>
<li>However, a merger of Honda and Nissan could negatively impact Hyundai Motor over the long term because the merged entity could produce more high quality, price competitive vehicles.</li>
</ul>


A potential merger between Nissan Motor and Honda Motor would create the third largest auto group in the world.
If this merger is successful, it could have a short term positive impact on Hyundai Motor since it could result in a reduction of overlapping sales/marketing and production of Nissan.
However, a merger of Honda and Nissan could negatively impact Hyundai Motor over the long term because the merged entity could produce more high quality, price competitive vehicles.


A Potential Merger Between Honda and Nissan - Impact on Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp

Japan

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

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Nissan Motor (ADR) (NSANY US)

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Honda (7267 JP) - MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback

On the same day that Honda, Nissan, and Mit Motors announce plans to look at joining under a holdco, in Q3 2026, Honda announces a massive new...

Travis Lundy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus's Challenge Vs. TSMC for 2nm; Hon Hai Hunting for Automaker Acquisition

Japan's newcomer Rapidus challenges TSMC in the 2nm race; Hon Hai's pursuit of Nissan pauses due to Nissan-Honda talks, but signals Hon Hai's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

A Potential Merger Between Honda and Nissan - Impact on Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp

In this insight, we discuss the impact of a potential merger between Nissan Motor and Honda Motor which would create one of the largest auto groups...

Douglas Kim

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JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Honda (7267 JP) - MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback

On the same day that Honda, Nissan, and Mit Motors announce plans to look at joining under a holdco, in Q3 2026, Honda announces a massive new...

Travis Lundy

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus's Challenge Vs. TSMC for 2nm; Hon Hai Hunting for Automaker Acquisition

​Japan's newcomer Rapidus challenges TSMC in the 2nm race; Hon Hai's pursuit of Nissan pauses due to Nissan-Honda talks, but signals Hon Hai's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

A Potential Merger Between Honda and Nissan - Impact on Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp

In this insight, we discuss the impact of a potential merger between Nissan Motor and Honda Motor which would create one of the largest auto groups...

Douglas Kim

Japan's newcomer Rapidus challenges TSMC in the 2nm race; Hon Hai's pursuit of Nissan pauses due to Nissan-Honda talks, but signals Hon Hai's...