Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

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July container volumes in key markets showed a strong improvement compared to momentum in the first half of the year. Rates appeared to firm, but only compared to weak May-June numbers.
Q2 earnings results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ap-moeller-maersk-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22428:1" rel="noopener">AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a> showed a dramatic YoY improvement in core shipping profitability, driven almost wholly by a reduction in fuel costs. These gains are likely to moderate in H2.
Container names Maersk and Evergreen are representative of the industry and their shares have recovered 75% and 67% since the trough in March this year. Both shares have surpassed 100% of stated book value, and we now believe further significant gains will be harder to come by.


July container volumes in key markets showed a strong improvement compared to momentum in the first half of the year. Rates appeared to firm, but only compared to weak May-June numbers.
Q2 earnings results from AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC) and Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT) showed a dramatic YoY improvement in core shipping profitability, driven almost wholly by a reduction in fuel costs. These gains are likely to moderate in H2.
Container names Maersk and Evergreen are representative of the industry and their shares have recovered 75% and 67% since the trough in March this year. Both shares have surpassed 100% of stated book value, and we now believe further significant gains will be harder to come by. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: July Volume & Rates Better | Q2 Profits Soar on Costs

Earlier this week <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a> posted the company's best quarterly results in years, with Operating Profit improving over 300% YoY and Net Profit turning from a small loss in 2019 to a tidy profit this year. We believe lower fuel prices accounted for around 3/4 of the YoY improvement in Evergreen's gross profit in Q2. The company also likely benefited from slightly higher average freight rates. Revenue in the period actually declined by 7% YoY due to lower freight volume. Improved capacity discipline by many carriers combined with a modest improvement in demand since Q1 should allow Evergreen to remain profitable in the latter half of 2020. However, the most dramatic YoY gains related to lower fuel costs are likely behind us already. Evergreen's shares are up ~45% from the trough in Q1 during the peak of the pandemic, but they still trade at only about 0.80x stated book value. We believe there is a good chance Evergreen issues a cash dividend paid from 2020 earnings, likely in the NT$0.20-0.30 per share range.

Earlier this week Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT) posted the company's best quarterly results in years, with Operating Profit improving over 300% YoY and Net Profit turning from a small loss in 2019 to a tidy profit this year. We believe lower fuel prices accounted for around 3/4 of the YoY improvement in Evergreen's gross profit in Q2. The company also likely benefited from slightly higher average freight rates. Revenue in the period actually declined by 7% YoY due to lower freight volume. Improved capacity discipline by many carriers combined with a modest improvement in demand since Q1 should allow Evergreen to remain profitable in the latter half of 2020. However, the most dramatic YoY gains related to lower fuel costs are likely behind us already. Evergreen's shares are up ~45% from the trough in Q1 during the peak of the pandemic, but they still trade at only about 0.80x stated book value. We believe there is a good chance Evergreen issues a cash dividend paid from 2020 earnings, likely in the NT$0.20-0.30 per share range.

Evergreen Marine (2603:TT) Posts Best Quarterly Earnings in Years, Mainly on Lower Fuel Costs

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

Time to remove the upper market cap limit as risk increases.<ul>
<li>
Our screen from this quarter onwards is for all stocks<a href="applewebdata://17FB2464-550F-48C5-BBBA-E248B1412D29#_ftn1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">[1]</a> above a market capitalisation of US$500m as we now encounter possibly one of the riskier periods in our market history. With this in mind, we have removed our Small-Mid Cap focus (US$500m-US$10bn market capitalisation) from our screens. </li>
<li>
21 stocks appear in our Q3 2020 screen. The average stock rank in our list has maintained a ranking of 63.5 points compared to 68 in Q2 2020 placing the stocks lower in the second quartile of the market, suggesting deteriorating fundamentals and a strong possibility of lagging performance.</li>
<li>
As we highlighted in Q1, watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics over 2020: In Q3, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.44 times, versus 1.31 in Q2. Whilst marginally improved, since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and there is limited visibility of their bottoming, the potential for a lower Z score in Q4 2020 and H1 2021is increased.</li>
</ul>

Time to remove the upper market cap limit as risk increases.

Our screen from this quarter onwards is for all stocks[1] above a market capitalisation of US$500m as we now encounter possibly one of the riskier periods in our market history. With this in mind, we have removed our Small-Mid Cap focus (US$500m-US$10bn market capitalisation) from our screens. 

21 stocks appear in our Q3 2020 screen. The average stock rank in our list has maintained a ranking of 63.5 points compared to 68 in Q2 2020 placing the stocks lower in the second quartile of the market, suggesting deteriorating fundamentals and a strong possibility of lagging performance.

As we highlighted in Q1, watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics over 2020: In Q3, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.44 times, versus 1.31 in Q2. Whilst marginally improved, since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and there is limited visibility of their bottoming, the potential for a lower Z score in Q4 2020 and H1 2021is increased.


Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2020 High Risk Names to Avoid

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Contrary to recent media reports, there is no evidence in the June numbers of an alleged spike in container rates in the Pacific. In fact, our monthly index suggests average rates achieved by carriers declined again in June. 
Having said that, it does appear that container shipping activity in China and on the North American West Coast is beginning to normalize. Both areas showed improved activity in June. 
Elsewhere, Asian air cargo pricing is beginning to moderate, too, but yields for some carriers are still almost double what they were a year ago. However, strong air cargo results won't do much to offset disastrous passenger operations for many carriers. 
Conclusion: Cargo flows across the Pacific have begun to normalize after the severe disruptions caused by Covid19. But we do not envision a 'snap-back' demand scenario in which ocean and air carriers suddenly begin earning outsized returns.


Contrary to recent media reports, there is no evidence in the June numbers of an alleged spike in container rates in the Pacific. In fact, our monthly index suggests average rates achieved by carriers declined again in June. 
Having said that, it does appear that container shipping activity in China and on the North American West Coast is beginning to normalize. Both areas showed improved activity in June. 
Elsewhere, Asian air cargo pricing is beginning to moderate, too, but yields for some carriers are still almost double what they were a year ago. However, strong air cargo results won't do much to offset disastrous passenger operations for many carriers. 
Conclusion: Cargo flows across the Pacific have begun to normalize after the severe disruptions caused by Covid19. But we do not envision a 'snap-back' demand scenario in which ocean and air carriers suddenly begin earning outsized returns. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: No, Virginia, Container Rates Are NOT Spiking!

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/997/original/2020-06-15_11-08-56.png?1592186965" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139997"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the second in our Japan Stress Test series in which we endeavour to assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-stress-tests-part-1-altman-z-scores" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40180" rel="noopener">Part 1</a> looked at the time-worn Altman-Z Score for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies. In Part 2 will we turn our attention to the cash flow statement starting with the 'lifeblood' of all businesses - Operating Cash Flow.
ACCRUAL ACCOUNTING - Despite the sacrosanctity in some quarters of discounted cash flow analysis, for valuation purposes, our preference is to use accrual accounting. As Professor Stephen Penman states, "Accrual accounting brings the future forward in time and anticipates future cash flows."  Nevertheless, cash flow accounting, and the level of accounting accruals, can provide early insights into periodic stress. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)'s</a> Accruals (Operating Income less Operating Cash Flow) as a percentage of period-end market capitalisation correlate with the company's Relative Price Score over the last thirty years. Further Insights in this series will continue to 'mine'  the Cash Flow statement by exploring Financing Cash Flows and the Working Capital Cycle.
REFORMULATED CASH FLOWSTATEMENTS - Our Operating Cash Flow calculation is derived from each company's Balance Sheet and Income Statement for periods of up to twenty-eight years. Cash Flow items relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flow and Investing Cash Flow, which includes Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Cash flows relating to financing activities are divided into Financing Cash Flow and Shareholder Cash Flow. The reformulated Balance Sheets, Income and Cash Flow Statements follow a clean-surplus relationship. All three Statements are fully articulated to include items of Other Comprehensive Income which are added to or subtracted from Shareholders' Equity. 
</div>UNIVERSE - The universe for this Insight comprises the 614 Japanese companies with a market capitalisation excluding Treasury Stock over ¥100 million and for which we have at least two years of cash flow data.  Five non-financial companies, which have significant financial subsidiaries (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>), have been excluded from this analysis.


Source: Japan Analytics
STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the second in our Japan Stress Test series in which we endeavour to assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. Part 1 looked at the time-worn Altman-Z Score for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies. In Part 2 will we turn our attention to the cash flow statement starting with the 'lifeblood' of all businesses - Operating Cash Flow.
ACCRUAL ACCOUNTING - Despite the sacrosanctity in some quarters of discounted cash flow analysis, for valuation purposes, our preference is to use accrual accounting. As Professor Stephen Penman states, "Accrual accounting brings the future forward in time and anticipates future cash flows."  Nevertheless, cash flow accounting, and the level of accounting accruals, can provide early insights into periodic stress. Nissan Motor (7201 JP)'s Accruals (Operating Income less Operating Cash Flow) as a percentage of period-end market capitalisation correlate with the company's Relative Price Score over the last thirty years. Further Insights in this series will continue to 'mine'  the Cash Flow statement by exploring Financing Cash Flows and the Working Capital Cycle.
REFORMULATED CASH FLOWSTATEMENTS - Our Operating Cash Flow calculation is derived from each company's Balance Sheet and Income Statement for periods of up to twenty-eight years. Cash Flow items relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flow and Investing Cash Flow, which includes Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Cash flows relating to financing activities are divided into Financing Cash Flow and Shareholder Cash Flow. The reformulated Balance Sheets, Income and Cash Flow Statements follow a clean-surplus relationship. All three Statements are fully articulated to include items of Other Comprehensive Income which are added to or subtracted from Shareholders' Equity. 
UNIVERSE - The universe for this Insight comprises the 614 Japanese companies with a market capitalisation excluding Treasury Stock over ¥100 million and for which we have at least two years of cash flow data.  Five non-financial companies, which have significant financial subsidiaries (Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)), have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 2 - Operating Cash Flow & Accruals

Japan

Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha mainly provides marine transportation services and transportation management solution from international hub ports to both domestic and international ports. The Company operates container transportation, tramp and specialized carriers, and logistics and cruise lines. Nippon Yusen offers scheduled and unscheduled transportation services around the world.

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Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: July Volume & Rates Better | Q2 Profits Soar on Costs

July container volumes in key markets showed a strong improvement compared to momentum in the first half of the year. Rates appeared to firm, but...

Tracking Traffic

Evergreen Marine (2603:TT) Posts Best Quarterly Earnings in Years, Mainly on Lower Fuel Costs

Earlier this week Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT) posted the company's best quarterly results in years, with Operating Profit improving over 300%...

Tracking Traffic

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2020 High Risk Names to Avoid

Time to remove the upper market cap limit as risk increases. Our screen from this quarter onwards is for all stocks[1] above a market...

David Lepper

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Containers & Air Cargo: No, Virginia, Container Rates Are NOT Spiking!

Contrary to recent media reports, there is no evidence in the June numbers of an alleged spike in container rates in the Pacific. In fact, our...

Tracking Traffic

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 2 - Operating Cash Flow & Accruals

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the second in our Japan Stress Test series in which we endeavour to assess where business risk is concentrated...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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