ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

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This week's offering of Insights across <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section.
The highlights this week include some very interesting comments from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1628" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1628">Dr Jim Walker</a> on the benefits of a higher savings rate in Vietnam, comments from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a>on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23011" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23011:1">Doubledragon Properties (DD PM)</a> after some very convincing numbers from the company. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/12" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12">Daniel Tabbush</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1">DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)</a> and suggests not to be complacent and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1005" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1005">Howard J Klein</a> writes on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/439" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1">Genting Singapore (GENS SP)</a>after the announcement of a US$9bn investment between themselves and LVS in Singapore's integrated resorts. I also include in the detailed section some on the ground feedback from a trip to Jakarta last week post-election on politics, the economy, property, and visits to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15659" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk P (AMRT IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/428" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:428:1">Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ)</a>.  
</div><h2>Macro Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vietnam-savings-and-the-nature-of-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29341">Vietnam: Savings and the Nature of Growth</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1628" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1628">Dr Jim Walker</a> addresses the benefits of rising savings and the nature of growth in Vietnam.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vietnam-s-big-investment-secret-foreign-inflows-surge" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29453">Vietnam’s Big Investment Secret: Foreign Inflows Surge</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2312" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2312">Michael J. Howell</a> examines the strong cross border flows into Vietnam. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-mas-to-stay-on-hold-in-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29387">Singapore MAS - To Stay On Hold In 2019</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1728" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1728">Sharmila Whelan</a> circles back to Singapore, an equity market where they are underweight. She would expect the MAS to maintain its current exchange rate policy stance through 2019 and would not be surprised to see a further loosening of property market austerity measures. <h2>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h2><div class="content-highlight">In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/doubledragon-properties-dd-pm-fy18-results-show-earnings-potential-re-rating-to-accelerate" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29275">DoubleDragon Properties (DD PM): FY18 Results Show Earnings Potential; Re-Rating To Accelerate</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23011" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23011:1">Doubledragon Properties (DD PM)</a> after a set of results that confirm the thesis articulated in his and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1763" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1763">Lloyd Moffatt</a>'sSmartkarma Originals Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/doubledragon-properties-dd-pm-from-overhyped-to-undervalued-multi-bagger-in-the-making" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28127">DoubleDragon Properties (DD PM): From Overhyped to Undervalued; Multi-Bagger in the Making?</a>.</div>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/agm-jardine-cycle-carriage-jcnc-sp-cars-cows-and-cement-high-gearing-likely-rights-issue" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29413">AGM Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP): Cars, Cows and Cement; High Gearing = Likely Rights Issue</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> provides an interesting round-up after attending the company's AGM. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/agm-breadtalk-8-npm-target-by-fy20-is-a-must-din-tai-fung-in-london-showing-very-strong-sales" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29315">AGM Breadtalk: "8% NPM Target by FY20 Is a Must"; Din Tai Fung in London Showing "Very Strong Sales"</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits this breadmaker and restaurant operators where he suggests value has re-emerged.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/agm-breadtalk-8-npm-target-by-fy20-is-a-must-din-tai-fung-in-london-showing-very-strong-sales" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29315"></a>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/reality-check-xviii-how-much-mojo-can-true-derive-from-true-ryde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28947">Reality Check XVIII: How Much Mojo Can True Derive From True Ryde?</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a>  looks at True Corp's new ride payment app True Ryde and tries to imagine how positive it could be to the stock's prospects going forward if it eventually develops into ride-hailing. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dbs-most-profit-growth-is-less-credit-costs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29474">DBS – Most Profit Growth Is Less Credit Costs</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/12" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12">Daniel Tabbush</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1">DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)</a>, where he remains cautious post 1Q19 results. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/krungthai-card-performing-in-all-line-items" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29405">Krungthai Card - Performing in All Line Items</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/12" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12">Daniel Tabbush</a> revisits one of his favourite finance companies in Thailand. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trade-idea-first-pacific-142-hk-stub-assets-sales-pave-the-way-to-a-narrower-discount-to-nav" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29280">TRADE IDEA - First Pacific (142 HK) Stub: Assets Sales Pave the Way to a Narrower Discount to NAV</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/840" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840">David Blennerhassett</a> revisits this Hong Kong-listed predominantly South East Asian Conglomerate.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/stubworld-ai-ya-ayala-corp-tanking-on-possible-portfolio-rebalancing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29356">StubWorld: Ai Ya! - Ayala Corp Tanking On Possible "Portfolio Rebalancing"</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/840" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840">David Blennerhassett</a> seeks to shed light on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1474" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1474:1">Ayala Corporation (AC PM)</a> 's recent correction. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/suntec-reit-placement-might-be-worth-a-look-at-the-low-end" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29382">Suntec REIT Placement - Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4">Sumeet Singh</a> takes a look at this Singapore listed REIT following the announcement that it will raise capital. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/suntec-reit-placement-for-a-sensible-cause" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29392">Suntec REIT Placement: For a Sensible Cause</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1680" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1680">Arun George</a> also looks at the recent capital raising plans by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/151" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:151:1">Suntec REIT (SUN SP)</a>. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/market-response-to-s9bn-gaming-expansion-perplexes-more-than-it-reveals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29361">Market Response to S9bn Gaming Expansion Perplexes More than It Reveals</a>, gaming specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1005" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1005">Howard J Klein</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/439" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1">Genting Singapore (GENS SP)</a> following the news that it and LVS will embark on a US$9bn expansion program of their integrated resorts in Singapore. He is somewhat perplexed by the market reaction in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/439" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1">Genting Singapore (GENS SP)</a>. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bch-private-chain-hospital-with-high-sustainable-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29434">BCH: Private Chain Hospital with High Sustainable Growth</a>, our friend at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/965" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965">Country Group</a> initiate coverage on BCH with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt21, which is derived from a DCF methodology (WACC 6.8% and terminal growth 0%), implying 43.8x PE’19E, a a 19% premium to the Thai Health Care sector.<h2>Sector and Thematic Insights</h2>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/snippets-22-new-transit-ad-giant-duty-free-rivalry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29124">Snippets #22: New Transit Ad Giant, Duty-Free Rivalry</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> comments on important potential breaking news and developments which may provide catalysts for companies in Thailand.


This week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section.
The highlights this week include some very interesting comments from Dr Jim Walker on the benefits of a higher savings rate in Vietnam, comments from Nicolas Van Broekhovenon Doubledragon Properties (DD PM) after some very convincing numbers from the company. Daniel Tabbush comments on DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP) and suggests not to be complacent and Howard J Klein writes on Genting Singapore (GENS SP)after the announcement of a US$9bn investment between themselves and LVS in Singapore's integrated resorts. I also include in the detailed section some on the ground feedback from a trip to Jakarta last week post-election on politics, the economy, property, and visits to Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk P (AMRT IJ) and Puradelta Lestari (DMAS IJ).  
Macro InsightsIn Vietnam: Savings and the Nature of Growth, Dr Jim Walker addresses the benefits of rising savings and the nature of growth in Vietnam.In Vietnam’s Big Investment Secret: Foreign Inflows Surge, Michael J. Howell examines the strong cross border flows into Vietnam. In Singapore MAS - To Stay On Hold In 2019, Sharmila Whelan circles back to Singapore, an equity market where they are underweight. She would expect the MAS to maintain its current exchange rate policy stance through 2019 and would not be surprised to see a further loosening of property market austerity measures. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn DoubleDragon Properties (DD PM): FY18 Results Show Earnings Potential; Re-Rating To Accelerate,Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Doubledragon Properties (DD PM) after a set of results that confirm the thesis articulated in his and Lloyd Moffatt'sSmartkarma Originals Insight, DoubleDragon Properties (DD PM): From Overhyped to Undervalued; Multi-Bagger in the Making?.In AGM Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP): Cars, Cows and Cement; High Gearing = Likely Rights Issue, Nicolas Van Broekhoven provides an interesting round-up after attending the company's AGM. In AGM Breadtalk: "8% NPM Target by FY20 Is a Must"; Din Tai Fung in London Showing "Very Strong Sales", Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits this breadmaker and restaurant operators where he suggests value has re-emerged.  In Reality Check XVIII: How Much Mojo Can True Derive From True Ryde?, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA  looks at True Corp's new ride payment app True Ryde and tries to imagine how positive it could be to the stock's prospects going forward if it eventually develops into ride-hailing. In DBS – Most Profit Growth Is Less Credit Costs, Daniel Tabbush circles back to DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP), where he remains cautious post 1Q19 results. In Krungthai Card - Performing in All Line Items, Daniel Tabbush revisits one of his favourite finance companies in Thailand. In TRADE IDEA - First Pacific (142 HK) Stub: Assets Sales Pave the Way to a Narrower Discount to NAV, David Blennerhassett revisits this Hong Kong-listed predominantly South East Asian Conglomerate.  In StubWorld: Ai Ya! - Ayala Corp Tanking On Possible "Portfolio Rebalancing"David Blennerhassett seeks to shed light on Ayala Corporation (AC PM) 's recent correction. In Suntec REIT Placement - Might Be Worth a Look at the Low-End, Sumeet Singh takes a look at this Singapore listed REIT following the announcement that it will raise capital. In Suntec REIT Placement: For a Sensible Cause, Arun George also looks at the recent capital raising plans by Suntec REIT (SUN SP). In Market Response to S9bn Gaming Expansion Perplexes More than It Reveals, gaming specialist Howard J Klein revisits Genting Singapore (GENS SP) following the news that it and LVS will embark on a US$9bn expansion program of their integrated resorts in Singapore. He is somewhat perplexed by the market reaction in the case of Genting Singapore (GENS SP). In BCH: Private Chain Hospital with High Sustainable Growth, our friend at Country Group initiate coverage on BCH with a BUY rating, based on a target price of Bt21, which is derived from a DCF methodology (WACC 6.8% and terminal growth 0%), implying 43.8x PE’19E, a a 19% premium to the Thai Health Care sector.Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Snippets #22: New Transit Ad Giant, Duty-Free Rivalry, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA comments on important potential breaking news and developments which may provide catalysts for companies in Thailand.  

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Vietnam's Savings, Double Dragon, and Singapore Gaming

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Bottom-Up

Five interesting news flow/development during this period:<ul>
<li>
New regulations proposals. The BOT recently discussed measures to rein in overly favorable leasing promotions, while the NBTC backs down from plans to impose surcharge on Facebook and LINE.</li>
<li>
Biggest deal in advertising. Though only a minority stake, VGI's investment in Plan B is arguably the largest one done in the media sector in years. The web of media enmeshed is arguably one of the largest outside broadcast media now.</li>
<li>
Breadtalk agrees to buy 15% of Thai-listed NPPG, a holding company for packaging and restaurant chains. A relatively small deal, but one that ties NPPG indirectly to the much bigger Thai giant Minor.</li>
<li>
Makro expands with an impressive Bt8.5bn. The budget includes potentially 10 new stores with two outside Thailand. An interesting spin for the CP All subsidiary essentially written off as 'ex-growth' by most of the Street.</li>
<li>
The new Duty Free wars. Four groups, namely incumbent King Power, Central, Minor, and The Mall, join the fray to dominate Thailand's Duty Free business for the next decade. We hope Minor wins, but most likely, it's going to be Central.</li>
</ul>

Five interesting news flow/development during this period:

New regulations proposals. The BOT recently discussed measures to rein in overly favorable leasing promotions, while the NBTC backs down from plans to impose surcharge on Facebook and LINE.

Biggest deal in advertising. Though only a minority stake, VGI's investment in Plan B is arguably the largest one done in the media sector in years. The web of media enmeshed is arguably one of the largest outside broadcast media now.

Breadtalk agrees to buy 15% of Thai-listed NPPG, a holding company for packaging and restaurant chains. A relatively small deal, but one that ties NPPG indirectly to the much bigger Thai giant Minor.

Makro expands with an impressive Bt8.5bn. The budget includes potentially 10 new stores with two outside Thailand. An interesting spin for the CP All subsidiary essentially written off as 'ex-growth' by most of the Street.

The new Duty Free wars. Four groups, namely incumbent King Power, Central, Minor, and The Mall, join the fray to dominate Thailand's Duty Free business for the next decade. We hope Minor wins, but most likely, it's going to be Central.


Snippets #22: New Transit Ad Giant, Duty Free Rivalry

Thailand

Global Consumer Public Company Limited produces packaging products including bottles, plastic wrappers, and containers for use by beverage and food producers.

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Nippon Pack (Thailand) (NPP TB)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Vietnam's Savings, Double Dragon, and Singapore Gaming

This week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable...

Angus Mackintosh

Snippets #22: New Transit Ad Giant, Duty Free Rivalry

Five interesting news flow/development during this period: New regulations proposals. The BOT recently discussed measures to rein in overly...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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