China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>In the past few months, China's Startup EV brands have been ramping up quickly.  BYD showed marketshare gains in September thanks to newly launched Model Han. However, Tesla might put new pressure on their up trend very soon. </strong></p><p><strong>Local produced Model Y might be launched in November at the earliest, which might put huge pressure on NIO (NIO.US) and Li Auto's (LI.US) sales in short term. </strong></p><p><strong>Model 3 sales price has been cut again and getting close to its Chinese competitor models. BYD Han might be under pressure. However, Xpeng (XPEV.US), who's P7 is directly competing with Model 3, has shown  capability of overcoming Model's price cut pressure. </strong></p><p><strong>We believe XPEV is better positioned to overcome new threats from Tesla in near term.</strong></p><p><strong> </strong></p>

In the past few months, China's Startup EV brands have been ramping up quickly.  BYD showed marketshare gains in September thanks to newly launched Model Han. However, Tesla might put new pressure on their up trend very soon. Local produced Model Y might be launched in November at the earliest, which might put huge pressure on NIO (NIO.US) and Li Auto's (LI.US) sales in short term. Model 3 sales price has been cut again and getting close to its Chinese competitor models. BYD Han might be under pressure. However, Xpeng (XPEV.US), who's P7 is directly competing with Model 3, has shown  capability of overcoming Model's price cut pressure. We believe XPEV is better positioned to overcome new threats from Tesla in near term. 

China EV:  New Threats from Tesla Coming, Prefer XPEV

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

<div>With only 40+ days left before the Presidential Election in the U.S, China is wisely taking a laissez faire approach to the bilateral issues and conflicts, waiting Trump out until after November. However, Beijing understands the White House’s targeting at China enjoys bipartisan support at this moment, one of the few exceptions of today’s politics in the U.S.</div>

With only 40+ days left before the Presidential Election in the U.S, China is wisely taking a laissez faire approach to the bilateral issues and conflicts, waiting Trump out until after November. However, Beijing understands the White House’s targeting at China enjoys bipartisan support at this moment, one of the few exceptions of today’s politics in the U.S.

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2>
<ul>
<li>Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property firm </li>
<li>Stay home, stay safe, spend more</li>
<li>Sell those exports like imports </li>
<li>Chinese firms choose own capital markets</li>
<li>Roaring (quietly) once more, electric vehicles excite China </li>
</ul>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p>
</div>

China News That Matters

Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property firm 
Stay home, stay safe, spend more
Sell those exports like imports 
Chinese firms choose own capital markets
Roaring (quietly) once more, electric vehicles excite China 


In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.


Evergrande/ Golden Week/ Economy/ US-China/ Autos

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.</p>

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>EV stocks have been on a tear, not just in terms of rising share prices but also absorption of capital as Nio has conducted two secondary offerings and Xpeng and Li Auto have conducted IPOs, while WM Motor is also reportedly aiming to IPO and Canoo took the SPAC route. While the narrative seems to be that EVs are the next disruptive force, results continue to underwhelm and a closer look at Nio suggests to us that the share price is not grounded in fundamental reality.</p>

EV stocks have been on a tear, not just in terms of rising share prices but also absorption of capital as Nio has conducted two secondary offerings and Xpeng and Li Auto have conducted IPOs, while WM Motor is also reportedly aiming to IPO and Canoo took the SPAC route. While the narrative seems to be that EVs are the next disruptive force, results continue to underwhelm and a closer look at Nio suggests to us that the share price is not grounded in fundamental reality.

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (NIO US)

China EV: New Threats from Tesla Coming, Prefer XPEV

China's Startup EV brands have been ramping up quickly. BYD showed marketshare gains in September thanks to newly launched Model Han. However,...

Victoria Li

China Macro and Geopolitical Briefing

With only 40+ days left before the Presidential Election in the U.S, China is wisely taking a laissez faire approach to the bilateral issues and...

JL Warren Capital

Evergrande/ Golden Week/ Economy/ US-China/ Autos

China News That Matters

Diana Choyleva

Global Equity Strategy:

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This...

Vermilion Research

Nio – From Overvalued to Absurd

EV stocks have been on a tear, not just in terms of rising share prices but also absorption of capital as Nio has conducted two secondary offerings...

Mio Kato

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