Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last May I proposed a model for thinking about the appropriate discount of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> vs its giant equity portfolio and small operations. It was a sell.</li>
<li>In December, the bank changed its shareholder return ratio, which indicated less value destruction, and tighter appropriate discount. The shares rallied and discount narrowed. </li>
<li>Now the Shares Adjusted for Banking Ops Valuation have seen the discount to After-Tax Equity Portfolio Valuation widen sharply in the past 10 days. So here's the hedging model.</li>
</ul>


Last May I proposed a model for thinking about the appropriate discount of Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) vs its giant equity portfolio and small operations. It was a sell.
In December, the bank changed its shareholder return ratio, which indicated less value destruction, and tighter appropriate discount. The shares rallied and discount narrowed. 
Now the Shares Adjusted for Banking Ops Valuation have seen the discount to After-Tax Equity Portfolio Valuation widen sharply in the past 10 days. So here's the hedging model.


Bank of Kyoto (8369) - A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nintendo's Q2 results show solid performance but still fall short of expectations, with a conservative full-year profit outlook</li>
<li>The impending release of "Switch 2" in 2H24 raises questions about the company's ability to replicate the original Switch's success</li>
<li>We see the current 11x EV/EBIT as fair for the stock and do not anticipate a valuation breakout until the market can assess the credentials of "Switch 2"</li>
</ul>


Nintendo's Q2 results show solid performance but still fall short of expectations, with a conservative full-year profit outlook
The impending release of "Switch 2" in 2H24 raises questions about the company's ability to replicate the original Switch's success
We see the current 11x EV/EBIT as fair for the stock and do not anticipate a valuation breakout until the market can assess the credentials of "Switch 2"


Nintendo (7974) | Stock Performance Ahead 'Switch 2' Speculation

<ul>
<li>Nintendo reported operating profit of 190b yen (-8% YoY), falling far short of Street expectations</li>
<li>The Nintendo Switch is now a six-year old console and demand is exhausted. A normalization of chip/supply chain issues benefits the newer PS5</li>
<li>Our thesis is that the hardware cycle has peaked and that the share price will head lower in tandem with the dwindling top line</li>
</ul>


Nintendo reported operating profit of 190b yen (-8% YoY), falling far short of Street expectations
The Nintendo Switch is now a six-year old console and demand is exhausted. A normalization of chip/supply chain issues benefits the newer PS5
Our thesis is that the hardware cycle has peaked and that the share price will head lower in tandem with the dwindling top line


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a>’s cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>MUFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$19bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)’s cross-shareholding.
MUFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$19bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


MUFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Taking It Slow

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.</li>
<li>Toyota&gt;Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.</li>
<li>JD&gt;BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.</li>
</ul>


KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.
Toyota&gt;Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.
JD&gt;BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.


KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Japan

Nexon Co., Ltd. mainly develops and services, online games for PC and mobile devices. The company also offers consulting services related to online-games. Nexon operates in Japan.

CAPCOM CO., LTD. develops consumer video game software.  The Company also develops, manufactures, markets, and leases arcade game machines.  Capcom also operates amusement facilities.

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

Konami Holdings Corporation provides digital entertainment, health and fitness and gaming products. The Company develops and sells video games, mobile games and computer games, gaming machines, pachislot and pachinko machines, and fitness machines as well as operates health and fitness clubs.

ORACLE CORPORATION JAPAN sells a variety of software, including database management system software, application development tools, decision-making support tools, and business related applications.  The Company also provides support services for users.

SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO., LTD. develops and sells entertainment software for home video game consoles including Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy series. The Company also publishes books such as informational guide books for its game software, and comic magazines and books.  Additionally, Square Enix sells character goods and stationery items from its software products.

OBIC Business Consultants Co.,Ltd. develops and markets business solution packaged software. The Company's products include software for accounting, banking, wage calculation, sales management, inventory control, and tax calculation. OBIC Business Consultants Co Ltd. also provides support and training services.

FUJI SOFT INCORPORATED is an independent software developer, specializing in communications and machine control software, business application software for bank and insurance companies, and operating system software.  Fuji Soft also installs, manages, and maintains computer systems.  The Company develops and sells word processing packaged software and also provides internet service.

Koei Tecmo Holdings Co.,Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Koei Co., Ltd. and Tecmo Ltd. The Company develops and distributes video game software for personal computers and home video game consoles. The Company also operates other media business such as marketing of books and CDs and amusement facility operation.

NSD CO., LTD is an independent computer software development company. The Company's products include operating systems, business software for financial industry, and process control systems.  NSD also provides computer services including managing computer systems and data entry. The Company also sells computers and its peripheral equipment.

Xero Limited offers an online accounting system.  The software features bank transaction importing, a cashbook, a general ledger, invoicing, accounts receivable, accounts payable, financial reporting, and management of expense claims.

VMware, Inc. provides virtualization solutions from the desktop to the data center. The Company's solution products addresses a range of IT problems, which includes cost and operational inefficiencies, business continuity, software lifecycle management and desktop management.

Electronic Arts Inc. develops, publishes, and distributes branded interactive entertainment software worldwide for video game consoles, personal computers, handheld game players, and cellular handsets. The Company also provides online game-related services.

Aspen Technology, Inc. provides software solutions. The Company offers asset optimization software that optimizes asset design, operations, and maintenance in complex, industrial environments to enable organizations to meet their business goals for sustainability and profitability. Aspen Technology serves customers worldwide.

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. develops, markets and supports a range of software and hardware products and services for information technology (IT) security and offers its customers a network and gateway security solutions, data and endpoint security solutions and management solutions.

SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. develops and markets computer software for financial services providers.  The software enables trading and modeling, portfolio management and reporting, accounting, performance measurement, reconciliation, reporting, processing, and clearing.

Fair Isaac Corporation provides analytics, including predictive modeling, decision analysis, intelligence management, decision management systems, and consulting services.  The Company helps companies in countries around the world acquire customers more efficiently, increase customer value, reduce fraud, lower operating expenses, and enter new markets more profitably.

Synopsys, Inc. supplies electronic design automation solutions to the global electronics market.  The Company provides design technologies to creators of advanced integrated circuits, electronic systems, and systems on a chip. Synopsys also provides consulting services and support to its customers to streamline the overall design process and accelerate time to market.

Activision Blizzard, Inc. publishes, develops, and distributes interactive entertainment software and peripheral products. The Company's products cover diverse game categories, including action/adventure, action sports, racing, role playing, simulation, first-person action, music-based gaming and strategy.

Workday, Inc. provides enterprise cloud-based applications. The Company offers human capital, spend, and financial management, as well as payroll, initiatives and higher education solutions. Workday serves the finance, healthcare, manufacturing, education, and technology industries worldwide.

Nintendo Co., Ltd. globally develops, manufactures and sells home-use video game hardware and software in home entertainment business.  The company also produces home-game products including cards.

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Nintendo (7974 JP)

Bank of Kyoto (8369) - A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

The Bank of Kyoto (8369) model is clarified so dynamic hedging ratios depend on regional bank PBRs. The model suggests it's at the cheap end of its...

Travis Lundy

Nintendo (7974) | Stock Performance Ahead 'Switch 2' Speculation

Nintendo's Q2 results were okay, but full year guidance still short. The lack of normal share price cyclicality could limit the impact of the...

Mark Chadwick

Nintendo (7974) | Game Over for Switch

NEW: 1Q operating profit at Y185bn (+82% YoY) and above street forecast of Y144b. The key difference is likely royalty income from the Mario Movie...

Mark Chadwick

MUFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Taking It Slow

Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at MUFG (8306 JP)’s cross-shareholding. MUFG had a stake of over US$100m...

Sumeet Singh

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Chinese softness feels like a rear view mirror story. Leaders in Japan likely to continue to flourish. Invest accordingly.

Douglas Busch

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bank of Kyoto (8369) - A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

The Bank of Kyoto (8369) model is clarified so dynamic hedging ratios depend on regional bank PBRs. The model suggests it's at the cheap end of its...

Travis Lundy

Nintendo (7974) | Stock Performance Ahead 'Switch 2' Speculation

​Nintendo's Q2 results were okay, but full year guidance still short. The lack of normal share price cyclicality could limit the impact of the...

Mark Chadwick

Nintendo (7974) | Game Over for Switch

NEW: 1Q operating profit at Y185bn (+82% YoY) and above street forecast of Y144b. The key difference is likely royalty income from the Mario Movie...

Mark Chadwick

MUFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Taking It Slow

Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at MUFG (8306 JP)’s cross-shareholding. MUFG had a stake of over US$100m...

Sumeet Singh

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

Chinese softness feels like a rear view mirror story. Leaders in Japan likely to continue to flourish. Invest accordingly.

Douglas Busch

Nintendo's Q2 results were okay, but full year guidance still short. The lack of normal share price cyclicality could limit the impact of the...