Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Nintendo results missed consensus by 15% at the revenue level and 17% at the OP level and downgraded Switch unit guidance to 24m as “previewed” by the Nikkei previously. There was a small upgrade to guidance but given the cheap valuations for the stock we are most interested in how the market reacts to this somewhat ambiguous result.

Nintendo results missed consensus by 15% at the revenue level and 17% at the OP level and downgraded Switch unit guidance to 24m as “previewed” by the Nikkei previously. There was a small upgrade to guidance but given the cheap valuations for the stock we are most interested in how the market reacts to this somewhat ambiguous result.

Nintendo – A Miss, but Is This the Peak of Negative Sentiment?

The demo for Monster Hunter Rise’s PC version has dropped and early indications are extremely positive. We were initially treating the PC version as an add-on to “core” Switch sales but even though it is a port we are starting to think volumes could be quite significant.

The demo for Monster Hunter Rise’s PC version has dropped and early indications are extremely positive. We were initially treating the PC version as an add-on to “core” Switch sales but even though it is a port we are starting to think volumes could be quite significant.

Capcom – Monster Hunter Rise for PC Could Be a Pretty Big Deal

We previously noted that the Metroid series has not been a big seller, at least compared to most of Nintendo’s heavyweight titles, and it hasn’t been as it has yet to break the 3m unit mark for a single title. As such we did not play especially close attention to the latest release but maybe we should have.

We previously noted that the Metroid series has not been a big seller, at least compared to most of Nintendo’s heavyweight titles, and it hasn’t been as it has yet to break the 3m unit mark for a single title. As such we did not play especially close attention to the latest release but maybe we should have.

Nintendo – Can Metroid Dread Hit the 10m Unit Mark

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This has continued and stands to benefit Square Enix significantly but this impact does not appear to be priced in yet.

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This has continued and stands to benefit Square Enix significantly but this impact does not appear to be priced in yet.

Square Enix – The Market STILL Has Not Priced in the FFXIV Boom

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/nintendo-switch-4k-developers-make-games-for-nonexistent-console" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg has a follow-up</a> on the fate of Nintendo’s 4K Switch claiming that 11 game companies had been supplied 4K development kits for the Switch though a 4K version was not expected until at least late next year. Nintendo has denied these reports, but in rather specific language that suggests to us that the reports may in fact be correct.

Bloomberg has a follow-up on the fate of Nintendo’s 4K Switch claiming that 11 game companies had been supplied 4K development kits for the Switch though a 4K version was not expected until at least late next year. Nintendo has denied these reports, but in rather specific language that suggests to us that the reports may in fact be correct.

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells household leisure equipment. The Company produces home use video game hardware and software products. Nintendo markets its products throughout Japan.

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Nintendo (NTDOY US)

Nintendo – A Miss, but Is This the Peak of Negative Sentiment?

Nintendo results missed consensus by 15% at the revenue level and 17% at the OP level and downgraded Switch unit guidance to 24m as “previewed” by...

Mio Kato

Capcom – Monster Hunter Rise for PC Could Be a Pretty Big Deal

The demo for Monster Hunter Rise’s PC version has dropped and early indications are extremely positive so we are starting to think volumes could be...

Mio Kato

Nintendo – Can Metroid Dread Hit the 10m Unit Mark

The Metroid series has not been a big seller and is yet to break the 3m unit mark for a single title. As such we did not pay especially close...

Mio Kato

Square Enix – The Market STILL Has Not Priced in the FFXIV Boom

In the middle of July we noted that Square Enix was benefitting from increased streamer interest in FFXIV at the expense of World of Warcraft. This...

Mio Kato

Nintendo – To 4K or Not to 4K

Nintendo has denied Bloomberg reports that developers have access to 4K development kits, but in a way that suggests to us that the reports may in...

Mio Kato

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