IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. At the mid-point of the IPO price range of HK$39.36-43.36 per share, the net proceeds are HK$24,713 million ($3.2 billion). JD Logistics will price its IPO this Friday (21 May). The offer has received a strong reception, with the retail offer oversubscribed 200x and the international offer fully subscribed, according to press reports. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-prioritizing-market-share-gains-over-margins" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50976" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins</a>, we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51524" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth. In this note, we present our base-case DCF valuation and present a valuation sensitivity analysis around market share and margin forecasts. </p></div></div></div>

JD Logistics (2618 HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. At the mid-point of the IPO price range of HK$39.36-43.36 per share, the net proceeds are HK$24,713 million ($3.2 billion). JD Logistics will price its IPO this Friday (21 May). The offer has received a strong reception, with the retail offer oversubscribed 200x and the international offer fully subscribed, according to press reports. In JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins, we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. In JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth. In this note, we present our base-case DCF valuation and present a valuation sensitivity analysis around market share and margin forecasts. 

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Scenario Analysis

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>’s in-house logistics department in 2007.</p></div><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$39.36-43.36 per share, JD Logistics will have a market cap of HK$239,766-264,132 million ($30.9-34.0 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$24,713 million ($3.2 billion). Seven cornerstone investors will purchase $1.5 billion worth of the offer shares (47.16% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The cornerstone investors are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>, Temasek, Tiger Global, China Structural Reform Fund, Blackstone,  Matthews Funds and Oaktree. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-initiation-the-flow-of-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48279" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things</a>, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services.</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-prioritizing-market-share-gains-over-margins" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50976" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins</a>,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that the IPO price range is attractive, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth. </p></div></div></div>

JD Logistics (2618 HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)’s in-house logistics department in 2007.At the proposed IPO price range of HK$39.36-43.36 per share, JD Logistics will have a market cap of HK$239,766-264,132 million ($30.9-34.0 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$24,713 million ($3.2 billion). Seven cornerstone investors will purchase $1.5 billion worth of the offer shares (47.16% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). The cornerstone investors are Softbank Group (9984 JP), Temasek, Tiger Global, China Structural Reform Fund, Blackstone,  Matthews Funds and Oaktree. In JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services.In JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that the IPO price range is attractive, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth. 

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>’s in-house logistics department in 2007.</p>
<p>JD Logistics is seeking to raise up to $3-4 billion at a $40 billion valuation, according to press reports. Merrill Lynch and Haitong, which are part of the syndicate, have valued JD Logistics at $30.0-45.4 billion and $42.4-44.3 billion, respectively, <a href="https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/2/229859/JD-Logistics-gets-ball-rolling-for-US%244b-IPO" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to press reports</a>. </p>
</div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-initiation-the-flow-of-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48279" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things</a>, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-prioritizing-market-share-gains-over-margins" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50976" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins</a>,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. </p>
</div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we update our forecasts and valuation presented in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48384" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Valuation First Look</a> for the latest set of results and the margin guidance. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured $40 billion valuation target is fair, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth. </p></div></div></div>


JD Logistics (JDL HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)’s in-house logistics department in 2007.
JD Logistics is seeking to raise up to $3-4 billion at a $40 billion valuation, according to press reports. Merrill Lynch and Haitong, which are part of the syndicate, have valued JD Logistics at $30.0-45.4 billion and $42.4-44.3 billion, respectively, according to press reports. 

In JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services.
In JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. 
In this note, we update our forecasts and valuation presented in JD Logistics IPO: Valuation First Look for the latest set of results and the margin guidance. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured $40 billion valuation target is fair, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth. 

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. </p></div><div><p>JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics services provider in China in terms of revenue in 2018 and 2019. The company offers a full spectrum of supply chain solutions and logistics services ranging from warehousing to distribution, spanning across manufacturing to end-customers, covering regular and specialized items. </p></div><div><p>In this note, we briefly look at the JDL’s PHIP filing which includes FY2020 numbers and fine-tune our valuation model.</p></div><div><p>We had previously covered the IPO in:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-shielded-from-price-war" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50575" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-tethered-to-jd-group-and-looking-beyond" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48396" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50953" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation</a> </li>
</ul></div>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics services provider in China in terms of revenue in 2018 and 2019. The company offers a full spectrum of supply chain solutions and logistics services ranging from warehousing to distribution, spanning across manufacturing to end-customers, covering regular and specialized items. In this note, we briefly look at the JDL’s PHIP filing which includes FY2020 numbers and fine-tune our valuation model.We had previously covered the IPO in:

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation 


JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Fine-Tuning Valuation

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.7% revenue market share in 2020, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>’s in-house logistics department in 2007. JD Group is the controlling shareholder with a 79.12% stake. JD Logistics has won approval for an HKEx IPO to raise $3-4 billion, according to press reports. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-initiation-the-flow-of-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48279" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things</a>, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. </p><p>In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments. The results underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The Chinese logistics market is highly price-competitive, and scale is crucial to sustained profitable growth. In a consolidating market, the eventual winners will be companies that can invest in infrastructure and capacity to gain market share and economies of scale benefits. We think that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. </p></div>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.7% revenue market share in 2020, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)’s in-house logistics department in 2007. JD Group is the controlling shareholder with a 79.12% stake. JD Logistics has won approval for an HKEx IPO to raise $3-4 billion, according to press reports. In JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments. The results underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. The Chinese logistics market is highly price-competitive, and scale is crucial to sustained profitable growth. In a consolidating market, the eventual winners will be companies that can invest in infrastructure and capacity to gain market share and economies of scale benefits. We think that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. 

JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins

China

Yunda Holding Co Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides industrial investment, enterprise management, business consulting, car rental, technical development, information technology, and advertising services. Yunda Holding serves customers in China.

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Yunda Holding (002120 CH)

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Scenario Analysis

JD Logistics will price its IPO this Friday (21 May). We present our base-case DCF valuation and present a valuation sensitivity analysis around...

Arun George

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Insights

The net proceeds are $3.2 billion at the mid-point of the IPO price range. We think that the IPO price range is attractive due to JD Logistics'...

Arun George

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

JD Logistics is set to launch its IPO to raise $3-4 bn in May. The rumoured $40 bn valuation is fair, particularly in the context of its...

Arun George

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Fine-Tuning Valuation

JD Logistics is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Scenario Analysis

JD Logistics will price its IPO this Friday (21 May). We present our base-case DCF valuation and present a valuation sensitivity analysis around...

Arun George

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation Insights

The net proceeds are $3.2 billion at the mid-point of the IPO price range. We think that the IPO price range is attractive due to JD Logistics'...

Arun George

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

JD Logistics is set to launch its IPO to raise $3-4 bn in May. The rumoured $40 bn valuation is fair, particularly in the context of its...

Arun George

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Fine-Tuning Valuation

JD Logistics is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins

JD Logistics has won approval for an HKEx IPO to raise $3-4 bn. JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s price-competitive...

Arun George