Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We talk about what we see and hear here on the ground, that the company may not mention in its prospectus.</li>
<li>We believe Cainiao has the ambition to take the whole logistics chain from retailers’ doors to shoppers’ doors since the company’s inception.</li>
<li>We also believe Cainiao has been trying to take competitors’ market share by taking their client lists.</li>
</ul>


We talk about what we see and hear here on the ground, that the company may not mention in its prospectus.
We believe Cainiao has the ambition to take the whole logistics chain from retailers’ doors to shoppers’ doors since the company’s inception.
We also believe Cainiao has been trying to take competitors’ market share by taking their client lists.


Cainiao Pre-IPO: An on the Ground Introduction

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a>'s multi-faceted logistics unit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a> may seek an IPO in Hong Kong before the end of 2023, according to media reports</li>
<li>In this piece we look at why CaiNiao is being spun off <em>now</em>, what the company actually does (and doesn't do), what its likely comps are, and more</li>
<li>CaiNiao is unique, but we can begin to understand its position and its valuation by comparing it to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>
</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)'s multi-faceted logistics unit Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) may seek an IPO in Hong Kong before the end of 2023, according to media reports
In this piece we look at why CaiNiao is being spun off now, what the company actually does (and doesn't do), what its likely comps are, and more
CaiNiao is unique, but we can begin to understand its position and its valuation by comparing it to JD Logistics (2618 HK) and S.F. Holding (002352 CH)



TRACKING TRAFFIC/Alibaba Logistics Arm CaiNiao May Seek HK IPO Soon

<ul>
<li>Within <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a>'s June quarter results, the numbers from logistics arm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a> stood out: revenue up 34% Y/Y, &amp; EBITA turned to +ive</li>
<li>In this insight we attempt to place Cainiao's stellar results into context: it grew far faster than parent Alibaba's revenue, but also faster than Chinese e-comm and Chinese express</li>
<li>As Cainiao preps for its IPO, its June results should boost investors' confidence. The numbers also hint at what is driving Cainiao's recent performance, and which indicators to watch</li>
</ul>


Within Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)'s June quarter results, the numbers from logistics arm Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) stood out: revenue up 34% Y/Y, &amp; EBITA turned to +ive
In this insight we attempt to place Cainiao's stellar results into context: it grew far faster than parent Alibaba's revenue, but also faster than Chinese e-comm and Chinese express
As Cainiao preps for its IPO, its June results should boost investors' confidence. The numbers also hint at what is driving Cainiao's recent performance, and which indicators to watch


With A Long-Anticipated IPO on the Horizon, Alibaba's Cainiao Posts Stellar June Quarter Results

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Express industry pricing fell by -5% in August, but some companies' ASPs fell by far more</li>
<li>Reportedly, we could see movement on planned J&amp;T Express and CaiNiao IPOs this week</li>
<li>We think SF Holding should outperform its "plain vanilla" express peers in medium-term</li>
</ul>


Express industry pricing fell by -5% in August, but some companies' ASPs fell by far more
Reportedly, we could see movement on planned J&amp;T Express and CaiNiao IPOs this week
We think SF Holding should outperform its "plain vanilla" express peers in medium-term


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short 'Ground'? | (September 2023)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a>'s impressive 1H23 and 2Q23 results are only reflections of its competitive strengths. We believe the company is poised to generate even better profitability. </li>
<li>Its market share expansion, excellent cost management, positive volume growth, new business initiatives and solid net cash position are all strengths that drive long-term outlook.</li>
<li>While trading on premium vs. peers, ZTO's PER valuations are well justified by its leadership position, healthy financial position, and high EPS CAGR for FY23-FY25F.</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)'s impressive 1H23 and 2Q23 results are only reflections of its competitive strengths. We believe the company is poised to generate even better profitability. 
Its market share expansion, excellent cost management, positive volume growth, new business initiatives and solid net cash position are all strengths that drive long-term outlook.
While trading on premium vs. peers, ZTO's PER valuations are well justified by its leadership position, healthy financial position, and high EPS CAGR for FY23-FY25F.


ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Rock Solid Competitive Position

China

Yunda Holding Co Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides industrial investment, enterprise management, business consulting, car rental, technical development, information technology, and advertising services. Yunda Holding serves customers in China.

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Yunda Holding (002120 CH)

Cainiao Pre-IPO: An on the Ground Introduction

We believe Cainiao has the ambition to take the whole logistics chain from retailers’ doors to shoppers’ doors by taking competitors' client lists...

Ming Lu

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Alibaba Logistics Arm CaiNiao May Seek HK IPO Soon

In response to the news CaiNiao Smart Logistics has applied to list its shares in Hong Kong, we're re-upping this insight

Tracking Traffic

With A Long-Anticipated IPO on the Horizon, Alibaba's Cainiao Posts Stellar June Quarter Results

In response to the news CaiNiao Smart Logistics has applied to list its shares in Hong Kong, we're re-upping this insight

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short 'Ground'? | (September 2023)

Pricing continued to weaken for domestic "ground" parcels in August, adding to pressure on margins in Q3. However, we believe SF Holding is mostly...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Rock Solid Competitive Position

Market share expansion, cost management, volume growth, new initiatives, and solid net cash contribute to ZTO's outlook. Its leadership position...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Cainiao Pre-IPO: An on the Ground Introduction

We believe Cainiao has the ambition to take the whole logistics chain from retailers’ doors to shoppers’ doors by taking competitors' client lists...

Ming Lu

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Alibaba Logistics Arm CaiNiao May Seek HK IPO Soon

In response to the news CaiNiao Smart Logistics has applied to list its shares in Hong Kong, we're re-upping this insight

Tracking Traffic

With A Long-Anticipated IPO on the Horizon, Alibaba's Cainiao Posts Stellar June Quarter Results

In response to the news CaiNiao Smart Logistics has applied to list its shares in Hong Kong, we're re-upping this insight

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short 'Ground'? | (September 2023)

Pricing continued to weaken for domestic "ground" parcels in August, adding to pressure on margins in Q3. However, we believe SF Holding is mostly...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Rock Solid Competitive Position

Market share expansion, cost management, volume growth, new initiatives, and solid net cash contribute to ZTO's outlook. Its leadership position...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Rock Solid Competitive Position