Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>While our SSE 50 expected ADDs/DELs list remains unchanged, there have been multiple changes to our SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs list.</li>
</ul>


SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
While our SSE 50 expected ADDs/DELs list remains unchanged, there have been multiple changes to our SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs list.


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Multiple Changes to Expectations; US$2.2bn One-Way

<ul>
<li>SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We currently see 5 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 50 index and 18 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 180 index. </li>
</ul>


SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
We currently see 5 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 50 index and 18 ADDs/DELs for the SSE 180 index. 


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations; US$1.5bn One-Way for SSE 50

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Western Superconducting Techno / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over 85% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI500 Index</a>, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.4% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 7.22bn.</li>
<li>With the market being stabilised through the ETF route, the index constituents have outperformed the non-index constituents over the last 6-7 weeks. That could reverse over the near term.</li>
</ul>


Over 85% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.4% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 7.22bn.
With the market being stabilised through the ETF route, the index constituents have outperformed the non-index constituents over the last 6-7 weeks. That could reverse over the near term.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangnan-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9828:1" rel="noopener">Jiangnan (1366 HK)</a> scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 15 May. The IFA considers the HK$0.40 per share offer to be fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>Key conditions include approval by at least 75% independent shareholders (&lt;10% rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake has provided an irrevocable on 22 March.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 31 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.9% and 44.0%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The Jiangnan (1366 HK) scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 15 May. The IFA considers the HK$0.40 per share offer to be fair and reasonable. 
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% independent shareholders (&lt;10% rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake has provided an irrevocable on 22 March.
This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 31 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.9% and 44.0%, respectively.


Jiangnan Group (1366 HK): Scheme Vote on 15 May

China

Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co., Ltd. provides, designs, manufactures, installs and services land cables and subsea cables. The Company's cables are used by energy companies and subsea service providers in onshore and offshore environments.

Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables C (603606 CH)

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Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables C (603606 CH)

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Multiple Changes to Expectations; US$2.2bn One-Way

On average, the SSE 50 expected ADDs/DELs have ~3x ADV to trade. We expect US$1.9bn one-way flows for SSE 50 and US$288mn one-way flows for SSE 180...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Some Changes to Expectations; US$1.5bn One-Way for SSE 50

We estimate one-way flows for SSE 50 and SSE 180 to be US$1.5bn and US$235mn respectively. Some of the names in our expected ADDs/DELs list have...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

There should be 50 changes in Dec with a big sector skew. Turnover is ~10% and 31 stocks will have 1x ADV to trade. Huge ETF inflows have led to...

Brian Freitas

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

We see 50 changes a side for the CSI500 in Dec. The Industrials sector could take a lot of index spots from Materials as one-way turnover exceeds...

Brian Freitas

Jiangnan Group (1366 HK): Scheme Vote on 15 May

The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 31 May payment, the gross and annualised...

Arun George

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