Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class=""><li>This week in trade ideas: Short NKY and USD-JPY. Still short US tech vs SPX. Contrarian long Russia equities vs EM. Stay long Saudi equities post-FTSE Russell index decision. No longer positioned for RMB basket-depreciation near-term. Take profit on short Philippine and Indian equities, long Malaysia. Close AUD-NZD.</li><li>Monday: New Zealand trade, Fed Mester, EU-UK discuss Irish border, Egypt elections (Mon-Wed)</li><li>Tuesday: Sweden economic tendency, $35bn 5yr UST auction, Hungary MNB, Argentina BCRA, Fed Bostic</li><li>Wednesday: Germany consumer confidence, $29bn 7yr UST auction, Thailand BOT, South Africa SARB, FTSE Russell index decision for Saudi Arabia</li><li>Thursday: Japan retail sales, Germany CPI, Canada GDP, US personal income/spending, Turkey GDP, Czech CNB, Egypt CBE</li><li>Friday: Japan jobs/Tokyo CPI/IP, Turkey trade, Holidays (US, Singapore, HK, EU, UK, among others)</li><li>Saturday: China NBS PMI</li><li>Corporate earnings: Agribank, Sinopec, China Vanke, China Evergrand (Mon), ICBC, CCB, Kweichow Moutai, Lululemon (Tue), Walgreens Boots, Monsanto, Citic, China Everbright (Wed), Bank of China, Bank of Communications, SAIC Motor, CNOOC, BOC HK (Thu)</li><li>Market holidays: US, Singapore, HK, Australia, NZ, EU, UK, Canada, Mexico, Brazil (Good Friday)</li></ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.This week in trade ideas: Short NKY and USD-JPY. Still short US tech vs SPX. Contrarian long Russia equities vs EM. Stay long Saudi equities post-FTSE Russell index decision. No longer positioned for RMB basket-depreciation near-term. Take profit on short Philippine and Indian equities, long Malaysia. Close AUD-NZD.Monday: New Zealand trade, Fed Mester, EU-UK discuss Irish border, Egypt elections (Mon-Wed)Tuesday: Sweden economic tendency, $35bn 5yr UST auction, Hungary MNB, Argentina BCRA, Fed BosticWednesday: Germany consumer confidence, $29bn 7yr UST auction, Thailand BOT, South Africa SARB, FTSE Russell index decision for Saudi ArabiaThursday: Japan retail sales, Germany CPI, Canada GDP, US personal income/spending, Turkey GDP, Czech CNB, Egypt CBEFriday: Japan jobs/Tokyo CPI/IP, Turkey trade, Holidays (US, Singapore, HK, EU, UK, among others)Saturday: China NBS PMICorporate earnings: Agribank, Sinopec, China Vanke, China Evergrand (Mon), ICBC, CCB, Kweichow Moutai, Lululemon (Tue), Walgreens Boots, Monsanto, Citic, China Everbright (Wed), Bank of China, Bank of Communications, SAIC Motor, CNOOC, BOC HK (Thu)Market holidays: US, Singapore, HK, Australia, NZ, EU, UK, Canada, Mexico, Brazil (Good Friday)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Tech and Trade Risks, China PMI, FTSE on Saudi, SARB, Good Friday

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class=""><li>This week in trade ideas: Strategic short US Treasury 10s on a medium-term upward drift in inflation. Long Korean equities on prospective reduction in geopolitical risk premium. We keep relative value long positioning in: US banks vs SPX, NOK vs SEK, Japanese steel vs US steel and Saudi equities vs EM. We add short Russia RUB to our watchlist.</li><li>Monday: Japan machine tool orders, 3/10yr UST auction, India CPI/IP, Italy PD meeting, Spain Catalonia parliament selects regional president</li><li>Tuesday: US CPI, 30yr UST auction, Australia home loans, Malaysia/Mexico IP, Argentina BCRA, US special election in Pennsylvania</li><li>Wednesday: BOJ minutes, China activity (retails/IP/FAI), Japan core machine orders, Sweden CPI, Argentina CPI, Germany Merkel inauguration</li><li>Thursday: NZ GDP, SNB/Norges Bank MPC, TIC flows, Indonesia/India trade, Philippines remittances, EU27 approves Brexit text</li><li>Friday: Japan IP, US housing starts, US UMich sentiment, Singapore NODX</li><li>Corporate earnings:  Bharti Airtel, Ayala Corp (PH) (Mon), Sberbank, Antofagasta (Tue), Inditex, Prudential, Lukoil, Adidas (Wed), Broadcom, Adobe, Petrobras, Audi, Dollar General, Tenaga, DP World (Thu), CK Hutchison, Tiffany (Fri)</li></ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.This week in trade ideas: Strategic short US Treasury 10s on a medium-term upward drift in inflation. Long Korean equities on prospective reduction in geopolitical risk premium. We keep relative value long positioning in: US banks vs SPX, NOK vs SEK, Japanese steel vs US steel and Saudi equities vs EM. We add short Russia RUB to our watchlist.Monday: Japan machine tool orders, 3/10yr UST auction, India CPI/IP, Italy PD meeting, Spain Catalonia parliament selects regional presidentTuesday: US CPI, 30yr UST auction, Australia home loans, Malaysia/Mexico IP, Argentina BCRA, US special election in PennsylvaniaWednesday: BOJ minutes, China activity (retails/IP/FAI), Japan core machine orders, Sweden CPI, Argentina CPI, Germany Merkel inaugurationThursday: NZ GDP, SNB/Norges Bank MPC, TIC flows, Indonesia/India trade, Philippines remittances, EU27 approves Brexit textFriday: Japan IP, US housing starts, US UMich sentiment, Singapore NODXCorporate earnings:  Bharti Airtel, Ayala Corp (PH) (Mon), Sberbank, Antofagasta (Tue), Inditex, Prudential, Lukoil, Adidas (Wed), Broadcom, Adobe, Petrobras, Audi, Dollar General, Tenaga, DP World (Thu), CK Hutchison, Tiffany (Fri)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US CPI, UST Auctions, China Activity, Norges Bank, NZ GDP

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/046/669/original/CP%20header.jpg?1520570037" data-smartkarma-image-id="46669"></figure>Pre NFP Friday 9 March 2018Our base case called for a low and rally from S&amp;P 2,660 to 2,740-50 and where we are currently resting. The following webcast outlines levels in the US that will induce a secondary fade pullback of extended rise that will impact/shift the global cycle. T Note futures have formed a powerful micro triangle pattern that will be followed by an explosive breakout; trigger levels are outlined. Bond yield will act as the primary driver for inflection key equity pivot levels.…

Pre NFP Friday 9 March 2018Our base case called for a low and rally from S&amp;P 2,660 to 2,740-50 and where we are currently resting. The following webcast outlines levels in the US that will induce a secondary fade pullback of extended rise that will impact/shift the global cycle. T Note futures have formed a powerful micro triangle pattern that will be followed by an explosive breakout; trigger levels are outlined. Bond yield will act as the primary driver for inflection key equity pivot levels.…

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class="">
<li>
This week in trade ideas: Go strategic long Norwegian Krone vs EUR and Saudi stocks. Stay short Italian stocks and bonds vs Stoxx 600 and Bunds. Consider fading Trump steel tariff news via relative value short US steel names vs Japanese peers. Stay strategic short Swedish Krona vs EUR. We stay constructive on JPY.</li>
<li>
Monday: Markets digest Italy vote/Germany SPD referendum, Trump tariffs on steel. Also: Australia MI CPI…</li>
</ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas: Go strategic long Norwegian Krone vs EUR and Saudi stocks. Stay short Italian stocks and bonds vs Stoxx 600 and Bunds. Consider fading Trump steel tariff news via relative value short US steel names vs Japanese peers. Stay strategic short Swedish Krona vs EUR. We stay constructive on JPY.

Monday: Markets digest Italy vote/Germany SPD referendum, Trump tariffs on steel. Also: Australia MI CPI…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: US NFP, Tariffs, ECB, BOJ, RBA, China NPC/CPI/Trade, BOC, BNM

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

For Elliott wave reasons, the area around Topix 1,680 has become critical.  Whilst that broadly holds, the odds favour a final fun to new highs along with the US, assuming the action in the Dollar/Yen does not hinder that bullish influence.  However, of the 11 indicators we follow which give directional signals, only one (13-week ADX) is signalling that a new high is likely.  The others all contain divergence warnings to some degree.

For Elliott wave reasons, the area around Topix 1,680 has become critical.  Whilst that broadly holds, the odds favour a final fun to new highs along with the US, assuming the action in the Dollar/Yen does not hinder that bullish influence.  However, of the 11 indicators we follow which give directional signals, only one (13-week ADX) is signalling that a new high is likely.  The others all contain divergence warnings to some degree.

Topix: Why 1,680 Is Critical to the 20-Month Uptrend

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Tech and Trade Risks, China PMI, FTSE on Saudi, SARB, Good Friday

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Short NKY and USD-JPY. Still short US tech...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US CPI, UST Auctions, China Activity, Norges Bank, NZ GDP

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Strategic short US Treasury 10s on a...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

S&P/Bond Levels that Will Tip the Scales

Pre NFP Friday 9 March 2018Our base case called for a low and rally from S&P 2,660 to 2,740-50 and where we are currently resting. The...

Thomas Schroeder

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US NFP, Tariffs, ECB, BOJ, RBA, China NPC/CPI/Trade, BOC, BNM

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Go strategic long Norwegian Krone vs EUR...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Topix: Why 1,680 Is Critical to the 20-Month Uptrend

For Elliott wave reasons, the area around Topix 1,680 has become critical. Whilst that broadly holds, the odds favour a final fun to new highs...

Peter Beuttell