Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Indian Exchange Announcement Really Hurts:  On February 9, 2018, the Indian stock exchanges collectively terminated Singapore Exchange's (SGX.SP) [SGX] market data licensing agreement.  Indian contracts appear to represent 5.5% of overall derivative revenue – or 10% or more of SGX bottom-line. * De-Listing Challenges:  SGX has robust initial public offering (IPO) pipeline in 2018, but it is not nearly enough to offset the trading volume and market-cap loss associated with the deluge of…

* Indian Exchange Announcement Really Hurts:  On February 9, 2018, the Indian stock exchanges collectively terminated Singapore Exchange's (SGX.SP) [SGX] market data licensing agreement.  Indian contracts appear to represent 5.5% of overall derivative revenue – or 10% or more of SGX bottom-line. * De-Listing Challenges:  SGX has robust initial public offering (IPO) pipeline in 2018, but it is not nearly enough to offset the trading volume and market-cap loss associated with the deluge of…

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul>
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This week in trade ideas, we maintain short positions on US stocks and bonds via FANG+ stocks and 30-year USTs. We are strategic long JPY and short Indian and Philippine equities. We are biased short GBP on a tactical basis.</li>
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Monday: Switzerland CPI, India CPI, Trump budget plans (infra and 2019 budget blueprint), OPEC oil market report</li>
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Tuesday: Japan PPI, UK CPI, IEA oil market report</li>
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Wednesday: Japan GDP, Sweden Riksbank…</li>
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Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas, we maintain short positions on US stocks and bonds via FANG+ stocks and 30-year USTs. We are strategic long JPY and short Indian and Philippine equities. We are biased short GBP on a tactical basis.

Monday: Switzerland CPI, India CPI, Trump budget plans (infra and 2019 budget blueprint), OPEC oil market report

Tuesday: Japan PPI, UK CPI, IEA oil market report

Wednesday: Japan GDP, Sweden Riksbank…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: Inflation (US, UK, Oil Reports, India), Japan/EU GDP, Lunar New Year

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

<div style="text-align: left;">Asia bid support is coming through with signs of resilience. This tactical insight outlines S&amp;P pivot levels and the markets that are showing a firmer chart and bid support bias in Asia as well as the weaker market postures where we want to reduce risk on tactical strength. February is a seasonally weak month with US equities in a fragile state barring a push back above S&amp;P 2,810. We placed short protection at S&amp;P 2,844 and 2,807 on the back of warning signals of a fallout and followed with…</div>

Asia bid support is coming through with signs of resilience. This tactical insight outlines S&amp;P pivot levels and the markets that are showing a firmer chart and bid support bias in Asia as well as the weaker market postures where we want to reduce risk on tactical strength. February is a seasonally weak month with US equities in a fragile state barring a push back above S&amp;P 2,810. We placed short protection at S&amp;P 2,844 and 2,807 on the back of warning signals of a fallout and followed with…

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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 
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Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.</li>
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Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee</li>
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Tuesday…</li>
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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 


Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.

Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee

Tuesday…



Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

-India's Economic Survey for 2017/18 correctly points out that the "twin balance sheet problems" of weak corporate and bank balance sheets have been binding constraints on investment, and hence on a sustained economic recovery. However, the evidence of an investment revival is quite clear to us from recent industrial, trade and credit data. -Capital goods output was up 9.4% YoY in November 2017 and infrastructure goods output was up 13.5% YoY. While a base effect helped in November, capital…

-India's Economic Survey for 2017/18 correctly points out that the "twin balance sheet problems" of weak corporate and bank balance sheets have been binding constraints on investment, and hence on a sustained economic recovery. However, the evidence of an investment revival is quite clear to us from recent industrial, trade and credit data. -Capital goods output was up 9.4% YoY in November 2017 and infrastructure goods output was up 13.5% YoY. While a base effect helped in November, capital…

The Long-Awaited Investment Revival Is Here

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Singapore Exchange – Not So NIFTY

* Indian Exchange Announcement Really Hurts: On February 9, 2018, the Indian stock exchanges collectively terminated Singapore Exchange's (SGX.SP)...

Thomas J. Monaco

Week Ahead in Global Macro: Inflation (US, UK, Oil Reports, India), Japan/EU GDP, Lunar New Year

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas, we maintain short positions on US stocks...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Asia Chart Levels and Where to Add Risk

Asia bid support is coming through with signs of resilience. This tactical insight outlines S&P pivot levels and the markets that are showing a...

Thomas Schroeder

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

The Long-Awaited Investment Revival Is Here

-India's Economic Survey for 2017/18 correctly points out that the "twin balance sheet problems" of weak corporate and bank balance sheets have...

Prasenjit K. Basu