Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

The Nifty Index has made a fresh high today. However, for the foreign (non-Indian) investor, this is not yet realised as the currency has weakened over the past few weeks.Could this break be meaningful, and have we seen the worst in the short term for the Rupee?

The Nifty Index has made a fresh high today. However, for the foreign (non-Indian) investor, this is not yet realised as the currency has weakened over the past few weeks.Could this break be meaningful, and have we seen the worst in the short term for the Rupee? 

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.The review period runs from February to July and we are nearing the last leg of data that will be used to determine the inclusions and exclusions. We currently see no change to the index, though that could change if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)</a> and/or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment, or if there is a big rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a>.20 stocks have been added to the F&amp;O segment so far this year and there is a possibility that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> and/or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)</a> are included in the segment in the next month.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a>'s average free float market cap is 1.41 times the average free float market cap of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. To reach the 1.5 times average free float market cap threshold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> will need to outperform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a> by 32% on average over the rest of the review period.If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN)</a> are added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a>, the impact of passive buying will be high at over 7 days of ADV. The impact on the potential deletions is around 3 days of ADV to sell.

The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.The review period runs from February to July and we are nearing the last leg of data that will be used to determine the inclusions and exclusions. We currently see no change to the index, though that could change if Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) and/or Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment, or if there is a big rally in Info Edge India (INFOE IN).20 stocks have been added to the F&amp;O segment so far this year and there is a possibility that Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) and/or Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) are included in the segment in the next month.Info Edge India (INFOE IN)'s average free float market cap is 1.41 times the average free float market cap of Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). To reach the 1.5 times average free float market cap threshold, Info Edge India (INFOE IN) will need to outperform Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) by 32% on average over the rest of the review period.If Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) or Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR IN) are added to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX), the impact of passive buying will be high at over 7 days of ADV. The impact on the potential deletions is around 3 days of ADV to sell.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Catalysts for Change

Cross Asset Strategy

Indian markets seem to have ignored all recent concerns given the horrid Covid situation on the ground. In USD terms the Sensex, for example, has been among the best performing markets over the past month.Is there simply something going on that does not easily meet the eye or have buyers been sucked in to a setup that warns of danger?

Indian markets seem to have ignored all recent concerns given the horrid Covid situation on the ground. In USD terms the Sensex, for example, has been among the best performing markets over the past month.Is there simply something going on that does not easily meet the eye or have buyers been sucked in to a setup that warns of danger?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

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Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Rejection at the underside of the SPX broken wedge trendline will define the speed of the next down leg in Asia. Bear momentum below 4,150/40 would place greater odds of a harder pullback.Long bets: ASX and A50 with HSCEI next in line (for now a relative long)Short bets: Taiwan, Nikkei, Korea with India flirting with the 15k pivot. Taiwan and Nikkei are the conviction short bets to recycle while a weak bounce off of trendline makes Korea the next short target.A more volatile cycle is due in late May.

Rejection at the underside of the SPX broken wedge trendline will define the speed of the next down leg in Asia. Bear momentum below 4,150/40 would place greater odds of a harder pullback.Long bets: ASX and A50 with HSCEI next in line (for now a relative long)Short bets: Taiwan, Nikkei, Korea with India flirting with the 15k pivot. Taiwan and Nikkei are the conviction short bets to recycle while a weak bounce off of trendline makes Korea the next short target.A more volatile cycle is due in late May.

This webcast kicks off with the pivotal SPX break point at 4,100/30. After a meagre bounce attempt we expect this pivot to break, leading to a harder decline into late May/June.Eurostoxx is teetering on rising wedge bear pivot support.<div>We reiterate the slew of rising wedge supports starting to fall like a domino.</div><div></div><div>
Top shorts in Asia responding in line - HK, Nikkei, Taiwan and India next in line. Some key support points are or about to give way that will usher in a higher momentum decline.</div>

This webcast kicks off with the pivotal SPX break point at 4,100/30. After a meagre bounce attempt we expect this pivot to break, leading to a harder decline into late May/June.Eurostoxx is teetering on rising wedge bear pivot support.We reiterate the slew of rising wedge supports starting to fall like a domino.
Top shorts in Asia responding in line - HK, Nikkei, Taiwan and India next in line. Some key support points are or about to give way that will usher in a higher momentum decline.

Top Asian Shorts to Hit the Acceleration Button

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Indian Markets: Breaks and Setups

The Nifty looks set to breakout as USDINR tops out. These charts suggest that the Nifty in USD terms could rise anywhere from 4.5% to 6% above...

Shyam Devani

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Catalysts for Change

There are no changes expected to the NIFTY Index at the September rebalance. However, the inclusion of DMART and/or Adani Green in the F&O segment...

Brian Freitas

India's Nifty: Have We Seen This Before?

Is there simply something going on that does not easily meet the eye or have buyers been sucked in to a setup that warns of danger?

Shyam Devani

Asia Long/Short Trades

Long bets: ASX and A50 with HSCEI next in line (for now a relative long) Short bets: Taiwan, Nikkei, Korea with India flirting with the 15k pivot....

Thomas Schroeder

Top Asian Shorts to Hit the Acceleration Button

Top shorts in Asia responding in line - HK, Nikkei, Taiwan and India next in line. Some key support points are or about to give way that will usher...

Thomas Schroeder