Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<div><div><div>Let me begin by revisiting the road map for the bear market in EM equities which I first outlined in my role as EM equity strategist for Deutsche Bank towards the end of 2010 and the start of 2011, at a time when the consensus outlook for EM economies and equities was almost unanimously bullish.</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>I made a number of tentative predictions and recommendations, which were generally greeted with a combination of indifference and skepticism and on occasion outright hostility among most, though not quite all of the bank&rsquo;s clients.</div><div>&nbsp;</div></div></div><div><div><strong>It seems that we may now be entering the final stage of EM relative underperformance, in line with our expectations in our initiation last year where we posited the relative trade was 2/3rds through.</strong></div></div>

Let me begin by revisiting the road map for the bear market in EM equities which I first outlined in my role as EM equity strategist for Deutsche Bank towards the end of 2010 and the start of 2011, at a time when the consensus outlook for EM economies and equities was almost unanimously bullish.&nbsp;I made a number of tentative predictions and recommendations, which were generally greeted with a combination of indifference and skepticism and on occasion outright hostility among most, though not quite all of the bank&rsquo;s clients.&nbsp;It seems that we may now be entering the final stage of EM relative underperformance, in line with our expectations in our initiation last year where we posited the relative trade was 2/3rds through.

A Roadmap of the EM Bear Market and Three Myths about the China Bull Market

Chairman, sgtradex

Tan Chin-Hwee

Chairman

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The discourse on Asia&rsquo;s &ldquo;rise&rdquo; is dominated by China and India, countries whose vast populations and buoyant economies have captured the imagination of international investors, journalists and policy analysts.</p><p>&ldquo;Chindia&rdquo;-scented rhetoric abounds with catchphrases that state the obvious, but whose import is less so. China has the hardware, India the software; India needs China&rsquo;s roads, China could do with India&rsquo;s political inclusiveness. <em>Given how fundamentally different India and China are, though, such &ldquo;lessons learnt&rdquo; are of limited value.</em></p><p><em><strong>The more relevant comparison in Asia &ndash; and one with enormous implications for the global economy &ndash; is between India and its civilisational sibling, Indonesia.</strong></em> These two eclectic democracies share more in common than India and China, yet they are rarely hyphenated.</p><p>Last year&rsquo;s elections saw the elevation of a new breed of popular leader in both countries. Narendra Modi, whose family ran a tea stall, has risen from near the bottom of India&rsquo;s caste and class hierarchies. Joko Widodo is from a similarly underprivileged background.</p>

The discourse on Asia&rsquo;s &ldquo;rise&rdquo; is dominated by China and India, countries whose vast populations and buoyant economies have captured the imagination of international investors, journalists and policy analysts.&ldquo;Chindia&rdquo;-scented rhetoric abounds with catchphrases that state the obvious, but whose import is less so. China has the hardware, India the software; India needs China&rsquo;s roads, China could do with India&rsquo;s political inclusiveness. Given how fundamentally different India and China are, though, such &ldquo;lessons learnt&rdquo; are of limited value.The more relevant comparison in Asia &ndash; and one with enormous implications for the global economy &ndash; is between India and its civilisational sibling, Indonesia. These two eclectic democracies share more in common than India and China, yet they are rarely hyphenated.Last year&rsquo;s elections saw the elevation of a new breed of popular leader in both countries. Narendra Modi, whose family ran a tea stall, has risen from near the bottom of India&rsquo;s caste and class hierarchies. Joko Widodo is from a similarly underprivileged background.

The Rise of Asia: India and Indonesia's Shared Challenges and Opportunities.

Ex-Buyside Principal, now doing Independent Secondary Research on Indian Equities

Pawan Sachdeva

<p>This work has been done to look at:</p><ol><li>How finances of state of Karnataka have moved over last decade ?</li><li>Detailed Break Up of Revenue, Expenditure, Capital Expenditure and subsidies  </li><li>Key Budget Comments on Drinking Water, Energy etc.</li></ol><p>Who will have have interest in reading this presentation</p><ul><li>Some one who follows Indian Economy</li><li>Some one looking at Karnataka State as “area of operation” in any field.</li></ul>

This work has been done to look at:How finances of state of Karnataka have moved over last decade ?Detailed Break Up of Revenue, Expenditure, Capital Expenditure and subsidies  Key Budget Comments on Drinking Water, Energy etc.Who will have have interest in reading this presentationSome one who follows Indian EconomySome one looking at Karnataka State as “area of operation” in any field.

A close look at the Financials and Budget of Karnataka State

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

A Roadmap of the EM Bear Market and Three Myths about the China Bull Market

Let me begin by revisiting the road map for the bear market in EM equities which I first outlined in my role as EM equity strategist for Deutsche...

John-Paul Smith

The Rise of Asia: India and Indonesia's Shared Challenges and Opportunities.

The discourse on Asia’s “rise” is dominated by China and India, countries whose vast populations and buoyant economies have captured the...

Tan Chin-Hwee

A close look at the Financials and Budget of Karnataka State

This work has been done to look at: How finances of state of Karnataka have moved over last decade ? Detailed Break Up of Revenue, Expenditure,...

Pawan Sachdeva