Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener"><strong>NIFTY Index</strong> (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener"><strong>NSE Nifty Bank Index</strong> (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)</a> reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.</li>
<li>Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.</li>
<li>Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/federal-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11784:1" rel="noopener">Federal Bank (FB IN)),</a>or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY) reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.
Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.
Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (Federal Bank (FB IN)),or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.


EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

<ul>
<li>Implied Volatilities (IVs) have stabilized over the past few weeks &amp; look to be in the early stages of an uptrend. </li>
<li>Breakdown in Spot-Vol correlation - higher IVs at a time when Equity Indices are flirting with All-time-Highs.</li>
<li>Skew compression in BankNifty Options driven by call-buying on the break above 49000, further exacerbated by pre-election demand for June &amp; July expiries. </li>
</ul>


Implied Volatilities (IVs) have stabilized over the past few weeks &amp; look to be in the early stages of an uptrend. 
Breakdown in Spot-Vol correlation - higher IVs at a time when Equity Indices are flirting with All-time-Highs.
Skew compression in BankNifty Options driven by call-buying on the break above 49000, further exacerbated by pre-election demand for June &amp; July expiries. 


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 29-Apr-24 to 03-May-24

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> kept rising for the past few months but has stalled its advance since March. It may be about to pullback and lose some gains, in May.</li>
<li>The index is currently up 2 weeks in a row, not yet strongly overbought but our model say that from a time perspective it could start to pullback next week. </li>
<li>If the index does not start to pullback soon, it could rally for another 2-3 weeks.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index kept rising for the past few months but has stalled its advance since March. It may be about to pullback and lose some gains, in May.
The index is currently up 2 weeks in a row, not yet strongly overbought but our model say that from a time perspective it could start to pullback next week. 
If the index does not start to pullback soon, it could rally for another 2-3 weeks.


EQD | The NIFTY May Be About to Start A Come Down

<ul>
<li>SEBI extends cross-margining discounts to correlated assets with different maturities - Dispersion trading &amp; vol arb strategies to benefit. </li>
<li>In spite of upcoming tier-1 event risks the vol surface has flattened  dramatically. Current IV levels are supportive of a continued "High &amp; Down" vol state.</li>
<li>Curve steepening seen in Nifty50 IVs. Unusual kinked-shaped in BankNifty term structure has normalized - vol curve now has a uniform orientation.</li>
</ul>


SEBI extends cross-margining discounts to correlated assets with different maturities - Dispersion trading &amp; vol arb strategies to benefit. 
In spite of upcoming tier-1 event risks the vol surface has flattened  dramatically. Current IV levels are supportive of a continued "High &amp; Down" vol state.
Curve steepening seen in Nifty50 IVs. Unusual kinked-shaped in BankNifty term structure has normalized - vol curve now has a uniform orientation.


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 22-Apr-24 to 26-Apr-24

<ul>
<li>Unprecedented levels of FII option-buying &amp; increasing geo-political risk causing IVs to re-price higher.</li>
<li>Skew/ Smile characteristics of the Vol Surface reflect increased risk aversion but not it panic mode - yet.</li>
<li>BankNifty IVs exhibiting unusual "kink-in-the-curve". Enter barbell structures to position for reversion in curve shape.</li>
</ul>


Unprecedented levels of FII option-buying &amp; increasing geo-political risk causing IVs to re-price higher.
Skew/ Smile characteristics of the Vol Surface reflect increased risk aversion but not it panic mode - yet.
BankNifty IVs exhibiting unusual "kink-in-the-curve". Enter barbell structures to position for reversion in curve shape.


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

The NSE Nifty Bank Index hit a record high in September 2024 but has since dropped. Option opportunities are found in resilient or volatile bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 29-Apr-24 to 03-May-24

End of the downtrend in IVs? Will Vol regime switch from "High & Down" to "High & Up"? Vol market seems to be at an inflection point with Election...

AceGama Advisors

EQD | The NIFTY May Be About to Start A Come Down

The NIFTY Index's rally has stalled: a pullback may be about to begin and could lead the index down in May. The alternative scenario would be a...

Nico Rosti

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 22-Apr-24 to 26-Apr-24

Dispersion trading/ Vol arb to get a boost from new margin rules. Nifty50 vol surface flattens in-spite of major event risk & term structure...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24

FII option-buying and geopolitical events driving IVs higher. Skew/ Smile reflect heightened risk aversion but not in panic mode - yet. BankNifty...

AceGama Advisors

EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

The NSE Nifty Bank Index hit a record high in September 2024 but has since dropped. Option opportunities are found in resilient or volatile bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 29-Apr-24 to 03-May-24

End of the downtrend in IVs? Will Vol regime switch from "High & Down" to "High & Up"? Vol market seems to be at an inflection point with Election...

AceGama Advisors

EQD | The NIFTY May Be About to Start A Come Down

The NIFTY Index's rally has stalled: a pullback may be about to begin and could lead the index down in May. The alternative scenario would be a...

Nico Rosti

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 22-Apr-24 to 26-Apr-24

Dispersion trading/ Vol arb to get a boost from new margin rules. Nifty50 vol surface flattens in-spite of major event risk & term structure...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24

​FII option-buying and geopolitical events driving IVs higher. Skew/ Smile reflect heightened risk aversion but not in panic mode - yet. BankNifty...

AceGama Advisors

FII option-buying and geopolitical events driving IVs higher. Skew/ Smile reflect heightened risk aversion but not in panic mode - yet. BankNifty...