Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>IVs were crushed in the aftermath of Election results &amp; in spite of lingering political instability &amp; significant moves in RV.</li>
<li>Vol-Regime Switching Model is holding at "High &amp; Up" state. Probability of switching to "High &amp; Down" state has increased significantly.</li>
<li>Vol term structure is still in Backwardation - should transition to Contango as IV &amp; RV drift lower.</li>
</ul>


IVs were crushed in the aftermath of Election results &amp; in spite of lingering political instability &amp; significant moves in RV.
Vol-Regime Switching Model is holding at "High &amp; Up" state. Probability of switching to "High &amp; Down" state has increased significantly.
Vol term structure is still in Backwardation - should transition to Contango as IV &amp; RV drift lower.


EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Crushed Post Elections but Realized Vol Does Not Disappoint

<ul>
<li>Multiple factors help IVs stabilize after last week's spike. "High &amp; Up" vol state to persist until elections results on 04-June-2024.</li>
<li>SEBI makes changes to Dynamic Price-band Mechanism. Will impact options market-making &amp; should have an overall Vol suppressing effect. </li>
<li>Nifty50 10-delta Risk-reversals extend to -8.5% as the Index reaches 23000. Risk-premia favouring puts over calls is looking over-extended.</li>
</ul>


Multiple factors help IVs stabilize after last week's spike. "High &amp; Up" vol state to persist until elections results on 04-June-2024.
SEBI makes changes to Dynamic Price-band Mechanism. Will impact options market-making &amp; should have an overall Vol suppressing effect. 
Nifty50 10-delta Risk-reversals extend to -8.5% as the Index reaches 23000. Risk-premia favouring puts over calls is looking over-extended.


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 20-May-24 to 24-May-24

<ul>
<li>Curtail Short Gamma &amp; Short Vega exposure as Vol-regime has switched to "High &amp; Up" state.  </li>
<li>Short-Dated IVs traded markedly lower, driven by recovering equities &amp; the 20-May market holiday</li>
<li>Nifty50 vol curve is exhibiting unusual kinked shape. Monthly IVs are commanding a large vol markup relative to rest of the curve. </li>
</ul>


Curtail Short Gamma &amp; Short Vega exposure as Vol-regime has switched to "High &amp; Up" state.  
Short-Dated IVs traded markedly lower, driven by recovering equities &amp; the 20-May market holiday
Nifty50 vol curve is exhibiting unusual kinked shape. Monthly IVs are commanding a large vol markup relative to rest of the curve. 


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 13-May-24 to 17-May-24

<ul>
<li>Election-Related volatility being reflected in options. India VIX has surged 70% over the past two weeks. Quarterly IVs have seen the largest rise as they capture election result date.</li>
<li>BankNifty IVs are finally responding as the market plays catch up to the bank regulator's new-found aggressiveness</li>
<li>Elevated Vol-of-vol observed the past few weeks. Vol-regime Switching Model continues to point to "High &amp; Down" state. Odds of switching to a "High &amp; Up" state are increasing.</li>
</ul>


Election-Related volatility being reflected in options. India VIX has surged 70% over the past two weeks. Quarterly IVs have seen the largest rise as they capture election result date.
BankNifty IVs are finally responding as the market plays catch up to the bank regulator's new-found aggressiveness
Elevated Vol-of-vol observed the past few weeks. Vol-regime Switching Model continues to point to "High &amp; Down" state. Odds of switching to a "High &amp; Up" state are increasing.


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 06-May-24 to 10-May-24

<ul>
<li>Implied Volatilities (IVs) have stabilized over the past few weeks &amp; look to be in the early stages of an uptrend. </li>
<li>Breakdown in Spot-Vol correlation - higher IVs at a time when Equity Indices are flirting with All-time-Highs.</li>
<li>Skew compression in BankNifty Options driven by call-buying on the break above 49000, further exacerbated by pre-election demand for June &amp; July expiries. </li>
</ul>


Implied Volatilities (IVs) have stabilized over the past few weeks &amp; look to be in the early stages of an uptrend. 
Breakdown in Spot-Vol correlation - higher IVs at a time when Equity Indices are flirting with All-time-Highs.
Skew compression in BankNifty Options driven by call-buying on the break above 49000, further exacerbated by pre-election demand for June &amp; July expiries. 


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 29-Apr-24 to 03-May-24

India

Nifty Bank Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of the most liquid and large capitalized Indian Banking stocks. The index will have 12 stocks from the banking sector, which trade on the National Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 1000 as of January 1, 2000.

NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)

EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Crushed Post Elections but Realized Vol Does Not Disappoint

IVs get crushed post-elections in spite of lingering political instability & large trading ranges. Vol regime remains "High & Up". Vol term...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 20-May-24 to 24-May-24

IVs stabilize post-spike but high vol state will last until election results. SEBI changes to impact options market-making, Nifty50 risk-reversals...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 13-May-24 to 17-May-24

Vol-regime has switched to "High & Up" state. Reduce Short Gamma & Short Vega exposure. Short-Dated IVs softer on account of market holiday....

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 06-May-24 to 10-May-24

IVs have surged due to election-related uncertainty. BankNifty options market finally responding to RBI aggression. Vol-of-vol is elevated but...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 29-Apr-24 to 03-May-24

End of the downtrend in IVs? Will Vol regime switch from "High & Down" to "High & Up"? Vol market seems to be at an inflection point with Election...

AceGama Advisors

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Crushed Post Elections but Realized Vol Does Not Disappoint

IVs get crushed post-elections in spite of lingering political instability & large trading ranges. Vol regime remains "High & Up". Vol term...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 20-May-24 to 24-May-24

​IVs stabilize post-spike but high vol state will last until election results. SEBI changes to impact options market-making, Nifty50 risk-reversals...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 13-May-24 to 17-May-24

Vol-regime has switched to "High & Up" state. ​Reduce Short Gamma & Short Vega exposure. Short-Dated IVs softer on account of market holiday....

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 06-May-24 to 10-May-24

IVs have surged due to election-related uncertainty. BankNifty options market finally responding to RBI aggression. Vol-of-vol is elevated but...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 29-Apr-24 to 03-May-24

End of the downtrend in IVs? Will Vol regime switch from "High & Down" to "High & Up"? Vol market seems to be at an inflection point with Election...

AceGama Advisors

IVs stabilize post-spike but high vol state will last until election results. SEBI changes to impact options market-making, Nifty50 risk-reversals...

Vol-regime has switched to "High & Up" state. Reduce Short Gamma & Short Vega exposure. Short-Dated IVs softer on account of market holiday....