Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The September 2024 Rebalance results for the NIFTY broad market Indices were announced after the close on Friday 23rd August 2024.</li>
<li>There will be two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 during the September 2024 index rebal event. All of these changes were as predicted. </li>
<li>All NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 changes will also be reflected in the NIFTY Next 50 index which could see US$647mn one-way capping flows.</li>
</ul>


The September 2024 Rebalance results for the NIFTY broad market Indices were announced after the close on Friday 23rd August 2024.
There will be two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100 during the September 2024 index rebal event. All of these changes were as predicted. 
All NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 changes will also be reflected in the NIFTY Next 50 index which could see US$647mn one-way capping flows.


Quiddity NIFTY Sep 24 Rebal: US$647mn One-Way Capping for NIFTY Next 50; All Changes Were Predicted

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 27 September. Changes are on expected lines.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> is 19.6% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 63.64bn (US$759m). Many stocks have over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes this year but there has been big underperformance over the last month as stocks expected to benefit from rural spending have rallied.</li>
</ul>


There are 7 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 27 September. Changes are on expected lines.
Estimated one-way turnover for the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) is 19.6% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 63.64bn (US$759m). Many stocks have over 1x ADV to trade.
The adds have outperformed the deletes this year but there has been big underperformance over the last month as stocks expected to benefit from rural spending have rallied.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: 7 Changes on Expected Lines

<ul>
<li>There are 19 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). With US$40.1bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes this year, though near-term performance has been meh. There was a similar trend in March and the adds could outperform nearer to implementation.</li>
</ul>


There are 19 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). With US$40.1bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes this year, though near-term performance has been meh. There was a similar trend in March and the adds could outperform nearer to implementation.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>With three more trading days left in the reference period, we are presenting our final  expectations for ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see five changes for the NIFTY 100 index which will also affect the NIFTY Next 50 index. There could also be multiple changes for the NIFTY 50 index.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
With three more trading days left in the reference period, we are presenting our final  expectations for ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.
We see five changes for the NIFTY 100 index which will also affect the NIFTY Next 50 index. There could also be multiple changes for the NIFTY 50 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Bangladesh, India's <strong>2nd largest trading partner</strong> in Asia is under a political crisis leading to instability and uncertainty. </li>
<li>Companies impacted by Bangladesh Crisis in India across sectors and across market caps listed below. </li>
<li>There might be short-term impact, but in long run, there would not be much impact as overall exposure is not that much.</li>
</ul>


Bangladesh, India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia is under a political crisis leading to instability and uncertainty. 
Companies impacted by Bangladesh Crisis in India across sectors and across market caps listed below. 
There might be short-term impact, but in long run, there would not be much impact as overall exposure is not that much.


Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

India

NHPC Ltd is a hydro-power development company based in India. The Company has constructed approximately 11 hydro-power projects in India and abroad with a total installed capacity of 2554.35 MW.

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NHPC (NHPC IN)

Quiddity NIFTY Sep 24 Rebal: US$647mn One-Way Capping for NIFTY Next 50; All Changes Were Predicted

The NIFTY50/NIFTY Next 50 Inclusion/Exclusion events will take place at the close of 27th September 2024. The final capping flows will be decided...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: 7 Changes on Expected Lines

There are 7 changes for the NIFTY Next50 Index. Estimated 1-way turnover is 19.6% resulting in a 1-way trade of INR 63.64bn (US$759m). There are...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 19 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). There are many...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas

The official index changes for the NIFTY September 2024 index rebal event will be confirmed after market close on Friday 23rd August 2024. In this...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

Political crisis in Bangladesh is causing instability, impacting India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia. Companies may see short-term...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity NIFTY Sep 24 Rebal: US$647mn One-Way Capping for NIFTY Next 50; All Changes Were Predicted

The NIFTY50/NIFTY Next 50 Inclusion/Exclusion events will take place at the close of 27th September 2024. The final capping flows will be decided...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: 7 Changes on Expected Lines

There are 7 changes for the NIFTY Next50 Index. Estimated 1-way turnover is 19.6% resulting in a 1-way trade of INR 63.64bn (US$759m). There are...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 19 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). There are many...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas

The official index changes for the NIFTY September 2024 index rebal event will be confirmed after market close on Friday 23rd August 2024. In this...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Bangladesh Chaos: Impact on Indian Companies

​Political crisis in Bangladesh is causing instability, impacting India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia. Companies may see short-term...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Political crisis in Bangladesh is causing instability, impacting India's 2nd largest trading partner in Asia. Companies may see short-term...