Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to expect for the more late bloomers.  The former group includes more foreign names and less mainstream banks. The latter group includes the large SOE banks and mainstream large banks.Along with a risk of rising NPLs, China's banks will also have to face liquidity, capital and off-balance sheet risks.

Special Situations, Content Strategist, Smartkarma

Crispin Francis

Special Situations, Content Strategist

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

I previously wrote on the privatization of New World China Land ("NWCL") by New World Development ("NWD"). In my last insights, the focus was on NWCL. This time around, I turn my attention to NWD which is trading at a substantial discount to its NAV.<ul><li>NWD privatization of NWCL at a price below its RNAV widens NWD's discount to NAV</li><li>Taking full control of NWCL reduces inefficiency in the its current holding structure; and</li><li>Taking full control of NWCL also removes the non-compete clause that NWD has in place with NWCL.</li></ul>From our pro-forma analysis, the privatization of NWCL results in a net uplift of NWD's NAV. In addition, the discount that the market applied to NWCL value under NWD will be removed, this should lead to NWD outperforming...

I previously wrote on the privatization of New World China Land ("NWCL") by New World Development ("NWD"). In my last insights, the focus was on NWCL. This time around, I turn my attention to NWD which is trading at a substantial discount to its NAV.NWD privatization of NWCL at a price below its RNAV widens NWD's discount to NAVTaking full control of NWCL reduces inefficiency in the its current holding structure; andTaking full control of NWCL also removes the non-compete clause that NWD has in place with NWCL.From our pro-forma analysis, the privatization of NWCL results in a net uplift of NWD's NAV. In addition, the discount that the market applied to NWCL value under NWD will be removed, this should lead to NWD outperforming...

New World - Huge Discount to NAV with a Hard Catalyst on Its Way

<h2>Recap</h2>The initial piece can be found <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-world-group-new-year-new-world" target="_blank">here</a> or on the right hand side where linked insights are shown.I discussed these major points in the initial piece:<ol>
<li>History of the 1st failed privatization attempt by New World Development</li>
<li>New World Group's background and financial performance</li>
<li>Asset sales to Evergrande</li>
<li>Possible offer range; and</li>
<li>Possible transaction structure </li>
</ol><h2>Latest News</h2>6 Jan 2015, New World China Land ("NWCL") and New World Development jointly announced a voluntary conditional cash for all of NWCL…

RecapThe initial piece can be found here or on the right hand side where linked insights are shown.I discussed these major points in the initial piece:
History of the 1st failed privatization attempt by New World Development
New World Group's background and financial performance
Asset sales to Evergrande
Possible offer range; and
Possible transaction structure 
Latest News6 Jan 2015, New World China Land ("NWCL") and New World Development jointly announced a voluntary conditional cash for all of NWCL…

4 Jan 2016, New World China Land Limited (917 HK), <a href="http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2016/0104/LTN20160104135.PDF" target="_blank">requested</a> a suspension of trading in its shares in relation to a matter under The Codes on Takeovers and Mergers.Shortly after, there were reports that New World Development (17 HK) could be planning a privatization offer for NWCL. If true, this would be the second time they are attempting a privatization of NWCL after its failed attempt back in spring 2014.Although 99.84% of votes was in favor of the scheme, the first attempt failed due to the headcount rule which applies to Cayman Island Companies.There was a large increase in the number of book entry shareholders with miniscule holdings, many registered to the same addresses. Second time lucky... perhaps?

4 Jan 2016, New World China Land Limited (917 HK), requested a suspension of trading in its shares in relation to a matter under The Codes on Takeovers and Mergers.Shortly after, there were reports that New World Development (17 HK) could be planning a privatization offer for NWCL. If true, this would be the second time they are attempting a privatization of NWCL after its failed attempt back in spring 2014.Although 99.84% of votes was in favor of the scheme, the first attempt failed due to the headcount rule which applies to Cayman Island Companies.There was a large increase in the number of book entry shareholders with miniscule holdings, many registered to the same addresses. Second time lucky... perhaps?

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On July 7, HKMA announced measures to ease property based lending. The major changes involve relaxation of LTVs, according to property values</li>
<li>We see these policies target the up-graders and will support the residential market. Housing price has been on a decline trend since early 2022</li>
<li>Residential developers are trading at attractive valuation.  In particular, we see a lot of upside for 17 HK NWD and 101 HK HLP</li>
</ul>


On July 7, HKMA announced measures to ease property based lending. The major changes involve relaxation of LTVs, according to property values
We see these policies target the up-graders and will support the residential market. Housing price has been on a decline trend since early 2022
Residential developers are trading at attractive valuation.  In particular, we see a lot of upside for 17 HK NWD and 101 HK HLP


Short Note: HK RE – Supportive Mortgage Policy, Resi Developers Are Trading at Trough Valuation

Hong Kong

New World Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties, provides contracting services, property management, and transportation services.  The Company also operates infrastructure business, telecommunication services, department stores, hotels and restaurants, and media and technology business.

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New World Development (17 HK)

It Is All Playing Out with China's Banks

The NPL crisis is upon us in China. It’s playing out even if it appears slow.Some of the first movers to show NPLs provide a guide as to what to...

Daniel Tabbush

New World - Huge Discount to NAV with a Hard Catalyst on Its Way

I previously wrote on the privatization of New World China Land ("NWCL") by New World Development ("NWD"). In my last insights, the focus was on...

Crispin Francis

New World Group - It Is Official

RecapThe initial piece can be found here or on the right hand side where linked insights are shown.I discussed these major points in the initial...

Crispin Francis

New World Group - New Year, New World?

4 Jan 2016, New World China Land Limited (917 HK), requested a suspension of trading in its shares in relation to a matter under The Codes on...

Crispin Francis

Short Note: HK RE – Supportive Mortgage Policy, Resi Developers Are Trading at Trough Valuation

HKMA announced policies regarding housing mortgage LTVs. We believe these policies target upgraders, and will support the residential market. ...

Jacob Cheng

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